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Le mythe de la croissance autoritaire

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2010-08-09

CAMBRIDGE – Il y a peu, quelques centaines d’activistes pro-démocratie se sont réunis sur une place de Moscou un samedi matin pour protester contre les restrictions du gouvernement sur la liberté de rassemblement. Ils brandissaient des pancartes sur lesquelles était inscrit « 31 », en référence à l’Article 31 de la Constitution russe qui garantit la liberté de rassemblement. Ils furent rapidement encerclés par la police qui tentât d’interrompre la manifestation. Un critique réputé du Kremlin et quelques autres furent alors précipitamment trainés dans un véhicule de police et emmenés.

Des évènements comme celui-ci sont presque quotidiens en Russie où le Premier ministre Vladimir Poutine dirige le pays d’une main ferme, et où la persécution d’opposants au gouvernement, les violations des droits de l’homme et les abus judiciaires sont devenus la routine. A une époque où la démocratie et les droits de l’homme sont devenus la norme mondiale, de telles transgressions ne contribuent en rien à améliorer l’image de la Russie. Les dirigeants autoritaires comme Poutine le comprennent bien, mais ils considèrent que cela représente un prix acceptable à payer pour exercer un pouvoir débridé sur leur pays.

Ce que des dirigeants comme Poutine comprennent moins est que leurs politiques compromettent aussi l’avenir économique de leur pays et leur statut économique global.

La relation entre la politique d’une nation et ses perspectives économiques est un des sujets les plus fondamentaux – et des plus étudiés – des sciences sociales dans leur ensemble. Quelle est la meilleure situation pour la croissance économique : une main directive forte, libérée des pression de la concurrence politique ou une pluralité d’intérêts concurrents qui nourrit l’ouverture à de nouvelles idées et à de nouveaux acteurs politiques ?

Des exemples est-asiatiques (Corée du sud, Taiwan, Chine) semblent appuyer la première proposition. Mais comment alors peut-on expliquer le fait que presque tous les pays riches – à l’exception de ceux qui doivent leur richesse à leurs seules ressources naturelles – sont des démocraties ? L’ouverture politique devrait-elle précéder, plutôt que découler de la croissance économique ?

A l’étude systématique des évidences historiques, plutôt que des cas individuels, il semble bien que l’autoritarisme ait peu de lien avec la croissance économique. Pour chaque régime autoritaire parvenu à une croissance rapide, il s’en trouve plusieurs qui ont stagné. Pour chaque Lee Kuan Yew de Singapour, il y a de nombreux Mobutu Sese Seko du Congo.

Les démocraties réussissent non seulement mieux que les dictatures en termes de croissance économique à long terme, mais aussi dans de nombreux autres domaines majeurs. Elles assurent une plus grande stabilité économique, qui se mesure aux fluctuations à la hausse ou à la baisse des cycles économiques. Elles parviennent mieux à s’ajuster aux chocs économiques externes (tel que le déclin des termes d’échange ou l’arrêt soudain des afflux de capitaux). Elles génèrent plus d’investissement en capital humain – santé et éducation. Et elles produisent des sociétés plus équitables.

Les régimes autoritaires, à l’inverse, finissent par produire des économies aussi fragiles que leur système politique. Leur potentialité économique, lorsqu’elle existe, repose sur la puissance de dirigeants individuels, ou sur des circonstances favorables mais temporaires. Ils ne peuvent aspirer à une innovation économique soutenue ou à une suprématie économique mondiale.

A première vue, la Chine apparaît comme une exception. Depuis la fin des années 70, à la fin des expérimentations désastreuses de Mao, la Chine avait extrêmement bien réussi, avec des taux de croissance économique inégalés. Même si elle a démocratisé certains des processus décisionnaires locaux, le Parti Communiste Chinois contrôle fermement la politique nationale et le paysage de la situation des droits de l’homme est embrumé par de fréquents abus.

Mais la Chine demeure aussi un pays comparativement pauvre. Sa progression économique future dépendra en grande partie de sa capacité à gérer l’ouverture de son système politique à la concurrence, de la même manière qu’elle a ouvert son économie. Sans cette mutation, le manque de mécanismes institutionnalisés pour exprimer et organiser la dissidence produira à terme des conflits qui dépasseront la capacité du régime à les réprimer. Tant la stabilité politique que la croissance économique devraient en souffrir.

