Monday, July 28, 2014
Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space
4

重新唤醒富国扶贫热情

华盛顿——全球最贫困国家正在遭受五年内第三次并非由它们所引起的危机的侵袭——因最发达国家所带来的金融风暴导致的衰退。低收入国家刚刚经历了2007—2008年的食品和燃料冲击,随后又遭遇了金融危机,而在2012年,它们可能会面临更大的风险。此外,在当今的全球化世界中,各国之间相互依赖,穷国受困将不可避免地给所有国家带来不良后果,不管是穷是富。

2009年全球危机处于顶峰时,许多低收入国家经历了因出口下降、侨民寄回外汇减少以及外国投资出逃所造成的增长减速。这造成了严重的社会后果:世界银行估计,到2010年底,世界极端贫困人口数量增加了6400万。

但情况原本可能更加糟糕。得益于过去十年政策表现的改善,低收入国家在面临此次危机时所处的状况要比前几次好得多。它们的财政和经常项目赤字更小了,通胀更低了,国际储备更高了,且债务负担也更低了(部分要归功于债务减免)。

因此,尽管岁入下降,但大部分国家仍能够维持甚至增加支出水平,并有能力让财政赤字增加。这刺激了经济增长,同时也提振了纾缓最贫困人口困境所必须的关键性投资和社会项目。衰退期限也相对缩短了,部分是因为低收入过家在过去十年中更加开放地加入了世界贸易。

但这些国家依然十分脆弱。许多国家没有充足的时间重建有效的政策缓冲垫。它们财政金库已快告罄,经常项目赤字有所扩大,储备有所减少,一些国家还出现了债务水平剧增。此外,由于发达国家面临着预算压力,在未来数年中,对外援助力度将大大减小。在这样的环境下,没人能够保证低收入国家可以继续获得优惠融资。

因此,新的全球减速将极大地冲击低收入国家。IMF的模拟测试结果表明,全球增长率下降1.5个百分点将通过其对贸易和金融流的影响,光是在2012年就将造成270亿美元的外部融资缺口。这将使2300万人(其中大部分居住在非洲撒哈拉以南和亚洲地区)陷入贫困。

这些国家如何自救?财政刺激余地比2009年更小了,但仍有充分空间并可以获得融资的国家应该维持支持水平,并坚持投资关键的社会和基础设施项目。通胀较为温和的国家应该坚定地实施货币和汇率政策。

2012及其后数年的一项当务之急是建立冲击抵御机制。低收入国家应该巩固它们的岁入基础,以减少对外部融资的依赖,同时改善支出的效率。特别是,改善社会保障网的规模和受众将使最贫困人口的状况得到极大保护,即使是在全球减速恶化的情况下。亚美尼亚、布基纳法索、塞拉利昂、加纳、肯尼亚等国家已经成功地开始朝这个方向起步了,实施了基于调查的食品券计划、母亲和家庭福利计划、基于学校的社会服务计划以及有条件的现金转移计划(以孤儿等最脆弱群体为目标受众)等计划。

从长期看,低收入国家将从经济多元化和避免过度依赖少数产品和贸易伙伴中获益。更多元化的经济也更有可能带来普惠增长,即能够给更多人带来跟多工作机会、好处被更多人分享的增长。为了提振长期增长前景和生产率,低收入国家还需要满足巨大的基础设施需求,特别是发电和运输领域。

我们能够怎样施以援手?IMF已准备好给予政策建议、金融支持和技术援助。我们已经将到2014年的优惠贷款量增加到了170亿美元,且将可以获得此类贷款的国家数量增加了一倍。我们还把到2012年的优惠贷款利率削减到零。我们的贷款工具比以前更加灵活了,以便金融支持能够更快地抵达成员国,为它们创造空间进行急需支出支持增长、保护最脆弱人群。

但国际社会帮助低收入国家的办法是发达国家解决好自身问题,重塑强劲持续的全球增长。这将有助于低收入国家进一步整合财政、在上一个十年所取得的显著成就的基础上更上一层楼。

Exit from comment view mode. Click to hide this space
Hide Comments Hide Comments Read Comments (4)

