The Magic of the Market
欧元区是否能挺过经济复苏这一关？
Martin Feldstein
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剑桥——
欧元区预期将在2010年迎来的经济复苏，可能会伴随有新的紧张状况。事实上，在极端情况下，某些国家甚至会发现自己正在考虑这样一个问题：是否应从这种单一货币体系中一走了之？
尽管欧元简化了贸易，但它却给货币政策带来了巨大的问题。甚至早在欧元问世之前，（包括本人在内的）一部分经济学家就曾提出过这样的质疑：对于这种各成员国状况有着千差万别的群体而言，单一货币是否值得追求。单一货币意味着单一货币政策与单一利率，即便当欧洲经济与货币联盟各成员国之间的经济状况有着巨大差别（尤其是当遭遇经济周期）之时，政策仍将一视同仁。
单一货币也意味着本币对外币的相同汇率，对于欧元区之内的任何一个国家而言，这种汇率机制也阻止了市场对长期贸易逆差作出自然反应。如果逆差国有自己的货币，则该货币的汇率将会下跌，这将有利于出口、并抑制进口；但若该国没有自己的货币，那么它应对长期贸易逆差的唯一方法便是降低实际工资、或提升相对生产力。
目前，欧洲央行正在执行相当宽松的货币政策；但随着欧元区整体经济回暖，该行将开始降低流动性、提高短期利率，这些措施对于某些国家来说更加合适，但对于其他国家则并非如此；那些经济依旧相对疲软的国家反对收紧的货币政策。
德国与西班牙两国经济状况的对比便很能说明问题。德国目前的失业率约为8%，而西班牙的失业率则高出一倍还不止——约为19%。此外，德国在自去年八月以来的十二个月内、创纪录地实现了1750亿美元的贸易顺差，而西班牙则在过去十二个月内出现了840亿美元的逆差。
如果西班牙和德国还分别以比塞塔和德国马克作为货币的话，那么贸易收支方面的差别将导致马克升值、而比塞塔贬值。币值较低的比塞塔将刺激市场对西班牙出口商品的需求、并减少西班牙本国的进口，这将推动该国内需、拉动就业。
由于眼下欧洲央行设定的利率低于1%，因此现行的货币政策与西班牙银行在可以自己定夺利率的情况下所将会作出的选择之间，并无多大差别。但当欧元区开始走向复苏之际，欧洲央行或许会在西班牙能适应更高利率之前，便将利率上调；而这将会使西班牙的失业状况雪上加霜。西班牙以及欧元区其他高失业国家可能会反对这一政策，但最终却仍将面对日益从紧的货币政策；因为欧洲央行鉴于欧元区的整体经济情况，认为已有调高利率的必要。
西班牙并非是唯一一个想要退出欧洲经济与货币联盟的国家；希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、甚至连意大利都是如此，人们常常认为若上述几国能实施独立的货币政策、并允许其货币的汇率被调整至一个更具竞争力的水平，则这些国家将有可能从中受益。
德国所发行的欧元债券与其他一些国家的欧元债券之间愈加扩大的利率差，便显示出了全球债券市场正在认真看待这一风险。例如，目前德国政府十年期欧元债券的收益率为3.33%，而希腊欧元债券的相应收益率却达到4.7%，爱尔兰则更是高达4.77%。这些不同的收益率反映出市场对违约以及与退出欧元区相关的有效贬值风险的认识。
当然，退出欧洲经济与货币联盟涉及到技术与政治两个层面的问题。比方说，希望以“新法郎”（这并不表示法国或比利时将有可能抛弃欧元）来替代欧元的政府，得要把当初其货币被换为欧元的整个过程反过来做一遍。不过一回生二回熟，这次反向操作的难度将会比上次小一些。
新货币的汇率应当如何设定呢？显而易见的选择将是以1：1的比例、用“新法郎”替换欧元，之后任由全球货币市场对新的货币重新定价。一个初始贸易逆差巨大的国家将会看到本币相对于欧元贬值，比方说变为了1.2“新法郎”兑换1欧元，这将使得该国产品比其他欧元区国家的产品便宜20%，并导致其进口商品更加昂贵。如果此举导致退出国的物价水平出现上涨的话，那么名义汇率应当进一步降低，已达到同样的实际调整效果。
由于退出国的国民个人仍可继续持有欧元，因此退出欧洲经济与货币联盟并不会导致现有财富的损失。但是走上这条道路的国家必须考虑一个更为重大的经济后果：在全球资本市场看来，一个失业率高的国家将有可能选择实行通货膨胀或货币贬值政策，这种预期将使国际投资者在退出国面前攥紧荷包，并导致该国国债利率大幅走高。
此举还会造成政治问题。退出欧洲经济与货币联盟的国家会不会在欧洲经济和财政部长委员会中的地位也低人一等呢？在欧洲就外交与防务政策进行讨论时，它的声音会不会因此变小呢？在极端情况下，该国会不会被彻底逐出欧盟、并因此丧失其贸易优势呢？
这些经济与政治风险或许足以阻止欧洲经济与货币联盟的现有成员国作出退盟决定。不过继续留在欧元区的决定，可能会使其中部分国家付出惨重的代价。在一定情况下，这种无法在欧洲经济与货币联盟框架内解决国内经济问题的状况，可能会导致一个或多个国家得出这样的结论：代价太高，已忍无可忍。
马丁·费尔德斯坦系哈佛大学经济学教授，曾任里根总统时期的经济顾问委员会主席，美国国家经济研究局主席。
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
www.project-syndicate.org
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MM4765075 07:37 23 Dec 09
Being a nice and articulated piece of work it is fair to focus these facts under a different perspective. First of all in any moment of crisis the EU fragilities will shine, as they never did. Fears of split ups from the Euro are a possibility? They are very possible but my bet is they are unlikely to happen. Why?
