Remaking the Middle East

Richard N. Haass

President Bush, Palestinian Premier Mazen, and Israel's Prime Minister Sharon are poised to meet. Is America serious about bringing peace to Palestine and Israel? Where does this meeting fit in the overall US Middle East strategy? Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning in the US State Department, offers his road map to the entire Middle East region.

What was accomplished in Iraq--and, more importantly, what the Iraqi people will now accomplish with American help--will determine the future of one of the Middle East's key countries. An open, market_oriented, and peaceful Iraq could also advance reform and growth across the entire region. But far-reaching change both in Iraq and the Middle East is certain to take time.

The post-Saddam challenge in Iraq has four components: humanitarian, security-related, economic, and political. The humanitarian challenge has been less burdensome than anticipated, thanks to advance planning by the US and the world community and to the rapid, focused, and discriminate way in which coalition forces fought the war.

Some pockets of humanitarian need remain, but the massive crisis that was anticipated thankfully never materialized. Refugees and internally displaced persons are relatively few; supplies of food, water and medicine are mostly adequate or at least improving. The US government has provided some $600 million through UN agencies and non-governmental organizations to meet immediate humanitarian demands.

We also need to restore basic order in Iraq. Security is the absolute precondition for sustainable recovery from conflict; without it, people cannot rebuild their country or return to school or work. Saddam's removal sparked a wave of looting, lawlessness, and score settling. The immediate priority is to put an end to this violence.

Beyond this, international forces must secure and eliminate all weapons of mass destruction; prevent ethnic and religious tensions from erupting into violence; ensure that none of Iraq's neighbors exacerbates an already volatile situation. Over the longer term, we must help Iraqis rebuild their police and military forces so that they can provide their own safety and security without threatening anyone.

Economic reconstruction is more accurately thought of as economic renewal . Physical capital is in a better state than expected, and modern Iraq benefits from a deep reservoir of human capital. Unlike many recent post_conflict situations, there is much raw material to work with. The US is making available more than $2 billion to support early reconstruction efforts. Oil output is coming back on line in meaningful quantities. Longer-run challenges include increasing oil production and tackling Iraq's huge outstanding debt. The UN Security Council's decision to remove all sanctions is a welcome step forward.

Assisting Iraq's political regeneration may be the most difficult task, given the many religious, ethnic, geographic and political divisions that characterize Iraqi society. Still, the cynics and skeptics are wrong. America's goal--an Iraq that is intact, possesses a representative government, and respects the rule of law--is no pipe dream, particularly in view of the country's educated population and sizable middle class.

The international community can realize this goal if it is prepared to stay the course and work with Iraqis until the fundamentals of a democratic society take hold. Responsible Iraqi leaders must be helped to channel today's tremendous political ferment in constructive directions.

What happens in Iraq will obviously have an impact on the wider region. But it won't determine the Middle East's fate.

It is difficult to think of a foreign policy issue that preoccupies and polarizes world opinion as much as the Palestinian question. Nearly one year ago, President George W. Bush declared his goal of bringing about a democratic Palestinian state, one prepared to live in peace beside Israel. Working with Russia, the EU, and the UN, the US developed a roadmap designed to take us in stages toward this goal. The emergence of a new Palestinian Prime Minister and government constitutes an important opening.

The task now is to persuade Palestinians and Israelis to begin the process, to start taking steps to improve the situation on the ground so that they can tackle more far_reaching matters at the negotiating table. Terrorists cannot be allowed to forever frustrate the search for peace.

But nor will resolving the Palestine question fix all the Middle East's problems. The challenges posed by Iran are clear_cut: it is developing weapons of mass destruction and has a history of supporting terror. Such behavior flouts the norms and rules of the international community and isolates Iran and its people. Continuation of these actions will have consequences. But if Iran turns away from terror and its pursuit of catastrophic weapons, it will find a US prepared to recast the relationship. The US is similarly prepared to respond if Syria demonstrates far_reaching changes in behavior.

A more general issue is the relative lack of openness in the region's political systems and economies. For too long, America tolerated a "democratic exception" in the Muslim Middle East. As long as governments were friendly and backed regional stability, there was no need for outsiders to encourage representative government.

We have learned the hard way that closed political systems breed resentment and extremism aimed against the interests of America, the West, and, indeed, the entire world. That is why we support democracy and political reform through the Middle East Partnership Initiative launched by Secretary of State Colin Powell in December 2002.

Closed economic systems also pose a danger. As last year's "Arab Human Development Report" made clear, the Arab Middle East lags far behind other regions in key measures, including individual freedom, women's empowerment, and economic and social development.

For too long, these countries watched economic prosperity pass them by. President Bush is determined to help Arabs share the benefits of economic liberty. Realizing his recent proposal to establish a US_Middle East free trade area within a decade would lay a strong foundation.