Please login or register to post a comment

  1. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134@ The Anatomy of Global Economic Uncertainty
    In the search of the optimal paradigm for the four dynamics as in economic and financial or social and political, after the lender and debtor placed in growth and development we can see the clear distinctions on globalization, profitability, and balance of payments are pretty extreme; especially when the basis of the exchange in its value of currencies or durable goods like the real estate, or resources like oil changes. They do created the uncertainty on how we saw in the historical values integrated with change on the status from the globalization, profitability, and balances of payment. Perhaps, when we observe the deleveraging on the value of the economical advances or the currencies after the liquidity turned to solvency problems; and the exchange rate on the currencies made sit worsen on the restoring the historical values-----uncertainty on the value of the currencies made the foundation of the present exchange system collapsible even after the Libor rate principle is no longer relevant from the changes in globalization, profitability and the balance of payments.
    At first, we would question the title of the “Consumer of the World’, America and the merging of the European Union after the 92’. It sounds as the game of monopoly in the stock and commodity markets. It was the price market that most emerging market nations attempt to catch up with the economical growth by offering its labors and cheaper currencies; and the economical giants like US and EU were taking advantages of the profitability; but they gave up the industries that utilized its human resources by prompt on the raising salaries on the high end industries they sustained, and the government themselves shared their profits with government workers like teacher, policeman and fireman, and the growth push the cost of living standard forward the most labors were benefited from the surge. When their high end jobs missed their competitions from the emerging market nations, the balance of payment was default with deficits. Since the Western world is short on the political will to adjust and deprive the inflation, the liquidity traps were set in the quantitative easing with more bonds to sell.
    Perhaps, the key point was the excessiveness of the funds created after the issuance of the bonds with less of equity backings. Then, they accompanied with the financial establishment like banks boomed with the inflated pricing, hoping the emerging market nations accept its inflation by raising its currencies rates to exchange instead of harvesting the surpluses. Consequently, these issues were not purchased by investments of its people nor corresponded by the revenues of its government. Thus, it created the sovereignty debt that the foreigners must pay as the bearer of the issuance of these bonds. It went on to build up the price on stock or commodity; but the interest rate was mutated by its anemic growth in the developed nations; and inflation hit the emerging market nations with hike on the labor cost. Then, in due process, sovereignties are separated in the globalization after the fact on the political ends; while the debtor nations shirked with its debt, and the emerging market nations restricted the floating rate from inflation. It is why globalization was not a part of free trade in the sake of sovereignty under its protectionism.
    However, the bond issuers had applied the liquidity instead of solvency to the deficits or create growth, in reverse, they also developed the bubble in the stock and commodity market and the exchanges rates with their suppression of the interest rate to growth variation that the funds were created had no basis for growth, and its currencies were devalued. Then profitability was questionable on the displacement of time and value as it were; when the interest rate was under the spell of monopoly, that neither dollar nor Euro was the only alternative in storage of value in free will either. Soon as the deficit surface, the secondary storage, like real estate or commodity does not reflect the value of the future. The market collapsed on the demand of the appropriate compensation with hike of interest rate. With lesser success to improve the exchange in the bonds, the credits dragged on to the financial, that most medium business structure suffered most of the credit crunch. Then, profitability is limited on the established business and the medium business lost its profitability from the cash it must store or raise more to survive rather to gain. Since the anemic growth will continue globally and inflation hit harder to the labor cost for those exposed to the profitable nations and developed establishments. ..then, the credit crunch set in for the ordinary working class too in amending the balance of payment, from his credit card to home mortgage. Eventually, his job is hanging by a thread due to the eroding job market and the other is fighting inflation with low rising income or wages.
    Perhaps, we are identifying a limited set of explanatory variables in what statisticians call “a reduced-form equation”, from the changes in the value line that flip flap in the merging globalization how each is sensitive to inflation and deflation; or, how profitable is each investment we are involved whether it is stocks, commodities or bonds may not be depended on the outcome but how it would evolved relatively to others like the exchange of the currencies; or it is more depandable on the reveiws on the balance of payments from the soveriegnties, and from average working class as well, since the present political environment is much vulnarable to change whether it was keynesian or socialististic. It is hard to tell how we value on the currencies or the government is soaked in the welfare state, and is coming to drown itself. Finally, I am looking forward in the next years in the settlement of the Euro and its sovereignty debts; and how the Western world looking at the globalization by fending off China or reminbi which had already set from the watermark of the global economy, and it is not going away. However, I would expect another new world order that is much stabler than the Euro-dollar rule, in the multi-speed, and multi-currencies Zones mode, which will extended its protection on its sovereignty power and currencies in running its domestic financial and global financial; so, monopoly or hegmony is no longer relevant in our civilized community and financial world.
    May the Buddha bless you?

