Wednesday, September 17, 2014
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欧元区的金规则

伦敦—在很多批评家眼里,欧洲货币联盟看上去极像1913年之前的金本位——在大相径庭的经济体间维系固定汇率。但这样的相似性真的像批评家们所说的那样坏吗?

批评历史金本位的出发点在于塑造信心的制度性力量。完全固定的汇率排除了货币政策的作用,从而导致大规模外部失衡极难消除。而由此带来的负担并不是均匀的,因为赤字国面临着更大的通过通缩调整的压力,相比之下,债权国不得不承受通胀的压力要小一些。

悲观派尤其担心金本位类比和教训。他们预测,未来几年甚至几十年欧洲都将经历低增长。而从政治上说,赤字国的通缩调整过程将十分痛苦和艰难,以至于许多悲观派认为迟早无法持续下去。

但欧元批评家在用金本位作类比时应该更谨慎些。与任何真实世界制度一样,欧元制度的复杂性、趣味性和实际政策可能性都要比教科书上所写的多得多。

首先,并不存在因某些所谓的调整机制的特征所导致的自动通缩压力。整体通缩——或通胀——影响的问题取决于(过去是,现在仍是)货币总量。

因此,在大型新金矿被发现的时期——比如1849年加州淘金热以及19世纪90年南非、阿拉斯加和澳大利亚金矿代因采矿技术进步而得到开发——古典金本位就会出现一定的通胀倾向。但是,在纸币时代,币值与某种贵金属(事实上,可以是任何一种商品)的实体存量之间的联系已不复存在,因此,没有任何理由要求央行放弃总体通胀率目标。事实上,几乎所有的现代中央银行,包括欧洲央行在内,均以此目标为己任。

金本位的第二个教训是资本市场一体化的程度边界。20世纪90年代初,决策者、市场参与者和经济学家均认为欧共体的“1992计划”——即单一市场、进而是单一资本市场的法律框架——将创造一个新现实,在单一市场中,单一货币将收到奇效。由此带来的一个正式义务是对货币联盟中所有类型的风险一视同仁,不管是银行风险还是政府风险,统统没有区别。

但金本位——以及其他大型共同货币区——的历史要复杂得多。尽管从理论上说,资本可以到达世界上任何一个偏远角落,但实际上,有大量资本只是在本地活动。债权人和银行总是偏好于和认识的借款人打交道,也偏爱地方法院能够解决纠纷的地区。

尤其是,金本位的一个重要方面是个体国家央行出于影响资本流动方向的目的自行确定利率。这也成为金本位世界的核心特征:流失黄金储备的国家会收紧利率以吸引货币。

金本位规则与现代货币联盟实践大相径庭,后者建立在单一普遍利率的基础上。一刀切意味着南欧国家利率在2009年前一直处于过低状态,北欧这一直处于过高状态。金本位规则意味着南欧借款人会提高利率,从而将资金吸引到资本生产率更高的地区,与此同时,也能防止纯投机性资本流。

2008年金融危机爆发以来,欧洲金融行为出现了某种再国家化的倾向。20世纪90年代末进入货币联盟前后,大部分欧元区主权债务都是由国内债权人持有的:1998年,外国债权人债务持有比率只有五分之一。引入欧元后,这一比率出现了快速攀升。

2008年危机爆发前夕,葡萄牙债务的四分之三、西班牙和希腊债务的一半以及意大利债务的五分之二多由外国人持有,其中外国银行是大头,特别是希腊、葡萄牙和意大利债。欧洲央行的大规模长期再融资操作(LTRO)的一大成果是意大利银行再次开始购买意大利国债,西班牙银行也在购买西班牙债券。

德国经济部长罗斯勒(Philipp Rösler)给出了一个诱人的建议:欧洲中央银行体系成员应该自行确定利率(不过,有意思的是,他是站在明确的党派政客的立场,而不是政府部长立场上作此建议的)。自主决定利率将惩罚在南欧从当地央行借款的银行。与此同时,德国央行将降低利率,但南欧银行不可能获得此类信用用于本国市场。

另外,有迹象表明,各国央行正在利用现有框架内的腾挪空间,以避免采取重大政策变化。德国央行已宣布它不会再接受已由政府进行资本重组的银行的证券作为抵押品。

新的抵押品要求与自主利率的口风试探一起,暗示了一个令人瞩目的创新萌芽。危机之后,一些决策者开始认为,货币联盟并不一定意味着无约束的资本流动。承认信用质量的多样性是退回19世纪一步,与此同时,也是迈向更多市场导向、更少扭曲的货币政策的一步。不同国家不同汇率或许是通往稳定欧元区之门。

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  1. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134: Golden Rules for the Eurozone

    After reading the issue on regulating European insurers, I was dumbfounded for the attitude for which how Brussels see solvency works with the currency exchange. I apologize in resurfacing the old records that are relevant to the issue on the golden rules and insurers. I lost my appetite to write for days after the fall of 3% China Stock and DJ.

    Regulating European insurers---from Economists
    From Brussels, with shove
    “Solvency 2” will transform not just insurance but capital markets, too
    http://www.economist.com/node/21552224

    Just before we can see the foundation of the currencies exchanges rate in Libor and ECB’s large-scale long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) has been that Italian banks are once again buying Italian government bonds, and Spanish banks are buying Spanish bonds with its lower rates. But, we must realistically decide the two speeds economies in the EU system will not be integrated even Brussels cannot control or agree on many issues. Consequently, we must talk of the reality of growth that is not coming in the next years. It is not liquidity of Bank or solvency of the debts, but the basis of exchange and balance of trade id due to a correction.

    I only hope Mr. Harold James remember the consequences of the Lloyd of Landon (97) and AIG (2008), just before he suggested his golden rules for Euro Zone, and he may regret it; if his golden rules would ever polarize the developed nations and emerging market nations with more argument of the currency exchange rate or bagger thy neighbors could be eminent for the coming WTO meetings. Personally, I think EU or Euros will not last if its financial system is not complying with fairer trade on the foundation of good will.

    May the Buddha bless you?



    Gamesmith94134: Striking Euro Gold (and Silver) 11032011

    “Milton Friedman’s bimetallic standard inherently more stable than a monometallic (gold-based) regime.”

    When you recieve two bids of Euros, in from Germany and the other from Greece; you would take the bid from Germany over Greece. Would you discount the euros of Greece with 15% just for sake of the confidence vote? Why should you discriminate one over the other as in Euros? It was the deficiency of credit that Greece may bear or the contagion as you may believe. If it is the investment consisted of US dollar and Euro in the open market trading, you would have no choice on the bids. Reluctently, you may have to accept the higher bid, even though you realized that you are under the attack by a raider or hedge fund manager. Suddenly, you may lost your company with the lesser of 51% of the control of it. It is how hedge fund managers or raiders use monetarism to undermine the weaker ones with weak currencies even for sovereignty nations; since the open market system does not provide a gatekeeper to stop the manipulation. Since the investments from aboard may not create growth or productivity if there is not sufficient time to grow in completion of the business cycle or create productivity on the invested with no innovation or products. It is merely exchange of hands for such transaction. It is how the sovereignty debts are created under the influence of the activity of hedging with the cost of living rises; and loss of credit as the pooling of its fund weakens. Therefore, it is advisable to revive the bimetallic standard to create the gatekeeper on the handicaps of the domestic currencies and international currencies; whenever investments are made by the foreign communities or sovereignty debts.

    If the bussiness transaction happens in a community only like London, people buy, people sell within a single circuitry of currency that share the same standard of credits, commodities and culture; such transaction do not affect the value of the its currency or increase on productivity. If a foreign investment is involved; the circuitry expands or contracts for its excesses or shortages in the pooling of its currencies, or commodities. Subsequently, it would create a shortfall or surge in value of the exchange that is not a bottomline to the business cycle or productivity.

    When there is a 3% interest credit charge on the market, I would gain 2% with my 1% interest credit charge even I have my US dollars exchanged to British Pounds, since there is no handicaps on the exchange. It is why many complain on the fiat money and the liquidity traps when the foreign investments are often being manipulated the currency rate changes for a stronger currency to weaken its own that caused inflation of the weaker currency; or withdrew at great mass that cause the shortage of cashflow or credit.

    In term of redistribution of wealth, the middle class of earnings did not match the growth after inflation; because the investment was dislocated while business cycle was not completed; or the productivity was not sufficient for a pay raise in matching the profit growth. Perhaps, we can blame on the competitions, but there is no comparison if there is no foreign investment or import of goods; and if it were a enclosed environment that no export is made. But, if we are taking advanage of the foreign investment or imported goods or resources to create productivities, sovereignty nations must restore the soveignty currencies to safeguard its citizenry from the invasion of currencies or resources that creates hardship for its people and allot resources for the exchange of goods and services from the foreigners. Then, the citizen must not pay for what the banker did; and stop telling me to pay tax my million dollar house that I did not earn. Parhaps, the line is drawn that the politicians must realize they must pay their bills too; instead of raisng our tax for their mishaps.

    As we learn from the recent soveriegnty debt crisis an financial disaster, we are clear at principle of the fiscal and monetary system must sustain both of balance and growth. Free Trade must free of mainpulation of the resources or invasion of others by using currencies or political powers; and each sovereignty nations are entitled to feed its people with domestic currency and trade it goods with the common currency availbale to obtain a better bargain for imported or exported. In addition, I prefer Zones in continents in protection of the weaker sovereignty nations with its neighbors nations to fend off the unwelcomed transaction that would be considered as hostile; because some investments are not solely privatized as it claimed; and free trade must be invited and not broken in or out at free will. If we all play the same rule, the world would be better for the citizens and governments too.

    May the Buddha bless you?

  2. CommentedJonathan Lam

    gamesmith94134 08:07 06 Oct 11

    Gamesmith94134: Catching up is so very hard to do 67

    Justlistenall said well, ”how about “nations of higher living standards” in lieu of “rich nations”, except for those who really qualify as such?” It was not the yuan or GDP that make China the emerging nation; and the fact is the affordability that gives impetus to growth and not the higher living standard.

    If the rich nations must catch up the up-ward growth spiral, they must cut their living standard to make its people live to grow, instead of, strive to survive. The rich nations are only think of their people are rich but they are not; not afford to consume make its economies anemic. If they want to catch up, they must make it affordable for their people.

    Even if the troika can get 2 trillion to cover the PIIGS, the onward slow or anemic growth is not getting to the level of the proportion on the normalcy. In addition, the solution is short of the fiscal and tax equation among its EU members. Then, the 2 trillion would be spent in vain if the present higher living standard does not meet its affordability level, then, there is no demand to consume. It is still no growth if the durables or oil do not go down enough to provide the cash flow that will change the marginal affordability level and ready to consume.

    The bank or central bank may free of the old debts with the fresh new debts like the 2 trillion with longer term bonds with low interest, however, the low rate will halt lending to commercial based on the non-profitable, eventually, it will die or go bankrupt itself unless banking cut its own size like BOA or JPM. Such condition will turn into another tourniquet to the commercial needs if the bonds are not restructured by 2013 with the short-term basis. Depression will become inevitable even the BRICS can help to restructure the loans.

    Inflation and deflation is much as virus in fever and cold to one body as it is to an economy; it is understandable that disease works with one’s body to create its anti-biotic to fight diseases. Now, what our economist is facing the anemic economy with too much of sterilization with sub-prime and long-term interest rate that the body or the economy will not respond till the inflation or deflation can take its effects to make the economy change.

    In order to face reality, EU and US must settle on the coming depression, deflation helps in cutting the cost of living in a down turn spiral till the private industries can use human capitals in a lower valuation in wages. If the affordability allows more consumption; then, production will rise. Eventually, growth comes only after there is demand of it.

    If there is no systematic cut the valuation of the present, and the lowest interest of today only make the financial industry suffers. Let the nature take its course to adjust. Any attitude like no on my watch can only make it-- Japanification.

    If the economy is immune to inflation or deflation, then, valuation on price is not valid. I was not surprise if gold can fall 6% in a day; and how about you, Soros? What is you gold standard of monetization if immunization stands?
    Anything else is just excuses, isn’t it?

    May the Buddha bless you?

  3. Commentedares lui

    In Eurozone, the intergration of labour market is not done enough as the capital market. With the labour market mobility, workers in Greece,for example, are encourage to work in other EU countries. As a result, first, it lowers the unemployment rate in EU. Secondly, the tax money repatriate back home reduce the budget deficit. Thirdly, it helps other countries to achieve higher growth without boosting the inflation. The workforce mobility is one of the main reason why US can use single currency among 50 states.

  4. CommentedZsolt Hermann

    There is no financial or economical solution for the Eurozone, or for the European Union.
    It is like we keep trying different coating of paint on an otherwise rotten building, thinking that the external coating can keep the building together.
    Any solution has to start from the foundations.
    And the foundation is total in depth integration for any kind of union.
    Thus we need to completely rebuild the Eurozone and the European Union in a supra-national democratic fashion.
    A new union has to take into consideration all the strength and weaknesses of all participants and create a system where all those differences are balanced out.
    Only when a system has a common goal, attractive to all participants without coercion and trickery, can provide all sides with the necessary drive to maintain a mutual responsibility and keep up their side of the work and commitment.
    The present foundation and structure of the European experiment is very far from this ideal picture, the question is how much crisis, public suffering, demonstrations, even uprisings we need to go through until we start considering the natural laws governing integral, united systems, and start applying them ourselves.

      CommentedDaniel Gomes

      Or perhaps we should just scrap the ECB (aka European Bundesbank).

      Without it setting policies always favorable to countries like German by euro-socializing German banks losses stemming from their irresponsible over leveraging and risk assessment both int the property bubble and in the sovereign debt crisis thus cutting the link between risk and reward and allowing them to offload Peripheral countries bonds sending their interest rates into an upwards spiral thus allowing German banks to reap up the profit for them to reinvest in German bonds while sending the peripheral countries into the bond market abyss.. then, and only perhaps then, we could have a Europe that works!

      Why should ECB (all Europe) foot the bill for German banks losses helping them to further bury Greece while at the same time Germany prevents the ECB from being lender of last resort to countries?

      Have you ever thought that if the ECB let the over leveraged German banks collapse in 2008, as always the healthier banks would sooner or later prosper (in this case southern European banks - oh the irony), then they wouldn't be able to send the periphery bond markets into spiral when they started offloading peripheral bonds like there's no tomorrow?

      This is not fiction, there are several reports on how in 2008 and 2009 small healthy banks were prospering from the credit crunch in the bug banks!

      So spare us the hypocrisy!

      German has received a lot more of cheap money from the ECB to prevent its collapse than it ever lent at loan shark rates to periphery countries!

      German financial discipline in the past 20 years is a myth debunked time and time again!


      Ignorant arrogant propaganda is still propaganda!
      Facts are facts, please check them!

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