Mais la Russie et la Chine sont, malgré tout, deux importantes et puissantes économies. Leur exemple peut inciter d’autres dirigeants ailleurs dans le monde à croire qu’ils peuvent espérer une expansion économique tout en resserrant l’étau sur l’opposition politique intérieure.  

Prenons l’exemple de la Turquie : une puissance économique naissante au Moyen-Orient  qui semblait destinée jusqu’à récemment à devenir la seule démocratie musulmane de la région. Au cours de son premier mandat, le Premier ministre Recep Tayyip Erdogan avait réduit certaines des restrictions imposées aux minorités kurdes et fait voter des réformes permettant au système judiciaire turc de s’aligner sur les normes européennes

Mais plus récemment, Erdogan et ses alliés ont lancé une campagne à peine déguisée pour intimider leurs opposants et renforcer le contrôle du gouvernement sur les médias et les institutions publiques. Ils ont incarcéré des centaines d’officiers militaires, d’universitaires et de journalistes sous de fausses accusations, soit pour avoir semer la terreur ou fomenter un coup d’état. Les mises sur écoute et le harcèlement des opposants à Erdogan se sont tellement généralisés que certains estiment que le pays est devenu une « république de la terreur ».

Ce tournant vers l’autoritarisme est un mauvais signe pour l’économie turque, malgré la force de ses fondamentaux. Il aura des effets corrosifs sur la qualité des choix politiques du pays ainsi que sur ses prétentions de parvenir à un statut économique mondial.

Pour trouver de réelles super puissances économiques montantes, nous devrions nous tourner vers le Brésil, l’Inde ou l’Afrique du sud, qui ont déjà accompli leur transition démocratique et pour lesquels une régression parait improbable. Chacun de ces pays connaît des problèmes, bien sur. Le Brésil doit encore recouvrer son complet dynamisme économique et trouver la voie vers une croissance rapide. La démocratie de l’Inde peut être exaspérante dans sa manière de résister au changement économique. Et l’Afrique du sud souffre d’un niveau de chômage incroyablement élevé.  

Ces défis ne sont pourtant rien en comparaison de la tâche gigantesque de mutation institutionnelle qui attend les régimes autoritaires. Il ne faudra pas s’étonner de voir le Brésil laisser la Turquie mordre la poussière, l’Afrique du sud surpasser le Russie et l’Inde démontrer de meilleures performances que celles de la Chine.

Dani Rodrik, professeur en économie politique à la John F. Kennedy School of Government de l’université Harvard, est le premier récipiendaire du Prix Albert O. Hirschman du Conseil de Recherche en Sciences Sociales. Son dernier ouvrage : One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth (Une économie, plusieurs recettes : globalisation, institutions et croissance économique, ndt).

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Ivan 10:09 10 Aug 10

Perhaps your article should have been titled:  The Myth Of Growth In Dictatorships vs Plutocracies.

It is convenient and idealistic to think of the U.S. as a democracy, but nothing could be further from the truth.  The U.S. may be many things, but in terms of government, it is NOT a democracy.  A plutocracy?  An aristocracy?  A meritocracy?  A tyranny in-the-making?

Many are quick to point out that freedoms such as the right to vote and the right to practice a particular religion is proof of a democratic government.  Perhaps they refer to the 'freedom' to vote within the systematically limited and protected system of the Electoral College?  Or the 'freedom' to practice a religion so long as it does not offend someone in the Executive Branch or other arms of the government?  Or perhaps they refer to the right to mount a public protest, so long as the Patriot Act doesn't deem it a threat to public safety?  Perhaps those who prefer to refer to the U.S. as a democracy have such short memories that they have forgotten that the bailouts for the insurance industry, banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the auto industry was done WITHOUT a vote from the citizenry, most of whom opposed such measures, burdening future generations for an undeterminable period of time.  (The argument that issues which could not be understood by the general public is a poor excuse at best, a blunt example of how the U.S. is not a democracy at its best [as were the passage of the Patriot Act, and other previous examples].)

