Saturday, November 1, 2014
4

马里奥·德拉基的八月炮火

华盛顿——欧洲历史上8月一直是个危险的月份,但今年却有可能成为欧元区——甚至世界经济的转折点。7月26日,欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉基宣布欧洲央行将“不惜一切代价”保住欧元,并补充说:“相信我,我们肯定有足够的方法确保实现目标。”

德拉基前所未有的强势声明被广泛视为欧洲央行将很快重启债券购买计划的标志,而此次重启该计划西班牙债券将成为主要目标。世界各地股市因此出现飙升。德意志银行行长魏德曼立刻表达了保留意见,但第二天,德国总理安格拉·默克尔和法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德迅速发表联合声明,表达了“竭尽全力保护欧元区”的决心。

不久前曾经提出欧洲央行与新成立的欧洲稳定机制(ESM)联手,才是拯救欧元区的唯一方法。上述机构可以提前公布目标,在一段时间内从二级市场买入意大利和西班牙等国的债券,从而使两国的主权利率保持在设定的界限以下。

德拉基发表声明后欧洲央行实际购买西班牙(和意大利)主权债券的可能性很大。像德拉基这样的人如果无法肯定能兑现承诺,就不会发表这样的声明。可如果想成为欧元区危机的决定性转折点,还必须具备三个条件。

首先,欧洲央行重启债券购买时必须明确要将主权利率降低到可持续水平的目标,而可持续水平至少要比七月份的平均利率低200个基点。据悉一位德国高层外交官最近拒绝了西班牙提出的6.5-7%的利率,理由是西班牙在20世纪90年代就以近乎相同的利率借过钱。但令人惊讶的是,这种说法忽视了西班牙加入欧盟以前较高的通胀率,进而混淆了实际和名义利率,以及更快的GDP增长。

对那些执行既定改革方案的国家,欧洲央行应当致力于使利率下降至与预期通胀率和增长率相配套的水平,而且必须公布实现上述目标的期限(比方说九个月)。缺少了上述公开目标的分散计划不太可能生效,甚至有可能产生副作用,因为私人投资者完全可以要求更高的回报,理由是欧洲央行不断扩大的债务份额完全可以视为优先债务,从而导致普通投资者的风险有所增强。

如果欧洲央行宣布——并且展示出在很长一段时间内不惜一切代价降低利率的决心,实际情况就不会是这样。这样做将使欧元区建立起进一步合作及一体化的制度和法律手段,就像欧洲议会在6月会议上达成一致的那样。

必须做到的第二件事情是欧元区的领导人和议会必须与法院合作积极推进机构改革,从而在建立欧洲稳定机制的同时建立银行工会,实现部分债务共同化。但因为继续加深经济主权一体化是解决欧元区困境的唯一长期方案,所以这样的改革不会很快达到目标。欧洲央行的作用也因此变得极为关键。欧元区再也无法承受周边国家持续的不确定性和高企的实际利率,因此欧洲央行必须搭建起通往未来的坚实可靠的桥梁。

最后,调整计划本身必须经过仔细的验证。我们应该清楚的看到,前紧后松的过度紧缩措施往往有可能弄巧成拙,因为这些措施会引发产量、就业和税收的螺旋式下降。其实,国际货币基金组织欧元区的最新报告也谨慎地表达了类似的看法。

削减赤字的步伐必须放缓,特别是在西班牙,因为产量在短期内由需求决定,而除非对未来的信心在一定程度上得以恢复,否则私人需求就无法替代公共需求。上述支持有效需求的行动从长远看必须与能实现快速供应增长的结构性改革相结合。

如果这三个步骤——即欧洲央行控制主权利率的债券买入计划,建立真正经济联盟的具体进展以及对当前调整方案从实际出发的修改——能够最终一揽子实现,那么欧洲央行需要用于债券购买的资源将会下降,因为信誉将会有所恢复。即使将来欧洲还将面对更多的坏消息——比方说希腊问题,或者中国经济放缓的幅度超出预期——欧元区也可能从本月开始走出危机模式。

但这次只有“重型武器”真正到位才有可能实现这样的目标。否则,欧元区的经济、政治和社会地位将很快变得不可救药。

翻译:Xu Binbin

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  1. CommentedMargaret Bowker

    A late comment - Well, August was quiet in the markets and as Kermal Dervis hoped the ECB put the 'big bazooka' in place in early September, with the priviso of conditionality, which itself is becoming more workable with the recent constructive statements from various Eurozone countries and the IMF. At first, there was anxiety that the OMT would not actually be in a position to act, but a week later, it's looking much more likely. So will it be needed, or does it just need to be there ready and able? In either case, it provides the secure environment needed for Euro policy to be amended.

  2. CommentedSunil Mujumdar

    Only problem with the Bailout math is the use of ESM. Only 80B real money and of the commitments - Here is some of the contribution key in terms of Firepower

    Italy 125B, Spain 83B, Belgium 24B, Greece 20B, Portugal 17B, Slovenia 3B, Cyprus 1.3B, Ireland 1.3B

    And all mentioned above need help. So the real solution is to print the money. Which in my mind is just the softer side of default. Traditionally same as devaluation.

  3. CommentedZsolt Hermann

    I am not surprised that the writer is optimistic, he is a former politician himself, so he got used to saying only what people want to hear even it has nothing to do with reality.
    Not only in Europe, but globally politicians have been coming out with exactly similar statements for years now without any true solution or long term effect.
    To be fair it is not their fault, they simply try to avoid mass panic by admitting that they have no solutions to the problems.
    And the reason they have no solution is that we do not look for the main cause of the crisis, instead we try superficial cosmetic surgery here and there, mostly trying to keep the financial institutions floating basically gradually sacrificing everything else.
    Until we understand and accept that we stubbornly push on with the wrong socio-economic system in the wrong conditions, basically refusing to adapt to evolutionary changes around us, we will continue digging ourselves deeper into crisis.
    It will most probably take a totally new generation of leaders and a globally educated public, understanding reality around us, to start climbing out of this mess and start building a new human system.

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