The World in Words
乌克兰民主与漠然旁观者
Nina L. Khrushcheva
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莫斯科 ——
诸如“你们俩都见鬼去吧”这样的话，若出自一个对参选的政治候选人倍感失望的个人之口时，也许还算是一种恰当的回应；但对政府而言，这却是一种危险的情绪。治国的关键便在于抉择。因此，无论出于何种原因而拒绝做出选择，都将是一种推卸责任的行为。
不过看起来，这种冷漠的态度正是整个西方在对待即将到来的乌克兰总统大选第二轮时所持有的立场。由于 2004 年的橙色革命已经蜕变为一场似乎永无尽头的失望之旅，因此大部分西方领导人对于结局都表现出一副无关痛痒的模样：仿佛在二月七日的总统选举中，无论获胜者是尤利娅 • 季莫申科总理、还是其竞争对手维克多·亚努科维奇，都没有差别一样。
他们错了，这些人不仅没有正确认识到这场选举对于乌克兰国民来说具有何种意义（该国民众已经坚强地忍受了诸多苦难），也误解了它对于整个欧亚大陆的安全与稳定所具有的意义。因为如果橙色革命证明了什么的话，这便是乌克兰的政治并非那种权力能在相互对立、但都认同民主制度基本原则的势力之间、以一种可以预测的方式来回易主的钟摆型模式。事实上，人们从亚努科维奇自己的话中便可清楚地看到，他并不认同橙色革命的合法性，这就意味着亚努科维奇并不接受“你不可通过欺骗手段获得权力”这一民主制度的根本原则。
亚努科维奇的反民主立场并不令人感到诧异。人们常会谈到他的犯罪记录问题，但使他身陷囹圄的具体罪行却从未被点破，现在就让我来道出这其中的真相。
1967 年 12 月 15 日 ，当年十七岁的亚努科维奇因为抢劫和性侵犯这两项罪名被判入狱三年；而三年之后，他又因被判犯有谋杀罪而再度入狱；不过，由于种种不明原因，苏维埃法庭于 1978 年、在亚努科维奇加入共产党前夕，将他的犯罪记录一笔勾销。
不过，亚努科维奇在 2006 年被指控伪造文件，而这几份文件正是曾被用来消除其此前判决结果的那些文件；两份曾被用来推翻其强奸与抢劫判决的关键文件就是被伪造出来的；而且，亚努科维奇一案中的法官签名同样也是仿冒品。
一个不知悔改、两次被判有罪的暴力重罪犯，一个曾图谋窃取总统选举胜利果实、并鼓吹要对那些以和平方式抗议其竞选舞弊行为的男男女女加以暴力镇压的人，无论成为何种公职的候选者，都将是一件令人难以置信的事，更不用说还去竞选一个有近五千万人口的大国总统职位这一举动了。亚努科维奇参选一事，在很大程度上便暴露出了其支持者的本来面目，也揭示了乌克兰民主制度的脆弱性。
当然，季莫申科也非圣贤。她在后苏维埃时代天然气产业的混战中杀出了一条血路，于这一商业领域取得了成功；而她的反对者，则始终试图以罪行来为她的商业生涯抹黑。不过，即便是在整个乌克兰的司法体系都被这些人完全掌控之际，他们也未能使任何犯罪指控成立。
关于季莫申科，她在从政期间的表现则更为重要。 2008 年 9 月，全球正处在世界金融大崩溃的边缘之上；在此后的一年中，由季莫申科所领导的政府一直在采取行动、以保持国际稳定，即便这些措施意味着她将在国内承受政治方面的打击。而在此次危机爆发后数日之内，季莫申科政府便开始与国际货币基金组织、就确保获得贷款这一问题进行谈判，这笔贷款可以为乌克兰经济抵御最坏情况提供支持；尽管对于贷款条件之苛刻，该国内部存在着政治上的反对意见，但双方仍以接近纪录的速度达成了协议。
虽然全世界都在这场危机中吃尽了苦头，但乌克兰所受之创伤更甚于他国，这是因为国际钢铁需求大幅下降，而钢铁出口恰好占到了该国 2008 年上半年出口总量的 42% 。而当危机进一步加速之时，尽管乌克兰有着良好的公共财政状况和较少的外债，但该国还是完全切断了与国际金融市场的联系。
一年之后，乌克兰经济出现好转。在经历了 2008 年年末和 2009 年年初的那段恐怖下滑之后，该国的工业产量在七月份出现了 5% 的月度环比增长。看来乌克兰在 2010 年有可能重现稳健的经济增长。
在巨大的压力之下，季莫申科政府成功地控制住了预算赤字；通货膨胀率也从 2008 年 5 月的 31% ，缩减为如今的 10% 左右；经常项目赤字几乎被彻底消除，而银行业危机也得到了遏制；乌克兰的外汇储备达到了令人安心的 260 亿美元，这几乎相当于该国 GDP 的四分之一；而其汇率也得到了调整，在如今的国际背景下，它同样显得相对稳定，这为该国的国际竞争力打好了基础。
季莫申科政府也在天然气行业中与旧体制划清了界限，并在这一过程中强化了欧洲的能源安全。季莫申科冒着可观的国内政治风险，与俄罗斯缔结了一份内容透明、以市场为导向的天然气运输与购买长期协议；此外，她还在乌克兰天然气领域以及天然气运输体系的改革问题上、与欧盟、世界银行、欧洲复兴开发银行以及欧洲投资银行签订了涉及范围广泛的协议。而竞选资金主要依赖于腐化的能源旧体制下、那些主要受益者的亚努科维奇，则似乎肯定将要推翻这一系列改革，这将会把巨大的风险重新引入欧洲能源市场之中。
此外，季莫申科还不顾来自于其政治对手的巨大、且往往不负责任的抵制努力，对乌克兰的危机进行了管理，当政府拒绝接受那些将会对金融稳定努力构成伤害的民粹主义提议时，这些政治对手常常会使议会陷入瘫痪。而令人惊讶的是，维克多·亚努科维奇总统却经常否决那些为稳定过程所必须的决定，其中就包括私有化方面的一切努力。
季莫申科由于力保乌克兰在过去十五个月间没有陷入困境，理应获得来自西方的感谢，而不是我们如今所见的犬儒态度。而亚努科维奇的暴力史以及他对民主规范的蔑视都已根深蒂固，我们无法想象若他赢得总统大选的话，他还会允许他人再一次挑战其地位。亚努科维奇在今日的胜利，也许就将是乌克兰在未来很长一段时期内的最后一次自由选举了。
