Friday, October 31, 2014
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谁的世界银行?

纽约—美国总统奥巴马提名金辰勇为世界银行行长之举受到了广泛好评——理应如此,特别是其他提名也已昭告天下之时。金辰勇是公共卫生专家,现任达特茅斯大学校长,此前曾担任过世界卫生组织艾滋病部门。这是一个相当好的候选人。但候选人的国籍以及提名国——不管是大是小、是穷是富——不应该在人选决定中起到任何作用。

世界银行的11名新兴和发展中国家执行董事已经提出了两位优秀的候选人:尼日利亚的奥孔乔-伊韦拉和哥伦比亚的奥坎波。我和这两人都有过共事。两人都是第一流的人才,在多个部门担任过部长,在多边组织担任过要职且取得过令人称道的表现,也拥有出色胜任所需要的外交技能和职业素养。他们懂金融和经济、明了世界银行的基本结构,也拥有能改善世行效率所需要的人脉。

奥孔乔-伊韦拉很了解世界银行的内幕。奥坎波和金辰勇都是外部人士,这有利也有弊;但奥坎波作为哥伦比亚大学的杰出教授对世界银行是相当熟悉的。他以前不但是经济和财政部长,也当过农业部长——考虑到发展中国家的大部分穷人都得依靠务农生活,这是相当重要的资历。他在环境方面也有令人印象深刻的经历,这契合世行的另一大关键职责。

奥孔乔-伊韦拉和奥坎波都明白国际金融机构在全球公共品供给方面的重要作用。在两人的职业生涯中,大量心血都奉献给了发展和完成世行消除贫困的任务。对于任何美国候选人,他们都是相当高的标杆。

需要考虑的方面很多。发展中国家仍有20亿人口生活在贫困之中,世界银行不可能单枪匹马解决这个问题,但需要担起领导之责。世界银行虽然挂着一个“银行”的名字,但其主要职责是国际发展机构。金辰勇的专长——公共卫生——相当关键,世行产期以来也一直支持着该领域的创新活动。但卫生在世行的“组合”中只是一个次要部分,而且通常只是配合其他在医药领域领先的专业伙伴。

各路消息表明,美国可能会坚持要求有悖常理的选人程序,坚持世行行长人选由它确定,这样做的唯一原因是2012是选举年,奥巴马的对手会将美国人不能问鼎世行行长宝座夸大为奥巴马示弱的表现。此外,保持对该职位的控制之于美国要比获得该职位之于新兴和发展中国家更重要。

事实上,新兴市场中实力较强者知道如何在现有体系中生存,并能利用现有体系。它们可以获得一张白条,用之换取更加重要的东西。眼下,现实政治已使得行长人选指正毫无悬念,美国人将最终获选。问题是代价多大。

如果美国坚持死握行长选择过程控制权不放,那么受害的将是世行自身。多年来,世界银行的效益一直受着牵累,因为它在一定程度上被视为是西方政府及其金融和公司部门的工具。讽刺的是,就算是从美国的长期利益出发,最优选择也是作出唯才是举、改善治理的承诺——不仅仅是口头承诺,还要见诸实践。

G20的一个预期成果是达成关于国际金融机构治理改革的协议,其中最重要的部分就是领导人的选择。如今,发展专家大体上都来自新兴和发展中国家——毕竟,这些国家生活在发展中——因此,世界银行行长应该出自这些国家中的一个似乎是理所当然的。维持发达国家的小算盘——美国人把持世界银行、欧洲人把持IMF——在今天看来早已落后与时代,实在令人难以理解,因为世界银行和IMF正在日益依靠新兴市场作为资金来源。

美国、国际社会和世界银行自身一再强调改善治理的重要性,但行长任命权实际归属美国总统这一事实让这一切看上去颇为可笑。

奥孔乔-伊韦拉在接受《金融时报》采访时强有力地批评了这一问题:一切充满了伪善。发达工业国——它们在世界银行投票中占据着多数——的团结度正在接受考验。

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  1. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134: Whose World Bank?

    French Finance Minister Francois Baroin, have gone even further, claiming that Europe “has done its part,” and that it is now up to other countries to do theirs.

