After the Storm
La burbuja y los promotores del oro
Nouriel Roubini
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NUEVA YORK – Los precios del oro han estado aumentando considerablemente, han superado la barrera de los 1,000 dólares y en las últimas semanas se han ido acercando a los 1,200 dólares por onza. Los promotores del oro sostienen que el precio podría rebasar los 2,000 dólares. Pero el incremento reciente se parece sospechosamente a una burbuja y sólo está justificado parcialmente por los fundamentos económicos.
Los precios del oro se disparan únicamente en dos situaciones: cuando la inflación es alta y creciente se recurre al oro como protección; y cuando hay el riesgo de una depresión y los inversionistas temen por la seguridad de sus depósitos bancarios, el oro se convierte en un refugio seguro.
Los últimos dos años se ajustan a este patrón. Los precios del oro comenzaron a aumentar bruscamente en la primera mitad de 2008, cuando los mercados emergentes se estaban sobrecalentando, los precios de los productos básicos crecían y existía la preocupación de la inflación en aumento en los mercados emergentes con alto crecimiento. Incluso ese aumento fue en parte una burbuja, que se colapsó en la segunda mitad de 2008 cuando la economía mundial cayó en una recesión después de que el petróleo llegara a los 145 dólares y acabara con el crecimiento global. A medida que las preocupaciones acerca de la deflación sustituyeron al temor por la inflación, los precios del oro comenzaron a caer con la corrección de los precios de los productos básicos.
El segundo repunte de los precios ocurrió cuando quebró Lehman Brothers, lo que provocó temor entre los inversionistas por la seguridad de sus activos financieros, incluidos los depósitos bancarios. Ese temor se controló cuando el G-7 se comprometió a aumentar las garantías de los depósitos bancarios y a respaldar el sistema financiero. Cuando el pánico disminuyó hacia finales de 2008, los precios del oro reanudaron su movimiento a la baja. Para ese entonces, cuando la economía se deslizaba hacia la depresión, el uso comercial e industrial del oro, e incluso la demanda para productos de lujo cayeron aún más.
El oro volvió a aumentar por encima de los 1,000 dólares en febrero-marzo de 2009, cuando parecía que la mayor parte del sistema financiero de Estados Unidos y Europa estaba cerca de la insolvencia y que muchos gobiernos no podrían garantizar los depósitos ni respaldar el sistema financiero porque los bancos que eran demasiado grandes para fracasar también eran demasiado grandes para rescatarlos.
El pánico disminuyó y los precios del oro una vez más comenzaron a caer después de que se aplicaron pruebas de resistencia a la crisis a los bancos de Estados Unidos, de que el Programa de ayuda para activos problemáticos reforzó más al sistema financiero al eliminar los activos tóxicos del balance de los bancos y de que la economía global tocó fondo gradualmente.
Entonces, sin un riesgo de inflación o depresión a corto plazo, ¿por qué se han disparado los precios del oro nuevamente en los últimos meses?
Hay varias razones que explican por qué están aumentando, pero indican un incremento gradual, con riesgo significativo de una corrección a la baja, y no un aumento rápido hacia los 2,000 dólares, como afirman los promotores del oro de hoy.
En primer lugar, si bien aún estamos en un mundo en deflación global, los grandes déficit fiscales monetizados están alimentando temores sobre la inflación a mediano plazo. En segundo lugar, una enorme ola de liquidez generada por una política monetaria flexible está impulsando a los activos, incluyendo los productos básicos, lo que a la larga podría fomentar la inflación. En tercer lugar, las operaciones de comercio con divisas en función de las diferencias de tipos de interés financiadas con dólares están presionando fuertemente a la baja a esa moneda, y hay una relación inversa entre el valor del dólar y el precio en dólares de los productos básicos: mientras más bajo se cotice el dólar, mayor será el precio en dólares del petróleo, la energía y otros productos básicos, incluido el oro.
En cuarto lugar, la oferta global de oro, tanto existente como de reciente producción, es limitada y la demanda está aumentando más rápido de lo que puede satisfacerse. Parte de esta demanda procede de bancos centrales, como los de India, China y Corea del Sur. Otra parte proviene de los inversionistas privados que están utilizando al oro como protección contra lo que siguen siendo riesgos de “cola” de baja probabilidad (inflación elevada y otra depresión provocada por una recesión doble). En efecto, cada vez más los inversionistas buscan protegerse contra esos riesgos desde el principio. Dada la oferta inelástica de oro, incluso un cambio pequeño hacia el metal en los portafolios de los bancos centrales y los inversionistas privados aumenta su precio significativamente.
Por último, el riesgo soberano está aumentando –consideremos los problemas a que se enfrentan los inversionistas en Dubai, Grecia y otros mercados emergentes y economías avanzadas. Esto ha reavivado las preocupaciones de que los gobiernos pudieran no ser capaces de respaldar a un sistema financiero demasiado grande para ser rescatado.