妮娜·赫鲁晓娃系《想像纳博科夫:艺术与政治之间的俄罗斯》一书的作者，她在新学院开设有国际事务课程，并在纽约世界政策研究所担任高级研究员。
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.
www.project-syndicate.org
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cherkasy5 03:57 03 Feb 10
This article by Khrushcheva is just one more slanted propaganda job straight out of Tymoshenko campaign headquarters, which contains the same shallow arguments that Tymo's academic lackeys have been trying to shove down the throats of the Western diplomatic community for the last 6 months.
Western policymakers, like Ukraine's voters, are not buying into Yulia Tymoshenko's empty rhetoric. This presidential campaign is a referendum on which candidate lies less and treats the Ukrainian people with less cynicism. Yanukovich looks bad until you examine the alternative. Underneath her thin rhetorical veil, Yulia Tymoshenko is an autocrat who is potentially the next Hugo Chavez or Aleksandr Lukashenka or Vladimir Putin.
At least if Yanukovich wins, we can be pretty certain that there will be another democratic election in 2015 where voters will have the option of voting him out. Whereas Tymoshenko's only ideology is gaining and keeping power. The democratic process or the desire of Ukraine's voters to hear an honest message means nothing to her.
dmytrop 09:59 03 Feb 10
TODAY - 3 days before the run off - Party of Regions with the support from the Communist Party and MPs loyal to Yushchenko approved with 233 votes ammendments to the Law on Presidential Elections, which totally destroys the principle of parity between the candidates in the electoral commissions and opens the space for mass falsifications and election fraud.
hat0891 10:41 04 Feb 10
I would expect more from the author, given her credentials.
The article is visibly biased and at times even manipulative. The author capitalizes on Yanukovych's alleged criminal past, but does not similarly mention Tymoschenko's, who even spent some time in jail for tax evasion.
I was surprised to read the author's praise of Tymoschenko for her for "keeping the budget deficit under control". This is simply not true. To gain more support, Tymoschenko pursued populist policies and irresponsibly increased budget deficit, particularly in the run-up to the elections. This was a major reason why IMG rejected issuing the fourth tranche of a loan aimed at combating consequences of the economic crisis.