    What would Mr. Baroin expected in the outcome of the stronger Euro at 1.3 to a dollar? Since it sounds relevant to the strength of its Euros, it is the first haircut to foreigners’ currencies under the 1% bank loan credits. Does your investment lose itself through the processes of fiat Euros? Perhaps, Mr. Baroin knew the stock is coming to an adjustment, then, the other countries should dump the Stock and buy their bonds and compress 50—75% off their investment since ECB and IMF from getting their 2 trillion equity or credits for salvage the EU debts.
    Some are disgust at the déjà vu again, it is not even July; but some may reminiscent of “October” as EFSF failed to aggregate a targeted capacity again. Just after the sale in Spain’s debt failed its target sum, and Greece future is bleak, so is the PIIGS. The ECB also said the interest rate on its deposit facility would remain at 0.25 percent, and the rate on the marginal lending facility would stay at 1.75 percent. The market reacted in the credit crunch that the Dow Jones in sliding off 13000 after China stocks cut 3% to apply in its financial lookouts.

    There is a crack in the dollar at 76 to 79 the jump in Dow Jones by 20% after the 9600. Swiss banks are forced to purchase its bonds because their overloads of Euros currency that included debts and credits, some said of CDS tradeoff. I do not blame them if I saw yahoo cut 2000 employments, Best buy closed 1500 stores, Sears closed 150 stores that many may see as correction to globalization, but certainly not a recommended formula for employment. In addition, the Brazil is not bending on the inflow of US to more acquisition and merger, and BRICS is raising its criticism on the equitable currency exchange under the throw weight system of IMF. It is plainly disadvantage to their floating rate currency and high inflation with higher interest rate; when EU and FED margin its free flow of credits at 1-1.75% at high 1.3 to a dollar. It is questionable on free trade issue and equitable trade principle.

    In the last days on the Greek debts interest rate jumped and Spain’s debt came short in sale. More and more investors are questioning on the downturn on the Stock markets that I believe the credit crunch resurface in the EU banks which suffered from the contraction of the China’s growth at 7.5% from 9%, and overshadowed by its trade deficit from January; in addition, the currencies exchanges rates are shifting their compatibilities after the effects of protectionism and inflation roaming.

    Consequently, dumping of Euros is inevitable even if those debts are traded. However, the extended additional debts make the system worse than before the Bael II with lesser growth.

    Some would question if EU and US could have their 54% votes to the World Bank in choosing its chief; and US President Barack Obama’s nomination of Jim Yong Kim for the presidency of the World Bank has been well received if he intended to keep the World Bank at bay as the welfare system for the poor and desperate. But, the emerging market nations are supporting more of the World Bank, they are eager to gain controls of the financial reforms through the World Bank and the Development Banks; if only the developed nations can stop continuing aiding the poor with lesser tools to revive. Then, the future financial reforms must depend on the EU nations’ vote to overturn the coming depression with an open mind that Okonjo-Iweala brings an insider’s knowledge of the institution of strategy and execution.

    BRICS demanded the recalculation of the current currency exchange rate, and ASEAN have already developing its own mutual agreement in its 13 currencies to a standardize exchange. Somehow, IMF should find it way to correct its system to compensate when imbalance occurs as fixed rate and floating rate meets. How does its system compensate when 1.75% and 7% interest rate is being exchanged? Otherwise, the wall of protectionism is not going away.

    I see more of significant equitable value changes in US and EU even in Germany after more inflation hit and lesser growth in a downward trend after June if the assumed haircut is not reversing the debt and GDP. What else can the developing nations do if their accomplishment is not apt to those are floating with a weight fixed to their central banks? It may not be contagion but sinking to the bottom in depression to a new start is not other countries have in their mind.

    Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian gave the best descriptions on Europe’s decision last week to bolster its internal financial firewalls, these steps are, the recent tranquility has been more borrowed than earned.

    May the Buddha bless you?

  2. CommentedKir Komrik

    Thank you for the great article.

    USG should do two things in tandem:
    1.) do whatever it can to retain as much control as it can over the World Bank (and thus continue to control the WB Presidency)
    2.) use its overwhelming global influence to promote global constitutionalism; specifically, General Federalism which you can read about at kirkomrik.wordpress.com

    - kk

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