The Risk Factor
Egypt’s Unfinished Revolution Will Succeed
Mohamed A. El-Erian
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NEWPORT BEACH – A year ago, Egyptians of all ages and religions took to the streets and, in just 18 days of relatively peaceful protests, removed a regime that had ruled over them with an iron fist for 30 years. Empowered by an impressive yet leaderless movement – largely of young people – the country’s citizens overcame decades of fear to reclaim a voice in their future.
While much has been achieved since those euphoric times, Egypt’s revolution today is, unfortunately, incomplete and imperfect – so much so that some now doubt whether it will fully succeed. I believe that the doubters will be proven wrong.
Over the last year, Egyptians have voted in their first free and fair parliamentary elections. They have discovered and used freedom of expression in a way that, not so long ago, would have been deemed unthinkable. Participation in civic activities is on the rise. And Egyptians are learning a lot about who they are as a society, and what they can achieve collectively.
For the first time in decades, millions of Egyptians now feel that they “own” their country, and that they are directly responsible for its well-being, and for that of future generations. This is a priceless accomplishment for a country that had underachieved on so many fronts for so many years, in the process losing its self-confidence, failing to meet its considerable economic and social potential, and falling in international development rankings.
But greater ownership does not translate into full contentment. Dissatisfaction today is high and rising, and understandably so. Institutions are failing to adapt quickly enough. The legal system lacks sufficient legitimacy and agility. Everyday security, while improving, is still far from adequate.
Not surprisingly, the economy is struggling, and it will likely get worse in the months ahead. Growth is sluggish, amplifying alarmingly high youth unemployment. Shortages of some goods have started to appear, and the country is turning to the International Monetary Fund and other creditors for emergency financing.
So it is no less surprising that Egyptians now feel that, after an exhilarating start, their revolution has become stuck in a muddled purgatory. Moreover, many now believe that the future is as uncertain as ever, which is naturally fueling frustration with anyone deemed responsible for the lack of forward movement. Indeed, with increasing domestic tensions diverting energy from forward-looking initiatives, some Egyptians are even beginning to wonder whether it would not have been better to stick with the prior system.
What Egyptians are experiencing today is not new; it is familiar to many countries that have gone through a fundamental systemic change. After all, revolutions go far beyond popular uprisings and the overthrow of old regimes. They are dynamic processes that must navigate a number of critical pivot points, including, most importantly, the move from dismantling the past to establishing the basis for a better future.
Some contend that Egypt will not be able to undertake this shift. But, while I acknowledge their arguments, I think that they misunderstand what is fundamentally at play in the country today.
Doubters note that what remains of Egypt’s internal and external institutional anchors serve to retard the revolutionary process rather than to refine and accelerate it. They believe that the country’s growing economic malaise will strengthen the argument for sticking with what Egyptians know, rather than opting for a more uncertain future. Finally, they point to the wait-and-see attitude of Egypt’s friends and allies.
These are all valid and important considerations, but they are not overwhelming. Rather, they are headwinds that can and will be overcome, for they fail to capture a reality that is evident from the sentiments of a broad cross-section of society. Egyptians will not settle for an incomplete revolution – not now, and especially not after all of the sacrifices that have been made.
Completing their revolution will be not an easy, quick, or smooth process, but it will happen. Egyptians’ collective determination will ensure that, in the revolution’s second year, the country will get a new constitution, hold proper presidential elections, and benefit from a functioning and representative parliament. Having completed the transition, the armed forces will return to their barracks and to safeguarding the country from foreign threats.
Any attempt to divert this legitimate process will be met by millions of Egyptians taking to the streets in protest. Make no mistake: Egyptians are committed to completing their impressive revolution, and they will.
Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and author of When Markets Collide.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2012.
www.project-syndicate.org
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bernardpalmer 01:37 24 Jan 12
Go Mohamed go!!
As the most modern Egyptian out there maybe you should try to lead your country into prosperity. When you've done that then go back and try and fix America.
gamesmith94134 09:08 25 Jan 12
Gamesmith94134: Egypt’s Unfinished Revolution Will Succeed
“The various groups are all competing to claim ownership of the revolution, says our correspondent, from the youth movement which began the protests a year ago to the Muslim Brotherhood, which now dominates parliament, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf), which took power last February after Mr Mubarak stepped down.” Said Reuter.
