Into Africa
非洲的免疫
G. Pascal Zachary
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阿克拉—越来越多的美国人丢掉了工作。英国对银行实行国有化。爱尔兰，匈牙利，冰岛等一度腾飞的小型经济体垮掉了。甚至连生机勃勃的中国和印度也在放慢增长速度，雄心被抑制，美梦正破碎。
但是，在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，却几乎看不到全球金融危机的影响，虽然这场危机正在毁掉资本主义世界。
在时髦的非洲城市，住宅房屋的价格依然高不可攀。例如，比起克里夫兰或是美国心脏地带其他城市里类似的房子，坎帕拉和阿克拉城里一栋典型的西式房屋现在的价格要高出一到两倍，这令人惊奇。 从马德里到都柏林，从迈阿密到洛杉矶，房价一路狂跌，而非洲房价却接近或者正处于有史以来的最高水平。
与此同时，比起身负重债的美国和欧洲银行，非洲银行坚如磐石。当国际银行家们因为发放了大批不良贷款而破产的时候，非洲银行家坚持采用老派方法来赚取利润：付给存款人很少的利息，同时通过购买有担保的政府债务来获得大额差价， 这些债务会带来健康稳定的回报。
和美国以及一些欧洲国家面临的巨额债务相比，甚至连政府的赤字开支—长久以来这一直是非洲的祸害—似乎也完全是微不足道的。新的奥巴马政府提出了开支计划，其中赤字超过一万亿美元，这会创下新的纪录。而这还是在刚离任的布什政府已经创下了有史以来的最高赤字之后。
尽管如此，仍然有可靠的原因让我们相信非洲和它的人民将会吞下全球危机的恶果，这只是个时间问题而已。从加纳到肯尼亚，政府为基础设施项目融资和出售政府债务时面临的困难正在增加。
近年来，外国在撒哈拉以南地区的投资创下新高，但这些投资正在撤出。这意味着投资者开始谨慎行事，他们不再掩饰对这个地区缺乏信心。向中国，印度，欧洲和美国出口原材料是非洲最近经济飙升的一个关键因素，但这种出口可能受挫，因为全球经济下滑意味着每个地区都会减少消费。
所有这些因素都表明非洲可能发生金融破产。流行的股权投资，例如Safaricom里面的股份，已经在以低得出乎意料的水平进行交易了。如果地产价格急剧下降，就会发生连锁反应，大小投资者同样受困，一段时间过后还会给许多普通非洲民众带来痛苦。
即使假设地产价格稳定，全球危机也必然会导致在外工作的非洲人士减少汇款。这些人工作优渥，呆在欧洲，美国，加拿大，澳大利亚和中东。
人们已经相信汇款额会下降，这不难理解：经济活动减缓正在，而且将要，极大伤害迁往富裕国家的移民。基于经济衰退的长度和深度，甚至移民活动本身也会急剧减少。当在富裕国家工作的非洲人数量减少时，这自然会导致在非洲国家里流动的钱也会变少
然而，减少汇款具有正反两面作用。长期以来，汇款刺激了非洲很多地方的通货膨胀。例如，一位在挪威工作的乌干达医生很少关注坎帕拉一瓶啤酒的价格。和一位当地医生相比，他愿意并且能够为接受服务—当然还有一个在乌干达的家—支付更多的钱。流入乌干达的汇款减少意味着经济活动减少，或者就是价格降低。
这场引发全球危机的美国金融崩溃不是被控制下来，就是有可能演变成新一波更致命的崩溃。新一轮的崩溃将不止会摧毁美国由交易业务和经纪业务构建的虚拟经济（paper economy），还将搞跨货物和服务构成的实体经济。总统巴拉克·奥巴马现在的行事风格就像后一种情况可能发生一样，他打赌大规模的政府开支将支撑起实体经济。如果他的政策成功了，就会相应增加非洲得以幸免的机会。
不过，即使奥巴马失败了，非洲也应该能逃出全球危机的最重灾区，其原因好坏参半。好的原因关乎非洲的自力更生，而且学者和决策者们越来越意识到地区内的贸易，尤其是非洲的城乡贸易，最终将会带来巨大的收益。
另外一个对非洲有利的因素是这里的私人公司和消费者很少依赖借来的钱。人们倾向于用现金来支付货物和服务，不论有多贵。在美国，买房买车的贷款（那些现在收不回来的贷款）是金融危机后面的主要因素。而非洲只有极少数人借钱买这些东西。
过去，非洲以现金为基础的经济阻碍了发展。毕竟，通过允许人们超前消费，借来的钱可以为经济助燃。但今天，非洲“现收现付”的习俗成了抵御金融危机蔓延的有力保障。
观察非洲自相矛盾的经济状况时，另一种方法是承认该地区历史上一直被全球金融体制边缘化，结果在世界繁荣的时候损失惨重。然而在全球最富裕的国家病入膏肓的时候，这一点反而成了是一个出人意料的益处。
G·帕斯卡尔·扎加里是《与非洲联姻：爱的故事》一书的作者。
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
www.project-syndicate.org
（翻译：余劲草）
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alykhansatchu 12:12 07 May 09
Dear Pascal,
I, for one, will certainly be buying your book. I will also be happy to interview you for my site www.rich.co.ke, if that works for you.
