Monday, September 1, 2014
5

巴勒斯坦局势

拉马拉—要论仇恨如何引起旷日持久的暴力和战争,没有比眼下的巴勒斯坦更好的例子了。但全球政客仍然对这个问题虚与委蛇,而不愿直面它。最近在加沙发生的致命暴力事件只是生活在占领和包围之中的人民需要的不仅仅是停火、而是政治解决之曙光的又一明证:巴勒斯坦的独立从未像今天一样如此紧迫。

巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯决定寻求在本周让联合国大会就承认巴勒斯坦举行投票,尽管以色列及其西方盟国对此极尽威逼利诱之能事。以色列阵营认为,巴勒斯坦不应该走联合国的路子,而应该继续除了摆拍照片之外没有任何意义的不对称谈判。

联合国投票(投票日正好与国际声援巴勒斯坦人民日是同一天)并不会授予巴勒斯坦完全的成员地位,而是将巴勒斯坦的地位提升到与梵蒂冈相当的水平,允许其政治领袖向海牙国际刑事法庭提起以色列战争罪诉讼。

巴勒斯坦的犹太复国主义者在1947年的联合国大会投票后拒绝分为一个犹太国家和一个阿拉伯国家。讽刺的是,随着加沙发射的火箭落在了特拉维夫郊区,那些支持分治的以色列人并不认为满足分治计划的另一半人有多重要。

诚然,巴勒斯坦人对于分治计划划给他们46%的英属巴勒斯坦托管地感到十分不满,他们是巴勒斯坦人口的大头,也拥有绝大部分巴勒斯坦土地。如今,巴勒斯坦所寻求的国土面积只有托管地的22%,1947年联合国大会181号决议后,以色列单方面将决议所授予的土地扩大了很大一部分。

巴勒斯坦要求在1967年6月4日的边界内建国,这符合国际法。联合国安理会于当年11月作出决议,“通过战争获得领土”是不可接受的。后续安理会决议和国际条约都秉承这一原则。

事实上,基于1967年边界的巴勒斯坦国正是美国总统奥巴马所呼吁的。类似地,欧盟也长期支持两国解决方案,巴勒斯坦国将建立在1967年被以色列占领的区域内。

阿巴斯指出,即将到来的联合国大会投票并不是旨在让以色列非法化。它所遵循的是1988年巴勒斯坦国民议会宣言——在以色列国边上建立巴勒斯坦国。它也遵循2002年阿盟贝鲁特峰会通过的阿拉伯和平倡议(Arab Peace Initiative,但以色列至今尚未对此倡议表态)。

阿盟的倡议——并在伊斯兰会议组织(Organization of the Islamic Conference)批准——接受沿1967年边界建立两个国家的方案,但在此基础上更进一步,要求在棘手的巴勒斯坦难民问题上达成“公平”和“一致”的解决办法。巴勒斯坦、阿拉伯国家和其他以穆斯林为主体人口的国家允许以色列不承认巴勒斯坦难民不可剥夺的返回故土的权利。这应该可以减轻以色列关于回家权利可能导致作为犹太国家的以色列的末日的担忧。

前往纽约的阿巴斯可能还手握一张更重要的王牌。以色列最近在加沙的野蛮暴力行径将分治线良策的巴勒斯坦人民凝聚在了一起。阿巴斯的法塔赫系的领导人控制着约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构,而哈马斯控制着加沙,这两派已开始定期会面,讨论实施埃及-卡塔尔和解计划。双方均释放了政治犯,法塔赫还派出高级代表团访问了加沙。

包括巴勒斯坦国民议会中一个联盟领袖拉马西(Mahmoud Ramahi)在内的哈马斯官员公开支持联合国承认投票议案。哈马斯副领导人马祖科(Mousa Abu Marzook)说,哈马斯不反对阿巴斯的外交努力。

独立而自由的巴勒斯坦与安全无虑的以色列共存,这是全世界都同意的方案。巴勒斯坦已经显示出他们愿意接受基于一致的吃亏的土地交换,并对解决耶路撒冷问题的创造性方案持开放态度,比如按美国总统克林顿在其第二个任期末所提出的方案。

如今最需要的是给予和平进程真正提振的政治意愿。已无竞选压力的奥巴马应该和国际社会一起给予巴勒斯坦和平努力一线生机。巴勒斯坦局势从未像现在那样清晰。投票承认巴勒斯坦国地位就是投票支持和平。

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  1. CommentedSamuel Jew

    I appreciate that all communities are imagined communities and the Palestinians are no different. At the same time, the Arab world may as well be pining for the return of the Ottoman Empire.

    Furthermore, the existence of the state of Israel is apparently ordained by God as an eschatological imperative. People of all Abrahamic faiths should celebrate it as the fulfillment of prophecy. Appeals instead to the moral authority of the UN are both laughable and unseemly.

  2. CommentedIsmail OURAICH

    Here is comment on a previous article, and which points out to the main problem to be resolved if to reach a permanent solution. This comment was in reaction to a comment by Avraam Dectis, which I copy-paste as well.

