Friday, October 31, 2014
6

新兴市场的欧洲问题

巴黎——从香港到圣保罗,以及中间的所有地区,所有大投资商都在谈论一个词:希腊。希腊人会不会留在欧元区?如果他们选择退出,欧盟和全球经济将向何处去?

直到不久前,欧洲还是主要新兴经济体证实自身骄人成就的一面镜子。他们可以用自身的高增长与欧洲的高债务尽情的对比。他们可以对比自身的“积极活力”和主宰欧洲人思想的悲观情绪。他们洋洋得意地建议欧洲努力工作、节约开支,因为合情合理的骄傲中掺杂着可以理解的清算历史欠账、借以减轻他们曾经接受殖民的痛苦和屈辱的情绪。

但今天,新兴国家越来越忧虑欧洲过度疲软对其各自经济的严重威胁,他们的这种担忧不无道理,因为欧洲仍然领导着世界贸易。此外,鉴于现有制度的合法性和延续快速经济增长之间的紧密关系,欧洲经济的萎靡不振甚至威胁到上述很多国家、特别是中国的政治稳定。

如果欧洲危机导致中国的全年GDP增长低于7%、印度低于5%、巴西低于3%,这些新兴国家最弱势的民众将会受到最沉重的打击。在这些国家的成功中曾经发挥重要作用的“希望文化”在很大程度上以物质成功为基础,“希望文化”从来未曾真正属于这些弱势民众。

鉴于这种情况,欧洲可能突然成为新兴国家一面完全不同的镜子,暴露出他们自身存在的结构性缺陷,甚至导致这些缺陷进一步加剧。正如欧洲必须不惜一切代价挽救希腊经济或西班牙银行系统,新兴国家也出于同样原因必须尽一切可能为挽救欧洲经济出力。欧洲的教训告诉我们,等待时间越长,成本越高——而成功的机会越低。

然而不幸的是,由同样拒绝全球责任的国家联合组成的团体不太可能这样思考问题。事实上,多数新兴市场国家面对为欧洲提供金融援助的提议望而生畏有以下几种原因。

首先,目前还不存在新兴国家集团这样的组织。即没有共同的愿景或共同的政治理想(类似于西方的民主制度)将他们团结在一起。无论共同价值观有多少矛盾或局限性,忽视其重要性都将犯下幼稚的错误。即使奥巴马像法国的尼古拉斯·萨科齐那样只担任一届总统,欧洲和美国仍将继续是盟友。

其次,新兴国家与其说是欧洲的伙伴还不如说是对手。对中国的怀疑是他们唯一的共同之处。鉴于这种情况,极难想象他们能制定统一的长期战略。

正如一位著名的中国国际关系专家所说,中国人可能认为他们思考问题比美国更“长远”,而美国思考问题更“广泛”,欧洲则更“深入”。但是当面对欧洲的金融危机时,即使中国2011年对欧洲的投资达到之前的三倍,但短期的战术考量似乎是决定中国所作所为的唯一因素。以低廉的价格购买一半的比雷埃夫斯港与其说是从长远角度投资希腊的经济和金融,还不如说是趁火打劫占取便宜。但实际情况是否真的如此?

其三,新兴国家的短期机会主义是基于所谓的双重不信任:其中当然有不信任欧洲,但荒谬的是同样有不信任他们自己。也就是说,他们不相信自己能完成拯救欧洲这个全球经济病夫的任务。

可以肯定,这与亚洲散发的必胜信念尤其背道而驰。新加坡权威外交政策思想家马凯硕不久前刚在我院在维也纳组织的一次会议上宣布下世纪将是属于亚洲的世纪。但可以感觉到新兴国家精英阶层内心隐藏着挥之不去的疑问,而这些在欧洲危机中只能是进一步加剧而已。这种不安全感表现在诸多方面:当很多人,甚至是大多数人会选择让子女到国外接受教育的情况下,他们却忙于积累流动性财富来对抗国内外不确定局势。

无可否认,欧洲甚至是西方病夫可能有着很强的恢复能力,而这来源于其民主和法治的天然防御力量。这也是为什么当前的欧洲危机可能被证明是对新兴国家的一次关键的考验,他们在经济活力上胜于欧洲,但在政治上却远比欧洲更加脆弱。

翻译:Xu Binbin

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  1. CommentedMoctar Aboubacar

    One question not posed here is the question of where we are going. Become partners with Europe, assess risks within Europe as threats to Emerging countries... but to what end? The current crisis is not business as usual, and the 'normal' toolkit does not seem to be the correct answer. So saying emerging markets are "denying global responsibility", or proning increased partnership with Europe means next to nothing as long as the author has not made clear the normative framework within which he is working.

  2. CommentedRodrigo Braz

    I believe that the common feeling, at least here in Brazil, is that it is a little ridiculous to ask poor countries, Brazil still has many families living in slums or in the arid northeast, to bail out rich economies.

    I mean, sure the crisis is bad, but we literally have people starving here. So to ask us to pay up so that greeks can retain their 14 salaries a year is seen as unrealistic.

  3. CommentedZsolt Hermann

    Unfortunately this article is full of the misunderstandings that has led to the crisis.
    First of all the "mirror" the "emerging market" countries should see in Europe is like a little child who looks into the mirror and sees himself as an 80 year old old man full of diseases, wrinkles, suffering, hardly alive close to death.
    What the child should understand from that picture that as long as he tries to live the same life, follow the same pattern he will end up the same weak, suffering, unhappy old man that he sees in the mirror today.
    There is no Greek problem, there is no European problem. We have system crisis. Whatever method humanity has applied so far through our history, based on our self centered, greedy, exploitative nature, especially in the last 100 years has lead us into this mess, the dead end.
    We simply cannot escape this system failure with the same mentality, methodology we entered it. If any country want to learn anything from Europe or the US, or any other developed nation is that whatever they did, whatever they are still doing is not right and we have to go the opposite direction. Instead of living inside ourselves, devouring everything only for our own pleasures, we have to "step out" and start sharing and making connections.
    Regarding "rivals" appearing later in the article, today there are no rivals, only in our minds following old polarized patterns. In a global integral world, where we are all interconnected in the same network there are only partners, like cells, organs in a single body. Or as a leading economist phrased it we are all on the same boat, that boat is sinking.
    If we want to keep the boat floating, whether we like it or not we have to work together, above all our differences, rejections, cultural characteristics, hatred, unless the boat is robust and is sailing safely we are all doomed.

  4. CommentedJ. C.

    I think the first and biggest mistake of this guy is to treat "Emerging Markets" as whole, from then on he lost my attention.... As if Brazil was the same than China or Venezuela or Haití... shows a great ignorance and xenofobia...

  5. CommentedFrank O'Callaghan

    It is important to see and state the root causes of the current 'crisis'. The world is more productive and wealthy than it has been in all of history. But there is a problem of distribution of wealth, power, work and resources. Inequality is the threat.

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