Pero, puesto que el oro no tiene valor intrínseco, hay riesgos significativos de una corrección a la baja. A la larga, los bancos tendrán que abandonar la facilitación cuantitativa y las tasas de interés cero, lo que presionará a la baja los activos riesgosos, incluyendo los productos básicos. O tal vez la recuperación global resulte frágil y anémica, lo que conduciría a una aumento de las expectativas a la baja de los productos básicos y a la alza del dólar.
Otro riesgo es que se desarticulen las operaciones de comercio con divisas en función de las diferencias de tipos de interés financiadas con dólares, con lo que explotaría la burbuja de activos que ha causado junto con la ola de liquidez monetaria. Y puesto que esas operaciones y la ola de liquidez están provocando una burbuja de activos a nivel global, parte del aumento reciente del oro también está impulsado por la burbuja, y el comportamiento de manada y el "impulso de arrastre" de los inversionistas presiona cada vez más al alza al oro. Pero todas las burbujas explotan a la larga. Mientras más grande es la burbuja, mayor es el colapso.
El aumento reciente de los precios del oro sólo está justificado en parte por los fundamentos económicos. Tampoco es claro por qué deberían los inversionistas acumular oro si la economía global vuelve a caer en recesión y las preocupaciones sobre la depresión y la inflación descontrolada se disparan. Si realmente se teme un colapso económico global, habrá que acumular armas, alimentos enlatados y otros productos que se puedan utilizar en una cabaña aislada.
Nouriel Roubini es profesor de economía en la Stern School of Business de la Universidad de Nueva York y Presidente de Roubini Global Economics (www.roubini.com).
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
www.project-syndicate.org
Traducción de Kena Nequiz
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Duffminster 09:10 15 Dec 09
Like most of the mainstream financial press, Roubini appears to me to be reading off a script. He entirely misses the other side of the gold coin. The other issues which are probably more important long term in my opinion are the following:
The first and most important issue is that the monetary precious metals are the only two commodities which, in my opinion, have routinely been price suppressed by central banks and on behalf of the top fiat currency systems. Unlike every other commodity silver and gold have never been allowed to come close to reaching their inflation adjusted highs which they reached shortly after Nixon defaulted (strike that) canceled the last vestige of the US gold standard. While gold is currently in the neighborhood of about half its inflation adjusted high, silver remains at below 1/6th of its inflation adjusted high.
Central banks have been a major contributor to the “Supply” side of the ledger over many years while Gold mining supply has leveled or is declining. In the meantime as central bank hordes have been depleted, central banks on net are no longer contributing to the supply side and have moved to the demand side. So not only are central banks, in aggregate, not supplying gold, they are demanding it, even as miners are facing increasing costs and logistical challenges in recovering gold.
The second point and one the mainstream financial press has studiously avoided for many years is the excellent analytical work of the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA). GATA has done work that I believe proves that the central banks, including the Federal Reserve have engaged in Gold SWAPS and that many if not most of the largest world central banks played that game along with the US for years as the primary mechanism to keep gold prices suppressed in order to help keep interest rates lower even as very large amounts fiat money and debt and fiduciary media were created. This is based on the work of Summers involving Gibson’s paradox as relates to gold and interest rates.
According to my understanding GATA's research, these central banks have accounting rules that allow them to keep swaps off the books and to continue to report the swapped and leased gold as if were still available physical gold. If GATA’s analysis is correct, the central banks may have only about half or less of the gold they report. In my opinion, there work is rock solid.
I am looking forward to the day this publication and other mainstream news sources begins interviewing GATA founders like Bill Murphy to finally look at this issue. At a time when the US may pass an “Audit the Fed” bill, I think its about time to hear more on this subject.
As far as today's market action in currencies and Gold and Silver:
Today's Dollar movement is clearly interventional (likely some combination of the US Japan and China and Europe) because the dollar is up and gold and silver are fully under record massive short positions by a small handful of the largest US and UK member banks of their respective central banks and on a day when we are seeing a Surge in Wholesale Inflation. That is a dead giveaway to me.
Additionally, there are many signals in the field showing that sovereign debt is increasingly risky and that debt levels among the largest currency manufacturers is rising as the debts among those in the basket of currencies are all not repayable at current currency valuations (relative to real products and real money gold and silver).
Short term, these central banks can cause these fluctuations but looking outside these fluctuations, the whole basket seems to be less and less safe and as more and more of the wealth begins to realize how the wool is being pulled over their eyes it seems to me very likely that wealth will want to get parked in the safest haven of all and take possession of physical gold and silver while it can still be had.