The author tries to argue that Tymoschenko is the lesser of the two evils. I have recently came back from a research trip to Ukraine and I have talked to many liberal-minded pro-EU, pro-NATO people who were saying that if they have to choose from these two, they would actually prefer Yanukovych. Their rationale is that under Yanukovych there are more chances for Ukraine retaining a strong opposition, and therefore more checks on the government, than under Tymoschenko, who is widely described as more charismatic, but also more authoritarian and "Putin-like" personality.
dmytrop 01:53 04 Feb 10
Dear hat0891,
1. Yanukovich will stick to wage rises that were passed in parliament at the end of last year, which prompted the suspension of the IMF programme because the increases would boost the budget deficit. http://www.kyivpost.com/news/politics/detail/58502/
2. If "Tymoschenko is widely described as more charismatic, but also more authoritarian and "Putin-like" personality" - why there are "more chances for Ukraine retaining a strong opposition under Yanukovych? Looks like either the "liberal-minded" people you met are missing rationality, or you mistakenly equals prowestern (or just anti-Russian?) people with the liberal ones.
PS. Next time reporting on the results of your "research" in Ukraine, could you please focus more on beer and wine than politics? Thanks!
hat0891 03:40 04 Feb 10
@dmytrop,
I am not advancing a particular political agenda unlike you. I only expressed my feeling about the bias that contained in the article. Neither I am making impolite remarks about others (again, unlike you). I suggest you behave accordingly.
As to your arguments, you are missing the point:
1. In terms of pursuing short-termist populist policies, Tymoschenko is no different from Yanukovych. Both have pursued and will pursue populist short-termist policies to gain public support.
2. Some people in Ukraine (yes liberal, but not necessarily "anti-Russian", as you suggest) indeed feel that there would be more danger of usurpation of power if Tymoschenko comes to power, namely because of her ambitions and personality.
In their arguments they proceed from a premise that, if defeated, Yanukovich will end his political career and many influential figures from PoR will move to Tymoschenko’s camp, therefore leaving Ukraine with a much weakened opposition and fewer check on the executive.
On the other hand, if Yanukovich wins, his support base will still be limited to mainly eastern Ukraine
and will be kept under check by a strong opposition,
among them Tymoschenko
.
This theoretically may ensure that there is no usurpation of power by either political force.
FFTMMFA 04:30 04 Feb 10
hat0891,
So then wouldn't Tymoshenko be confronted by the likes of Yushchenko and his camp - they have split, afterall, and are not as chummy as they were in 2004. The hope for Ukraine is that Tymoshenko wins and the opposition unites around the more liberal (more liberal than Yanukovich, that is) Yushschenko. Such a scenario is plausible and would help to keep the flame of democracy alive in Ukraine. With Yanukovich, such an outcome is much less likely. Besides, who wants a rapist and murderer as President? It's ok for the Transdnieper, I suppose, but not a major European state such as Ukraine.
Regards,
FFTMMFA
dmytrop 07:09 04 Feb 10
Dear hat0891,
1. Yanukovich is already a weak opposition and finally must go. 10% margin in the first round against the opponent - prime minister of the country which has almost defaulted in the crisis? Secondly - how many Ukrainian "liberals" not warning you about Tymoshenko's ambitions have you seen in UKraine? Not many, I assume. This is the best check. As well as (potential) reforms conditioned on the international assistance.
2. Yanukovych was convinced twice. There are documents and you can easily find them online (if you read in Ukrainian). He is not denying this, BTW. So Yanukovych's criminal past is not "alleged", as you are wroting. Alleged is his criminal present and future - the stolen 2nd round of the 2004 elections.
So I'm not terribly polite with you not because I'm happy with Tymoshenko - she is really not saint at all - just because you are not an expert on the issue. Or just lying.
dmytrop 07:21 04 Feb 10
FFTMMFA, pure our opposition if it will try to unite around Yushchenko with his 5% in the 1st round.
chykulay 09:11 09 Feb 10
During 2009 our NGO 'Forum of Ukrainians of the Czech Republic'
conducted extensive research about the ongoing and serious influence
of ex-KGB and ex-Communist leaders in Ukraine's state system. The
results are extremely revealing, in terms of why NATO and EU
membership remain so far out of Ukraine's reach, and why Ukraine
continues to flounder instead of making headway towards a transparent
democratic system.
File for download http://www.box.net/shared/l7yz6xbabe
Scribd http://www.scribd.com/doc/24044731/LUSTRATION-or-Ukraine-under-KGB-Control
It is very difficult to raise public and critical awareness about
these issues in Ukraine, due to systemic problems with political and
media freedom...
Sincerely,
Boris Chykulay
dmytrop 12:47 10 Feb 10
Boris,
Thanks for the report. Its interesting.
Though correlation between the KGB past and the parliamentary present can not be seen from this analysis - it would be great to see how the voting on komsomol correlates with the KGB past of each separate MP.
Dmytro
hsgross 01:40 03 Feb 10
Would be tragic if Ukraine returns to a thugocracy.