  2. CommentedAlexander Antonov

    Reality of crisis-proof economy

    Economics as an exact science has not yet been developed. This is confirmed by the fact that the major economic phenomenon – economic crises – has no comprehensive explanation. This is accounted for by the lack of an appropriate mathematical description of economics, which is natural, because none of the mathematical tools used in economics allow giving such a mathematical description.
    Firstly, all of them are aimed at the investigation of mass phenomena, because the economic behavior of an individual is unpredictable. For instance, Sir Isaac Newton wrote on the issue that simulating human behavior is a more complicated task than predicting planetary motion. However, try to imagine the development of radio-electronics, if it refused to study the processes in radio-electronic components comprising all complicated radio-electronic systems due to the unpredictable behavior of single electrons.
    Secondly, the methods for analysis of economic situations widely used at present – graphical, statistical, econophysical – allow defining only states, and not processes.
    Processes are defined by differential equations, which have found quite restricted application in economics.
    This is why, using the term introduced by William Ross Ashby, economics can be referred to as ‘the black box’ and studied using the methods borrowed from the exact sciences. In particular, the term ‘the white box’ introduced by Norbert Wiener can be used; it corresponds to the object under investigation where processes identical in terms of their mathematical description to those in ‘the black box’ are observed. Moreover, mathematical description of the processes in ‘the white box’ is available. That is, basically, the analogy approach is used.
    Unfortunately, ‘the white box’ in the exact sciences has not yet been found for the current market economy. This is how complicated and unique economic phenomena are. Nevertheless, ‘the white box’ does exist for the economy reformed as suggested below.
    However, to begin with, let us find ‘the white box’ not for economics in general, but for the basic process, which is the ‘goods-money-goods’ process. The author demonstrates that this process is potentially oscillating and can be described with a second-degree differential equation with constant coefficients, similar to the mathematical description of the process in a radio-electronic oscillation circuit. That is, an electric oscillation circuit can be used as ‘the white box’ with regard to the ‘goods-money-goods’ process.
    However, such an oscillation process is unknown in the economy and has never before been implemented. The matter is that its implementation requires special conditions which cannot be created in a random way. Similarly, for instance, TVs and cars are not assembled at random, houses and bridges are not built in a random fashion, and food cannot get into a supermarket randomly, and so on. Any constructive activities always require certain knowledge, and economics is not an exception.
    In this respect, it is quite natural to ask whether economics needs these oscillation processes and the respective knowledge about them. Actually, it does, because only in this case money works all the time and most efficiently. Otherwise, there is always either shortage or surplus of money. As for oscillation processes, they are preferred and widely used not only in economics, but in nature and the exact sciences, as well. Here belong, for example, rotation of electrons around the nucleus and the revolution of planets about the Sun. Nothing can exist without the oscillation processes. Therefore, they should not be ignored in any science.
    However, due to ignorance of these circumstances, the actual economic process ‘goods-money-goods’ is described not with a linear differential equation with constant coefficients, but with a linear differential equation with variable coefficients, which is often referred to as the parametric differential equation. This is accounted for by the aforementioned unpredictability of human behavior, or the human factor, which was referred to as ‘the invisible hand’ by Adam Smith. For this reason, the coefficients of the parametric differential equation describing the real ‘goods-money-goods’ process are not just functions of time, but random functions of time. Therefore, these differential equations have no analytical solution. As for the market economy which is described by systems of these parametric differential equations, it is unpredictable; this is why economic crises in it are inevitable.
    Consequently, in order to be able to prevent economic crises, it is necessary to reform the economy. To this end, it is necessary to create the conditions providing for minimization of the human factor. The author suggests new economic tools enabling to solve the problem. Here belong business-interfaces, which provide for minimization of the internal human factor, and the new global information network free from the shortcomings of the Internet, which provides for minimization of the external human factor. The latter offers its users numerous business- and intellectually-oriented services.
    Socialist economy also provided for the successful suppression of the human factor (at that, contrary to business-interfaces, human rights and freedoms were suppressed, as well). Nevertheless, it was a prosperous economy. Therefore, business-interfaces must provide for linearization of the actual ‘goods-money-goods’ processes, i.e., for minimization of non-linear factors.
    The economy reformed as suggested above will become crisis-proof, and economics will become an exact science similar to the theory of electric circuits and systems, which is ‘the white box’ with regard to ‘the black box’ of economics.