'Democracy' in the U.S. is an illusion sustained to appease the unaware masses, and thus control them better via the illusion of choice.  Whether one wishes to believe the U.S. is a democracy--as one would believe in any particular religion--is relative to whether they prefer an illusion for the sake of personal comfort or 'maintaining the peace', as opposed to reality.  Sadly, propagating the illusion that the U.S. is a democracy severely cripples or obliterates the possibility of true change to come forth from future generations.  More disturbing is that many people prefer it that way--a system, no matter how flawed, often defends itself to the end.


AustinScaggs 03:26 10 Aug 10

Ivan: And you think China or Russia are better illustrations of democracy?


hat0891 05:20 10 Aug 10

The core argument of the author about the superiority of democracies vs. the authoritarian regimes is hardly contestable. But the author apparently has poor knowledge of Turkey, which I happen to observe regularly. This country is undergoing a dramatic transformation, which may or may not lead it to becoming a stronger democracy and economy. Its success largely depends on the success of the reforms initiated by the government, - most notably, the ongoing attempts to adopt a new "civilian" constitution and the "Kurdish opening", - as well as the pace of the EU accession process.


Leo 10:19 11 Aug 10

My reading of the author is he is contrasting regimes that are personalised vis-a-vis regimes that function based on a system(however controversial). He predicts that the former is not sustainable in the long run. Democracy doesn't necessarily mean that people will think! but who said illusions ain't fascinating?


Ivan 03:47 11 Aug 10

@AustinScaggs:  China and Russia are not democracies.  Irregardless of how China prefers to present itself to the world, it is a communist government reliant on a socialist experiment for economic growth.  (It is obvious they realized some time ago that communism does not work for long-term sustainability.)  Russia is not a democracy, but a socialist government.  Much to the chagrin of the U.S., Putin managed to put Russia in a respectable economic footing.  Russia still has many problems, some ingrained not necessarily in econmic strategy but more a problem of culture and perspective, but what Russia managed to do under Putin's reign was nothing short of remarkable.

In summary, I believe not one form of government is perfect--the are all prone to error, particularly with 'leaders' with misguided ideals and/or perceptions of the world.  So long as world governments are managed by the flawed personal reactions of its leaders--mixing religion and government is a prime example of what NOT to do--governments will falter and fail time and again.  Unfortunately, this is a pattern that may be in place until human civilization ceases to exist (past record being an undeniable indicator).

It would be shortsighted to not offer a solution in my dialogue.  (But, then again, who is actually listening?)

Initially, maintaining TRUE separation of governance and religion would be a necessity--many people cannot perceive how much religion affects government and policy, be it directly or indirectly.  (The argument that without religion and how it manifests itself in a positive manner in times of decisions by the justices of the Supreme Court is a reckless at best.)  That would require that the government body operate using logic and not emotion, facts as opposed to scare tactics, and scientific calculations of probability and observation of patterns as opposed to personal delusions.

I don't propose a utopia.  Nevertheless, from observation, my proposal requires a level of discipline humans may never achieve, irregardless of the passage of time.


Ivan 03:55 11 Aug 10

CORRECTION:  '(The argument that without religion and how it manifests itself in a positive manner in times of decisions by the justices of the Supreme Court is a reckless at best.)', should have read:

(The argument that religion and how it manifests itself in a positive manner during times of decision, without which there is little chance for measurable progress in a society--for example, by justices of the Supreme Court in the U.S.--is a reckless assumption at best.)


MK 09:28 15 Aug 10

hat0891: the author is Turkish... and I have to say I share his views on how Tukey becomes less of a democracy.


hritcu 01:40 17 Aug 10

I find the article very weakly motivated. The concrete arguments given in the agrument would have basically supported any conclusion, like the absence of a strong  correlation between political system and economical performance, or even the opposite of what the author claims. Also the article doesn't talk at all about the huge influence the financial sector has on U.S. politics, culminating with the recent unprecedentent interventions of the U.S. government in the financial markets, which many see as a total failure of both US-style democracy and US-style capitalism. Does Rodrik's book give stronger arguments to support his claims?


Richard44 04:18 18 Aug 10

The issue of what qualifies as a democracy seems like a long discussion for another day, but probably we can say that the US is more democratic than certain other places.

