Wednesday, August 27, 2014
3

希腊悲剧,第二幕

芝加哥——希腊悲剧通常由三幕组成。第一幕设下悲剧的场景。然而,只有到了第二幕,剧情才达到高潮。对于今天的希腊,私人债权人的“自愿”损失政策的实施恰恰代表着另一个开端的完结。真正的悲剧还将上演。

表面上看,对债权人的“自愿”政策,似乎一直是个很大的成功。希腊的外债额已减少了1000多亿欧元(约合1300亿美元)。希腊的欧洲伙伴为其提供了1300亿欧元的新贷款。因此,希腊逃过了大范围的银行倒闭这一浩劫,此外它已经能够继续为其公共部门的雇员发放薪水。

但是,尽管希腊大肆吹嘘这些成果,现实却更加严酷。即使在最新的协议下,希腊的债务比率仍保持在去年国内生产总值的120%。今年,国内生产总值预计下降7%,财政赤字还将持续,由此一来,在2020年稳定为120%之前,希腊的债务比率可能会超过130%。

然而,就是这种削弱的级别还是不可持续。未来30年,由于每年0.5%的人口递减率,即便希腊人均收入以德国1.5%的水平增长,债务仍将难以偿还。假设希腊借款的实际利率仅为3%(目前的利率为17%),未来30年内,政府将需要达成每年2.6%的GDP初级预算盈余(财政结余减去债务服务费用)才能勉强稳定债务负担。

正确看待这一任务:过去25年间,希腊每年平均遭受2%的基本赤字。为把债务与GDP的比率降为70%,今后30年,希腊必须保持平均初级盈为4%,一个在过去25年间只有四年暂时到达的水平。

如果情形如此惊人,为何欧盟和国际货币基金组织庆祝最近达成的协议呢?简单地说,这些机构的首要目的是最大限度地减少希腊违约对国际金融体系的影响。希腊,坦白的说,不是他们的首要工作。

鉴于金融市场的反应,他们已经成功了。拖延达成协议使得大多数私人债权人得以逃脱鲁莽地给希腊借款的后果。大约半数的希腊对外债务从私营部门迁移到了政府机构。

但欧盟和国际货币基金组织最想帮助的放款群体 — 银行,却仅仅部分降低了暴露。2010年5月至2011年9月间,法国的银行持有的希腊主权债务价值下降了46亿欧元(39%),而德国的银行持有的股份减少了29亿欧元(31%),意大利的银行减少了5.3亿欧元(30%)。在某种程度上,这一下降反映了现存债务市场价值的减少。因此,平均而言,银行售出很少、

但是,虽然私营部门的损失已降到最低,但这样做的代价是什么?要是希腊在2010年就违约,如同现在一样对私人债权人实行扣减,它可能已经把债务和GDP的比率降低到更易于管理的80%了。这样可能很残酷,但是它可以让希腊人免于遭受国内生产总值7%的下降以及上升至22%的失业率(包括高达48%的青年失业率的增加)。

更重要的是,如果在2010年违约,就可能留下些许调整的余地。照目前的计划,根本没有余地:如果经济不迅速扭转,希腊将需要更多的帮助。但它能去哪里找到寻求帮助呢?大多数政府债务现由政府部门持有,按照传统这些债务不允许任何扣减。其余部分已经在英国法律而不是希腊法律下重新发行,脱离了希腊政府和其新的集体行动条款的控制,加速了部分违约。

换句话说,希腊已穷尽了同私营部门分担部分负担的能力。下次,欧洲纳税人将陷入圈套,难以摆脱。

希腊悲剧的第二幕将把绝望的希腊人推向愤怒,心灰意冷的欧洲人。只有到了悲剧的高潮,我们才会知道,拖延必然会发生的情形所做的努力,是否会破坏当代人对于欧洲的概念。

Hide Comments Hide Comments Read Comments (3)

Please login or register to post a comment

  1. CommentedSarchis Dolmanian

    Untill reading this I still nurtured the hope that someday somebody will open 'their' eyes about what is needed to be done.
    Now I realize that the necessary information was available for some time.
    Where do we find some political acumen?
    How much time do we have to spend really deep inside the 'danger zone'?