I have much more to say. If you want to learn more search for silver and gold and
Duffminster
http://www.duffminster.com/SilverandGold
speed7791 06:10 16 Dec 09
You said..."But, since gold has no intrinsic value, there are significant risks of a downward correction. Eventually, central banks will need to exit quantitative easing and zero-interest rates, putting downward pressure on risky assets, including commodities. Or the global recovery may turn out to be fragile and anemic, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment on commodities – and in bullishness about the US dollar. "
If that is the general thinking of those in the western world I fear that you've not only sealed your fate, but you've sealed your hope as well.
All I can say is... Please sell us all your gold & silver. We'll take them all!!! We in turn will hand you something thats on its way to its intrinsic value.
Warm rgds from Malaysia...
LorenzoInterest 02:48 16 Dec 09
Sir,
let's say you're right and gold price is a bubble like other assets around the world because of the reasons you've explained in your article. Wouldn't a burst of these bubbles create the same sort of problems we've faced with the present economical great recession? Wouldn't a burst create pressures on banks balance sheets, governments budgets (because of another recession and likely banking support) and so add a lot of more pressures on monetary and fiscal authorities? Wouldn't that mean that there could be a good reason to hedge all this huge risk with something like gold?
You write gold has no intrinsic value. But we could say that everything has no intrinsic value or that everything has value according to what we need and why we need it. Considering the fact that the gold mined during the Roman Empire is still around us, and considering the huge risk we're facing because of a possible bubble burst or a possible huge inflation escalation, can we say that gold has a value because people want to reduce the risk they're facing? Is there anything better than something which comes out of the beginning of civilization in perfect shape? I don't think so.
You write that in a global economic meltdown it would be better to have guns, canned food and other commodities. That's right. But that doesn't mean you won't need gold at all. Let's assume the world economy is going to implode and all fiat money simply don't exist anymore. Let's assume we all go back to a barter kind of economy. Well that's exactly the time you'll need gold: it would have saved part of your wealth and it would help you to restore a monetary economy out of the shadows of barter. But why? Well because can we say that there is something better than a commodity in perfect shape since the time of Roman Empire, and even before of course, to restore trust in indirect exchanges and build up new capital for further development? No. There isn't.
Raphael 06:55 17 Dec 09
Roubini is wrong on several accounts. First, gold is not a commodity, but a currency. Production and consumption of gold is irrelevant (unlike for commodities), what matters is investor demand. Second, gold doesn't rise when inflation is high (it rose by several hundreds of percents between 1999 and 2007 when inflation was low, and it fell during the 1980's when inflation was high, although subsiding). Gold rises because of currency debasement; when the Fed is behind the curve; when real interest rates are negative or low, which is the case now and will likely remain so for "an extended period".
Lastly, Roubini forgets that a bubble is characterized by extreme overvaluation and frantic rates of increase, which is not the case with gold today:
http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/12/gold-is-this-bubble-yet.html
alykhansatchu 07:37 20 Dec 09
Dear Mr. Roubini,
In an environment of Rampant Money Printing a la Weimar Republic and Gideon Gono's Zimbabwe [and note that Zimbabwe has now jettisoned its currency], is not Gold a Better potential store of Currency than Fiat Currencies? Moreover, if you care to look at the Inflation adjusted Price, You will note that we are someway off the highs [last seen when the Shah of Shahs was being toppled by the Ayatollah]. Furthmore, that Gold holdings as a % of Reserves are at historic lows and hence buy side pressure is partly just a consequence of a reversion to a Mean.
Sure There is a degree of Leveraged Momentum related FAT TAIL Risk [particularly of the $ strengthens on a Countertrend basis] but in this World where everyone is a Helicopter [Ben Bernanke Theory] the idea of Holding Gold is a persuasive One.
However, More Compelling than Gold are the Soft and particularly the Breakfast Commodities which are signalling loud and clear that we have toasted this Planet a little too much and whilst we hold fancy Conferences we might well have tripped over the Tipping Point.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
twitter alykhansatchu
wroth5 03:46 27 Dec 09
Gold is a hedge against, not changes in currency values or inflation, but rather the collapse of unsustainable fiat currencies (for example the soon coming nightmare in the US regarding unfunded Medicare and Social Security liabilities, the nationalization of the still deteriorating mortgage system, and unlimited support to an insolvent banking system).
Jayesh 01:19 30 Dec 09
Fiat paper currency's role as a storage of value is in question. (after all it's history is not older than 30 years)
Last five year investment in gold has given more return than any such currency. Why you would you put your money in something in question?
The struggle of 'Big Money" is preservation of the 'value' and not return. Gold will continue doing that in next decade as well. No one knows if it requires to carry that burden in future.
AiriusTorpora 05:26 15 Dec 09
The author fails to recognize or examine the point that it may be possible that the current gold price action is actually a hedge by foreign banks against the current rising currency bubble. A contra-position against an existing bubble, is not, itself a bubble.