Second, there is an issue that I find myself considering when dealing with people who post comments, and it is the issue of perfection: In theis case the question/issue is, even if the US is not perfect, is it still good enough?  Norway may be more democratic, but must the expression of democracy be perfect in order to qualify?  How perfect does the US have to be? Does perfection exist in any event?

Really, what struck me in reading the analysis was that perhaps one could turn it around and propose that for certain size countries (so as to exclude Singapore, for example) the measure of government "democracy" is how well they are doing economically, and how well they deal with disasters, and stress, etc.  I mean, who really cares about some abstract term of Democracy?  Isn't it performance (benefit to the citizens in general from the economic production) that counts?  I suppose we would want to exclude or somehow deal with places like Kuwait which are simply sucking assets out of the ground.  So before trading liberty for wealth, it might be worth considering if the trade is ever successful.


DaiViet 12:04 21 Aug 10

In my view, political systems are a necessary condition for economic prosperity, but they are not sufficient. I would suggest that any setup that actively encourage the free exchange of ideas among its citizens will become a hotbed of economic activity and growth.


cheeheongquah 07:15 22 Aug 10

But what about Germany which has been quite authoritarian in the economy in relation to US?

And, US has been increasingly authoritative as well!

 

Chee-Heong Quah


yakman 12:27 07 Sep 10

In this subject Mr. rodrik is not objective anymore. His father in law a retired general is allaged to military coup in turkey.

now his is trying to convince us democratically selected goverment is more dictator than a military coup leader and   It is turkey where military coup has been done 5 times since the 1960. And they hanged one elected primeminister and two minister and the other peoples.

Mr. you can not be objective in this case.


partha 04:33 08 Sep 10

That’s right, democracy and economic growth are complementary each other. In fact the authoritarian growth just warrants the unbridled speed with an inherent brewing up entropy of underlying discontent and deprivation with a divided and discriminating distribution of wealth (mostly crony capitalism just feeding the upper layers of the society the best and hardly trickles to the bottom of the society for ill reformed institutions). So in any case India in its most vibrant democracy (with all woes and worries) certainly triumphs over China in the long run where the speed of growth is neither sustainable nor equitable.

In fact innovation , creativity the life blood of any economy for long term race can easily relate to democracy where the pressure valve of discontent  always help in routinely  cleansing the bugs from the socio political system. But totalitarian govt is less compatible to this cleansing process or debugging process.And when they crack down on the society , its basically just creates a big fire wall to restrict its liberty as well as smooth functioning of the people both.


jayakarthik 11:20 12 Sep 10

democracy has it own perils slow decision making a byproduct of seeking consensus among the stake holder ie people but it is far superior way of governance than any form of authoritarianism.singapore is an exception but i dont think any other country has come close to that one may be the size was not similar.china is an economic powerhouse no doubt but it is so opaque that we dont know what is happening there.whether people are prospering or not whether they have a stake in the economic growth.we dont know whether growth takes into account the environmental concerns,freedom of expression etc.to quote a recent example in indian state of orissa which is rich in bauxite main ingredient to make aluminium vedanta resources which is listed in london stock exchange was denied permission to mine becoz of environmental concerns and tribal resistance  so these are the virtues of democracy where people have say in their future.i doubt whether these are taken into account when china or any country which has no democracy embarks on a path of economic growth.what world needs is inclusive growth not a growth where very few people prosper and majority are left out this can happen only in a vibrant democracy.i still vividly remember lee kuan yew criticising indian democracy for its slow decision making process yep india makes slow decision but if it makes decision it results in empowering its people economically.let us hope that democracy takes deep roots world wide.


veli86 10:23 10 Oct 10

In my opinion, the answer of the question "Which is better for economic growth – a strong guiding hand or plurality?" depends on the developmental stage of the country. If the country is far from the advanced contries in terms of productive capacity, the target is obvious "adoption of the existing best technologies". Adoption doesn't need new ideas. It requires determinism, focus and discipline. And these needs can be easily met in an authoritian regime. In fact, a poor functioning democratic regime may undermine the effectiveness of technology adoption through rent-seeking etc. However, as the countries converge to the advanced countries, then the gains from tech. adoption would diminish. In this point, creative thinking and new ideas are needed. An authoritian regime is not able to provide appropriate environment for free thinking and new ideas that would hinder further improvement in economic prosperity. 



AUTHOR INFO

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University, is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy.