Missing Growth Multipliers

PRINCETON – In April 2010, when the global economy was beginning to recover from the shock of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook predicted that global GDP growth would exceed 4% in 2010, with a steady annual growth rate of 4.5% maintained through 2015. But the forecast proved to be far too optimistic.

In fact, global growth has decelerated. In its most recent WEO, the IMF forecasts global GDP to grow by only 3.3% in 2012, and by 3.6% in 2013. Moreover, the downgrading of growth prospects is remarkably widespread.