  2. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134: Two model for Europe 12-29-2011

    I think what Mr. Hans-Werner Sinn meant was the outflow were the collateral damage attributed by the Rogue Trader who bidden on the 1.6 instead of 1.3 to a dollar; the hedge fund managers like FM and Goldman Sacks and the fall of Dexia bank and others. Furthermore, the outflow to the Dow Jones was not accidental either at the slow down on the American economy, the stock boomed for sake of the monopoly or ‘get me out of Eurobonds’ made it obvious is upon everyone else guesses, or its disposition is part of the deleverage that Euro is pegged to dollar to promote another delusion of growth scenario. The recent sale on the Italian and Spanish bond held at 7%; and inflation rate edged higher from 2% to 3.4% in America; so, I suspect the Europe is not any lower on the account of the deleverage, rather than the shortage of resources and the questionable status in the Strait of Hermuz. Besides, the next four months in rolling over of the $900 billion Euro bonds may not be sold again at 7%, even with the direct periphery of the loans from Fed, even at the 500 basis points to exchange or 0.25% loan available to the local banks.

    “MUNICH – Interest rates for public debt within the eurozone have spread once again, just as they did before the introduction of the euro. Balance-of-payment disparities are steadily increasing. The sovereign-debt crisis is eating its way from the periphery to the core, and the exodus of capital is accelerating.”

    So, the question is clear for the safety net could be for the $650 net foreign wealth, if the interest rate is being sacrificed to sustain the unity of the Eurobonds? Or, how much is American banker is willing to abstain to bankruptcy if the present 8-15% for the Euros will escalate in the coming three-year-term of the Eurobonds and the exchange rate must sustain at a profitable level after being deleverage?

    Far as the data indicated the unemployment and housing are merely improved the sentiment to the holiday seasons, or Fed is playing with the exchange rate again. And, the yuan went 4% over the year and inflation rate held at 6.5%, China must made its domestic growth program to ease the tension on the manufacturing slowdown. I am not sure how the debtor nations can use its austerity program to sustain the level of certainty for repayment on the next coming restructuring of the debts.

    Shuffling of the 2.7 trillion with lesser growth is hard to do, even if, the investors and banker would turn into rogue trader to hold the line on the exchange rate. However, the inflation rate would certainly change one’s mind quickly if the change of status quo to commodities goods or outbreak of war in Middle East is eminent.

    Perhaps, it is time to choose how the next round for the global finance and the sovereignty debts if Euro stands even it is contagious. There is no escape for most financials if Euro collapses; but EU must sustain a firewall like to create its EU zone policy as well to stop further spread of inequity and insecurity if the Bael II is not working with its banks, or breakup of the north and south under the pressure of the fiscal unity. Then we may consider the financials are separated by the disgusted investors as each develops their doors in shutting of trades by its partners by continents other than EU; if the exchange rate or interest rate becomes irrelevant. So, sovereignty debts must be traded under the scrutiny of sovereignties not bankers since they, the citizens of sovereignty, must repay them. And, capital financing should not be the part of the sovereignty debt that shared with the lower rate; it demands its proof of performance and consequence and not just politicians for promoting propagandas like ClubMed or Green industries, that they plays double jeopardy on WTO.

    Personally, I refer the multi-speed, multi-currencies approaches in various zones that each enjoy their own responsibility for building up their equities; and shared retirement with their assets they earned by leaving the exchange rate and interest rate to the achievement and performance of the states, and not to bankers even for Central banks. Finally, there is no right choice of the model as available, but each must accept the alternatives in changing the model we definitely needed to meet globalization of the finance.

    May the Buddha bless you?

  3. CommentedRik Rijs

    Very interesting. And alarming. Only strange to read how a professor makes a 30-year forecast about the population evolution in Greece. There he's on a par with African wizzards. To blame the banks for not selling their Greek paper is .... there simply was nobody in the market willing to buy that rubbish! The author forgets one possible solution to the Greek tragedy: the Greek orthodox church owns land and real estate worth some 700 billion euros and still remains a tax exempt entity. Its influence is incredible (the Greek constitution defines the country as orthodox rather than as a democracy). There's enough money. The problem is Greece's medieval taboo on taxing the church.

Featured