I commend you on teasing out the story in all its nuances. If I might add my pennys worth.
The growth story is very much in tact. I feel its a late cycle IT led [as oppose to Industrial Revolution] convergence with the Globe. That the c21st will ultimately be one where Intellectual Capital will prove the most valuable and that because of SSA's isolation, we have imputed a very low value on SSA Intellectual capital. It is in the books at a very low and egregious price. The Mobile Phone [and just look at the innovation - The Mobile Wallet and Mobile Internet and a host of new products are being established at lightning speed- MPESA is one example - By the way if you want to track the Safaricom share price you mention you can via my site www.rich.co.ke register and Level 1 Prices are free to view during trading hours 0930-1500 Kenya time - You are right the price is egregiously underpriced] and the landing of the Cables is set to massively accelerate this connection. Our People have had to make a living in adversity in many ways and are entrepreneurial, it will be like flicking a switch. Do you remember that picture of Africa the Dark Continent. Well imagine it lit up. To look in the rear view mirror is to see that darkness at the very moment that we sit on the very cusp, the inflexion point.
Modelling the future is therefore very tricky because of the disjunctive nature of the moment.
There will also be a massive Political consequence to all this. Its like jumping from the Middle Ages straight into the c21st in a very short space. The dynamic between the Rulers and The Ruled is in a major flux. The Demographics the skew to under 30 is also relevant.
I think we are also witnessing a trend change away from the slam dunk Commodity extraction trade bias towards the Consumer that you so rightly point out.
Nevertheless SSA did not enjoy even 7 fat years. We were on an accelerated curve but from a very low base. Our larders are hardly overflowing. The Tsunami wave is clearly washing up on our shores. As Gideon Gono Economics goes from the deep fringe to the deep centre and Bernanke and Mervyn King print money like there is no tomorrow, we too are seeing a slow down and it is clear we need to mitigate this.
Hindsight has shown that our Stock markets fell further than EM and Developing markets as Fast Money hit the ejector button. This created a FAT TAIL and in order to exit this we need to re ignite things, otherwise the near term trough will be a lot deeper.
As the World talks of Smart Infrastructure, the one thing I know is that Leap frog Infrastructure spend right now will pay off many times over. It will cement the cross border SSA activity and bring efficiencies to the Continent and it will have a deep and positive African dynamic.
To wit I think Africa needs to put a Marshall Plan for Africa that starts with the following premise. We will build 6 lane highways from the Cape to Cairo, from East to West and we will join all points in between. We will build high speed railways along side. The markets are certain to come. Moreover, we will need no less than $100b. For that we will securitise the toll receipts and rail receipts. We will provide real time data. It will be smart software and transparent. The money will come. We wil have Continent wide oversight and once the thing is off the ground Each State will be given their piece. Not Free because AID [for the most part] has just created this overarching Bureaucracy [Both in the Recipient Country and at a supra national level] who sit atop and stifle the African Entrepreneur.
We need to do it now.
CARPE DIEM
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
Nairobi