1. As you remember in the nineties there was the issue of a Europe at different speeds and the thought that maybe the more advanced countries should go ahead and forge a real union and the less advanced should wait to qualify. For political reasons this idea was abandoned, with a caveat although. The less advanced countries would suffer from their inadequacies to cope with the more advanced countries. But for political reasons countries like Spain didn’t want to loose face and lets face it…what politician would be brave enough to tell to his people that they weren’t good enough to qualify for the front runners club?
2. Therefore the mechanisms natural to the EU (compromises and arrangements) were set. They could and never would make a country like Spain become a Germany in the span of 2 or 3 years. But the precedent set is another: the member states cannot run to devaluation, fiscal irresponsibility or financial surrealism as a backup for their structural problems. They have to work seriously to increase productivity, competitiveness, fiscal responsibility and build a serious financial reliability. After all this is the price to join the exclusive club of the Euro. Spain, Portugal and Greece thought the Euro as a bulletproof area. So accumulating debt was not a problem anymore, as the big countries (i.e. Germany) would somehow cover their excesses.
3. So is the solution for Greece, Spain and other bad members to quit the Euro? If they would do so that would put their new reborn currencies on agony. No one would dare to touch those currencies. And the new re powered central banks would have to use what is left of their gold reserves and currency reserves to keep their currencies alive. So quitting the Euro would be even worse. There is only one possible way: the same the EU commission has asked for years: reforms, discipline and ambition. The boom of the nineties gave the false illusion that everything was fine, but this crisis is proving that sound finances and a strong and innovative manufacturing fabric can make a country thrive in hard times.
4. So why quit the Euro when the problem is not even there? The problem of Spain is not the Euro. The problem of Spain is the economic model. There was no economic model, there was an assumption that the funds of the EU and tourism would be enough. The shift of Europe towards in central and eastern region combined with the financial crisis showed the flaws of this system. Quitting the Euro will aggravate but not heal the economy.
rienhuizer 10:45 16 Feb 10
Indeed. We will soon find out. Fortunately, Greece is a country the the EU needs less than Greece needs the EU.
JYelapi 12:56 01 Dec 09
fascinating for sure; it will be interesting to see how this plays out. The Spanish government will have to do someting drastic, especially with a 20% unemployment rate. Spanish citizens may very well lose their penchant for the EU if their government is constrained because of EZ policies. Maybe it will be the EU that will make concessions with regard to economic policies for member countries, perhaps easing on maximum debt levels/ratios allowed by its members. In either case, it certainly will be another existential challenge for the Euro Zone/EU.