      CommentedJonathan Lam

      Gamesmith94134: Dr. Doom Warns Wall Street and Washington---- Heed Karl Marx's Warning!


      Mr. Gert van Vugt,
      You make the best description on the theory on the economical growth Paradigm that the economic change seems like Malthusian’s diminishing return, and I agree. However, Mr. Roubini makes his point on the social disruption reverse itself through the diminishing demand. If we can put away the elements like the Ponzi scheme and benefactors in social caused deficiency or defects to growth. Corruption by capitalism and the dependency by socialism among societies both caused failure in the economical and societal development.
      Perhaps, we focus on the circuitry on the accumulation of wealth and consumable wealth that runs the economy. It seems both the capitalism and socialism ran short and proven wrong in the economical model or social model that became self-destructive; eventually, the economy runs from diminishing demand to diminishing return, or vice versa. So, if we use the living standard as the equilibrium position to the supply line of the circuitry of wealth balanced by both of the diminishing return and diminishing demand.
      How about I call my paradigm on the wealth circuitry in economical and social growth that supports and balances both accumulated wealth and consumable wealth; and it created a “Z” shaped development running both on the diminishing demand and diminishing return; which is based on the assumption, the route above the standard of living equal in length with the one below the standard of living is in agreement of its living standard to sustain a viable growth, which contains;
      • The base line as the diminishing return where the societies kept peace with its populace that consumable wealth that cause economical displacement like with its negative growth or no growth; it provides entitlement or social programs with non-productive individual citizens for example, 27% of its population on welfare with add-on with subsidies to sustain a standard of living.
      • The top line as the diminishing demand that ended with accumulated wealth favors of concentrated wealth owned by individuals that ended with profitless, 1% holds 27% of the global or national wealth, plus those with extra wealth is not in production yields to no growth.
      • And the diagonal line that connected to both ends is the support of the price and value in the middle is the standard of living which contains the most of the productive individuals who is moving up and down the ladder of growth.
      If more of the wealth accumulated than the wealth consumed, then it causes saturation of the wealth. The diminishing demand under the standard of living agreement made the demand idle because of the shortage of consumption. In the process, the standard of living will go down to meet its demand after the deflationary measure to make it consumable. In reverse, the wealth consumed is over the wealth accumulated, as it is less profitable. Then, it triggers the inflationary measures to aggregate demand to accumulate more wealth in its diminishing return mode; eventually it will balance itself again with the agreement of the standard living with a viable growth.
      It is not the supply and demand. It is rather the circuitry of wealth under the spells of the lower living standard that diminishing demand is being part of the deflationary measure. If the accumulated wealth became saturated, then it means the lower living standard that made the demand finite like lesser demand in loan of dollars in ECB.
      I am certain I am not being introspective; I may twist the theory a little; but the proof of the lower living standard in Europe made it plausible.
      May the Buddha bless you?

  3. CommentedProcyon Mukherjee

    The growth story of developing nations like India is still heavily tilted towards demographics, the gains in absolute basis of measurement therefore is no measure for progress. For example if one goes by the data given in the seminal paper ‘This Time is Different’, one would notice how on relative basis GDP of India as a percentage of world GDP had diminished over time; this relative measure of progress shows that in 1940s in pre-independence era India had higher share of world GDP than now. Christine Lagard’s basic view is right but the bulk of world’s capital stock still chases returns that can only be attained in matured developed nations where management and organization is far advanced to render superior value and not the other way round.

    Procyon Mukherjee

  4. CommentedKen Peterson

    African poverty:

    Assuming a planetary economy extant over the past 200 years and an exponential growth rate of 3%, we have a doubling every 25 years or 8 doublings during our history.
    Considering the metaphorical chessboard and current world conditions, some things have hit the limits of growth.
    Ignoring all the papers, books, and seminars created by the intelligentsia of academia, a moments reflection by a fool reveals the limits of exponential growth.
    Facing the inevitable, Africa might be a good place to try out sustainable economics.

Featured