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Against the Current by Robert Skidelsky |
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CHICAGO – Time is not on the side of peacemakers in the Middle East. Even relentless optimists are giving up. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become increasingly overshadowed and orchestrated on both sides by extreme and uncompromising religious groups that view their political mandate as holy and sacred.
This is hindering any peaceful resolution in the short run and will prove increasingly prohibitive to a political settlement in the long run. More than ever, peace is an unattainable mirage.
During the last 25 years, various competing stakeholders in the region have embraced religion as the dominant paradigm in determining their domestic policies. In many Arab countries, the fundamentalist revival is as significant as it is disconcerting. Hezbollah has emerged in Lebanon as a potent force, Iraq has been transformed from one of the Middle East’s most secular countries into a theocratic-militant state, and Hamas is now surging in Palestine and diluting the authority of President Mahmoud Abbas.
Much of religious fundamentalism’s political strength derives from fundamentalists’ increasing share of the population. This demographic shift is occurring not only in the Muslim world, but also in Israel.
Israel has been slowly evolving from a culturally Jewish democracy into a religiously dominated one. Israel’s Haredi ultra-orthodox religious community, for example, is growing at a rate so high that it is redefining the political landscape. According to Israeli government statistics, Haredi Jews average 7.6 children per woman, almost three times the rate of the population as a whole. Of the Israeli Knesset’s 120 members, 20 (all male) are ultra-Orthodox, up from five just a couple of decades ago.
The number of ultra-Orthodox in the Knesset is projected to grow further as their constituents multiply. In the fractured political landscape typical of Israel, this would make it possible for organized religious parties to exert significant power over the government.
At the same time, many educated and secular Israelis are choosing to emigrate, seeking a life without ceaseless conflicts. It is estimated that about half a million Israelis, including 25% of Israel’s leading scholars, now reside in the United States. Indeed, some 40,000 Israelis reside in Silicon Valley alone. These emigrants are indirectly accelerating the demographic changes in Israel, which benefit the religious right.
Some argue that attraction to ultra-Orthodoxy is a rejection of the Western liberal tradition. Religious observance requires serious social and economic sacrifices. Many men attend yeshivas (Orthodox Jewish schools of higher instruction) until the age of forty, thus failing to accumulate valuable human capital applicable to the secular market place. As their numbers continue to grow, so may strain on the Israeli economy.
Indeed, with many of Israel’s best minds leaving their homeland, will Israel be able to remain integrated into an increasingly global economy? As the demographics continue to change, Israeli policymakers must grapple with difficult new realities.
The high birth rate of ultra-Orthodox Israelis is also having an impact on the political decisions that directly affect the peace process with the Palestinians. Most of the 200,000 settlers in the West Bank are extremely religious. They view their presence on the West Bank as an obligation to a higher authority than the Israeli government represents.
Both Israel’s religious right and Hamas in Gaza believe that their swelling numbers are a source of strength, despite the scarcity of other resources. Absent from both groups is the notion of negotiation and compromise.
As a result, however dangerous the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran may be – for the world, for Israel, and for Sunni Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt – an Iranian “bomb” might be more manageable than the demographic time bomb facing Israel and its immediate neighbors.
Time is running out. Demography is reshaping Israel and the Middle East. Passionate believers are manifesting themselves as the local representatives of the “Almighty” on Earth. New breeds of holy warriors are marginalizing secular national leaders. Divinely inspired rulers usually do not lead mankind down an auspicious path. Today’s breeds are no different.
Raja Kamal is associate dean at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2008.
www.project-syndicate.org
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Hi-tech companies have invested millions and billions into Israel. Most of Intels chips are developed here - including the one in your PC you wrote this malicious article. We have nothing here but brain power - until now no oil. Even with the non-productivity of the Haredim and the months of army service and reserve duty and wars we have reached the status of 'developed ' country. We have no foreign debt and have the highest growth rate in the developed world. +- 4%. for the last 5. From personal awareness most emigrants come back or plan to come back. There is no richer life for a Jew or for than anybody than this country. In the wars I attended each soldier really believed that the outcome depended on him. The feeling of belonging is immense and I have hardly heard anybody leave for that. As far as a Jew goes this is the best period in our long history. All our 'martyrs' don't add up to a slow day in Auschwitz.
Re:40000 engineers in Silicon Valley, someone asked the president why he was investing all those millions in Israel - he replied his engineers were home-sick!
Facts - we have the most foreign companies registered on Wall Street. We have over double the amount of engineers per capita than the States. We have the most patents in the world after USA and Canada. And we have saved millions though our medical hi-tech. If you really don't like us refuse the stent when your heart gets blocked!
Iranian bomb. I honestly am so sad of the Iranians who are living now but wont be in a short time. But this is the result of a fascist regime similar to so many others here who hold the population in constant total terror.
I am an American Jew and a staunch supporter of Israel. I found the article by professor Kamal to be logical and sadly, accurate. The increased control of religious groups is indeed alarming. Jerusalem is piratically controlled by religious groups determining when to drive and how to conduct business. I shared the article with two of my cousins in Israel, and they both agreed with Kamal's assessment. About a week ago, I read an article in the Miami Herald stating that some religious group are about to settle in the Jordan Valley creating yet more obstacle to peace. The permission to create the new settlement was lobbied by a religious political party. I feel the article was a centrist and logical. Religious groups were not able to achieve peace in Northern Ireland--national politician did. Good article. Sam
"New breeds of holy warriors are marginalizing secular national leaders", el nacionalismo laico y mas o menos socialista no dió resultado. Los pueblos van probando nuevas cosas. La religión pareciera ser útil para proveer la presencia de ánimo que se necesita para luchar contra enemigos temibles de los pueblos.
This article is another sample of switching facts to suit ideology. The percentage of haredi have remained the same since 48 as a result of many, many "returning to question" ie becoming secular , and the huge influx of secular immigrants. (From the ex-Soviet Union for instance - one fifth of the population - one million but also other areas where the Jews are threatened). The increase in Haredi members of the Knesset is a result of the Shas party who are indeed haredi but are voted in for social reasons most of whom are traditional Sepharadi but certainly not Haredi. To call the Haredi warriors is a big joke. Not only dont they the state of Israel (until the Messiah arrives) but they are almost totally exempted from the army. They mainly refuse to stand to attention, during the two minute siren remebering the fallen.
Ideology and such diatribes should be honest - to the point where the honesty hurts. Sorry mate. Try another avenue.