Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini is Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics (www.roubini.com).
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2010-02-15
| If Greece does not restore fiscal sustainability and competitiveness, a partial bailout by the EU and the ECB will become necessary in order to avoid the risk of contagion to the rest of the euro zone. That is why a credible IMF program that ties financial support to the progressive achievement of fiscal and structural reform goals is the right solution.... read |
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2010-01-18
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Traditionally, sovereign risk has been concentrated in emerging-market economies. But ratings downgrades, a widening of sovereign spreads, and failed public-debt auctions in countries like the UK, Greece, Ireland, and Spain provide a stark reminder that unless advanced economies begin fiscal consolidation, investors, bond-market vigilantes, and rating agencies may turn from friend to foe. ... read |
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2009-12-15
| As the price of gold has risen in recent weeks towards $1,200 an ounce and above, today’s “gold bugs” argue that the price could top $2,000. But the recent price surge looks suspiciously like a bubble, with the increase only partly justified by economic fundamentals.... read |
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2009-11-16
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While the US recently reported 3.5% GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that the most severe recession since the Great Depression is over, the American economy is actually much weaker than official data suggest. The story of the US is one of two economies – a smaller one that is slowly recovering and a larger one that is still in a deep and persistent downturn.... read |
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2009-10-15
| One piece of conventional wisdom that has escaped the global economic crisis relatively unscathed is the assumption that the “BRIC” countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – will increasingly call the economic tune in years to come. But the crisis has exposed one of the four as an impostor.... read |
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2009-09-14
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It is now clear that massive fiscal and monetary easing, together with support of the financial system, has prevented the global economic recession from deteriorating into a depression. But it is just as clear that no recovery can be sustained if governments botch the exit strategy from reliance on large budget deficits and a rapid run-up in public debt.... read |
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2009-08-14
| Today’s consensus among economists is that the recession is already over, that the US and global economy will rapidly return to growth, and that there is no risk off a relapse. But the end of the global recession will be closer at the end of this year than it is now, the recovery will be anemic rather than robust, and there is a rising risk of a double-dip recession.... read |
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2009-07-15
| Recent data suggest that job market conditions are not improving in the US and other advanced economies. But raw figures on job losses, bad as they are, actually understate the weakness in world labor markets, increasing the threat of a double-dip W-shaped recession. ... read |
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2009-06-16
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In the past three months, global asset prices have rebounded sharply, reflecting investors' growing expectations of economic recovery. But, despite an improvement in economic fundamentals, the role of less sustainable factors is equally clear, while the sharp rise in some asset prices threatens the recovery of a global economy that has yet to hit bottom. ... read |
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Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds?
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Nouriel Roubini 
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Recent data suggest that the rate of economic contraction in the world economy is slowing down, and that we are closer to the global recession’s trough. But a host of factors could turn "green shoots" of recovery into "yellow weeds" of disappointingly slow growth in the medium term.... read
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2009-02-13
| Nationalizing insolvent banks is, paradoxically, the most market-friendly way to clean up a rotten financial sector. Whereas Sweden adopted this approach successfully during its banking crisis in the early 1990’s, the current US and British approach may end up producing Japanese-style zombie banks – never properly restructured and perpetuating a credit freeze for years. ... read |
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2008-10-14
| When policy actions don’t provide relief to market participants, you know that you are one step away from a collapse of the financial system and the corporate sector. Will the recent measures adopted by the US and Europe be enough to ward off a global depression?... read |
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2009-12-15
| As the price of gold has risen in recent weeks towards $1,200 an ounce and above, today’s “gold bugs” argue that the price could top $2,000. But the recent price surge looks suspiciously like a bubble, with the increase only partly justified by economic fundamentals.... read |
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2008-08-13
| The probability is growing that the global economy – not just the United States – will experience a serious recession. And, while global contraction will ultimately force central banks to cut interest rates, the policy response will be too little, and will come too late, to prevent it.... read |
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2008-02-15
| America’s financial crisis has triggered a severe credit crunch that is making the US recession worse, while the deepening recession is leading to larger losses in financial markets. As a result of this vicious circle, the risk that a systemic financial crisis will drive to a more pronounced US and global recession is becoming an increasingly plausible scenario.... read |
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2008-12-12
| Policymakers must now worry about a strange beast called “stag-deflation” (a combination of economic stagnation/recession and deflation). That means they also have to worry about about liquidity traps (when montary policy becomes ineffective) and debt deflation (when the rising real value of nominal debts threatens households, firms, financial institutions, and governments).... read |
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2010-01-18
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Traditionally, sovereign risk has been concentrated in emerging-market economies. But ratings downgrades, a widening of sovereign spreads, and failed public-debt auctions in countries like the UK, Greece, Ireland, and Spain provide a stark reminder that unless advanced economies begin fiscal consolidation, investors, bond-market vigilantes, and rating agencies may turn from friend to foe. ... read |
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2008-10-14
| When policy actions don’t provide relief to market participants, you know that you are one step away from a collapse of the financial system and the corporate sector. Will the recent measures adopted by the US and Europe be enough to ward off a global depression?... read |
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2008-06-13
| Is the world facing a revival of stagflation, that deadly combination of rising inflation and stagnating growth? Given the need for currency appreciation and monetary tightening in emerging-market economies, a negative supply shock – say, a war with Iran – coupled with a deflationary global demand shock (as housing bubbles go bust) is all that is required. ... read |
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2008-04-14
| Most analysts predict that the US recession will be short and shallow, implying only a slight growth slowdown for the global economy. But the scale of the crises in America's financial and housing markets, coupled with a credit crunch, suggest that the US is facing its longest and most severe recession in decades.... read |
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2007-12-17
| The global liquidity and credit crunch that started last August has become more severe. A global economic slowdown is now inevitable, because monetary policy cannot address the core problems that underlie the current crisis.... read |
2010-02-15