After the first election, many discontented with the 70% occupants are Islamic and the rest is mixed. Now, there are more uncertainty of the SCAF to return its power to civilians and the restoration of the economic under the pressure to grow. How is the capacity in oil after the sanction of the Iranian oil and financial? We all look into Egypt how the wind will blow?
Egyptians are learning a lot about who they are as a society, and what they can achieve collectively. Economic assistance is needed to anchor itself to democracy and freedom to tune in; and we can buy Egyptian Bonds too. I would not think Egypt can convert into another Turkey; and I would trust the generosity of its Egyptians to act bravely to succeed too.
Happy Anniversary to the Revolution!
May the Buddha bless you?
i8emallup 02:33 03 Feb 12
Like the Egyptian situation, the organized effort to change the structure of power within the global banking plutocracy seems to have hit a pause. The occupy movement uttered a call to awareness of the the vile concentration of power of the economic/political structure. The movement is not as visible as it was this past summer, but the efforts of the participants continue.
More and more people are growing disgusted at some of the crimes and other events of recent past. Who knows when this revolution will again emerge as a presence?
One thing is sure, there has been no pause to the corruption and mismanagement that caused the current economic stress. Eventually the crisis will come to a head, and we'll wake up.
gamesmith94134 06:59 03 Feb 12
Gamesmsith94134: Iraq’s Politics, Iraq’s Problem
In preparation for the 2010 elections, the Iraqiyya (the Iraqi National Movement) is described as a national party that invites people of all orientations to participate. That vision has great appeal for US and foreigners who want to see a less sectarian-based form of politics in Iraq.
I could have sensed the significance of our Iraqi war removing Saddam while most Iraqis suffered, and most Iraqis tended to build its government based on democracy and freedom from suppression. I think the present Iraqiyya could have made a bad choice in drawing its line between Sunni and Shiite that democracy may not be best of it represents for Iraqis. It chilled my heart with many questions like, what about Kurds and Christians? For much doubts on the status after US troops left and bombs being casted in Iraq these days; it reminded me of Arafat after he sided with the French and talked with Israel and US, Hezbollah and Hamas were at his back; but they did not left him. He is a smart one with a less sectarian-based form of politics. Well it was Fatah kept Palestine alive, and Palestine entered UN to-day.
Through another occasion after US and the nationalist government in Vietnam, Nationalist lost itself to its communists in the north, because US backed nationalists often called puppeteer government instead of transitory one. But, the Communist used the Nationalists to run its government when they are in power. They know democratic society more than Nationalists, and they won. To-day, US and Vietnam are friends again.
It was not a good sign of a democratic government purported with only lesser sectarian-based form of politics that used suppression for freedom. Now, I am really questioning on if “Iraqiyya’s leaders would be well advised to demonstrate more competence in governance rather than inflaming tensions, as Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni hardliner, has been fond of doing by pronouncing Maliki another Saddam. (Shias, even those who dislike Maliki, do not appreciate hearing that from a Sunni.)” Perhaps, Mr. Maliki would learn well of Iraq’s politics that would solve Iraq’s problem and set Iraqis free of suppression and democracy for all Iraqis.
There was a joke why some complains how incompetent Arafat was; it was because Arafat always bought to dinner with his table cloth, an interpreter, a hammer and a nutcracker. By the time dinner was served, Arafat gave his streak to his interpreter after he had beaten it to dead with his hammer and nutcracker. The waiter was shocked. He came and asked him if he wanted lobster or fish instead. Soon, everyone is offered a bib, a cracker and garlic butter; again, Arafat has his lobster creaked with his hammer and nutcracker over the table cloth he brought with. Later, he asked his interpreter of the lobster; and his interpreter said, “It was a Maine lobster.” Then, he put the tablecloth on his head and said, “I must be diplomatic to American.” Everybody laughed.
No offense, Abbas.
May the Buddha bless you?
diagoge 06:47 23 Jan 12
Parlamentswahlen in Ägypten: historische Chance der Muslimbruderschaft
Das offizielle Wahlergebnis der Parlamentswahlen in Ägypten liegt vor. Die Islamisten haben haushoch gewonnen. Sind sie fähig, die gegenwärtige politische Situation realistisch einzuschätzen und verantwortungsbewusst eine positive Entwicklung für das ganze Land voranzubringen?
Ich darf dazu auf den Artikel auf meinem Blog verweisen: http://bit.ly/Chance_der_MB