    "Avraam Dectis 1 week ago

    This conflict could be ended with a genuine peace plan that would be barely acceptable to everyone. I propose one.
    The current situation has two groups in close proximity who will continue to fight for eternity until they are separated like the quarreling children they really are - much like the Greeks and Turks ceased fighting after the Treaty of Lausanne.
    The Israelis will never go. This only leaves the Gazans.

    You cannot force people to migrate, it would be barbaric. Thus you have to bribe them.

    What bribe would be acceptable?

    Israel could offer $25,000 to every Gazan that would agree to go to another Arab country. A family of six would get $150,000. That might be acceptable.

    Israel could even sweeten the pot by offering free houses in Egypt for whomever left.

    People with immovable assets would be given at least ( or more ) fair market value for them.

    The Gazans would not like this because they would be leaving and psychologically would feel defeated.

    The Israelis would not like this because the cost would be huge and would decades to pay off the cost.

    Ultimately, however, it is the only civilized solution and the only barrier is the expense. Money is easier to replace than people.

    The alternative is that, a century from now, you will read about Palestinians and Israelis killing each other.

    Money or peace, take your pick."

    @Avraam Dectis: How about bringing a little twist to your solution of bribing Palestinians to leave their forefathers land.

    Why not do the same for the Israelis, who in fact have been "bribed", if I could use the term, to settle in a land that did not belong to them, or at least that was settled by a certain populace before the latter was forced out through well-documented terror-tactics.

    When I say that modern day Israelis have been "bribed" to settle in Palestine, it is with regard to the fact that most Jews emigrated from Europe and Ex-USSR under the threat of growing antisemitism and anti-religion bias, which reached its climax in Nazi Germany. Antisemitism is still alive in Europe, much as it was under the Inquisition, though the policies have changed, but the spirit remains the same.

    How about Europe (including Ex-USSR) bribes its Jewish citizenry to go back to their forefathers' land in which they were born for generations. Most of Israelis came from those countries under the threat as I said of growing antisemitism and the promise of material well-being.

    Now, I would argue that indeed Jews and Christian minorities in Muslim majority countries were not treated as full-fledged citizens, yet they had their rights protected more than in Europe and that is a historical fact that one can check by indulging in factual reading of trusted historical sources. The problem is that as countries in the Middle-East and North Africa started to get their independence in the post-empire era, and going into the nation-state era, European politics of hegemony that aimed at maintaining the old-paradigm of Empire (albeit through more nuanced means) have created sectarian frictions and divides that are at the sources of the current situation.
    Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/egypt-s-efforts-to-broker-a-ceasefire-in-gaza-by-itamar-rabinovich#P4jmR5vpysZu9ylK.99

  3. CommentedCher Calusa

    I agree that bilateral agreements or statehood for Palestine will not put an end to strife in the Middle East. There are still too many loose ends in Palestine. During the recent bombings the world should have noticed that the West Bank, home of the PLO was very quiet. There are likely internal struggles that are due to general suspicion and disagreement between the PLO and Hamas as indicated by the need to reinvestigate Mr. Arafat's death. What would happen if the Palestinian people themselves actually did have the right of self determination and ceased to be pawns in the world's games? The people of this world have failed to come together in order to cooperate and grow. We are facing global catastrophe environmentally, fiscally and socially as a species. World leaders don't yet share a vision of how to build a better and sustainable future. This will take a major shift in thinking. Our geographic boundaries mean little or nothing, however, our interlocking connections on many levels will dictate how we succeed or fail.

  4. CommentedChris Milton

    It's worth noting that the UK's price of voting for Palestine's observer status is that they forgo the right to join either the International Criminal Court of the International Court of Justice.

  5. CommentedZsolt Hermann

    I would not want to argue with the main part of the article as it is interpreted very differently depending on which side the observer is standing on. I would like to cite only one sentence:
    "...An independent and free Palestine alongside a safe and secure Israel is a plan upon which the entire world agrees..."
    Well this statement is clearly not true. Since the formation of the Jewish state in 1948 neither the Palestinians nor any major Arabic country apart from Jordan and Egypt (as a result of military defeat) accepted Israel's' right to exist either in a "safe and secure" or in any other way.
    And not only they do not accept the "right to exist" their openly declared aim is to wipe the country off the map killing all of the inhabitants (and other Jews in other parts of the world).
    There were many instances starting from the initial 1948 partition, when the 2 state solution could have been accepted, offers were tabled from Israel extremely close to the present Palestinian demand.
    The problem is that the Palestinian people are used as live baits or proxies by much stronger and larger countries to exert pressure on Israel, which pressure Israel handles rightly or wrongly depending on who observers it and how measurements are made.
    The point is that the situation will be never solved by simple Palestinian statehood, or bilateral agreements.
    Any solution would need to involve the whole region, and even non-regional powers also "assisting" in the background.
    For that to happen everybody without exception would need to understand the principles and necessities of a global, interconnected world where everybody depends on everybody else, and we simply cannot "wipe off", or oppress, incarcerate nations, cultures either physically or ideologically without inflicting the greatest harm on ourselves.
    None of the seemingly unsolvable crisis and flash-point in the world today can be solved without this understanding.
    Humanity has become a single, interconnected organism whether we want to accept it or not, and if we want to build a sustainable future we have to adapt accordingly.

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