Net World
Peeling, Meeting, and Shopping
Esther Dyson
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NEW YORK – In mid-December, while trying to understand what was happening in Russia, I checked Twitter and found a tweet that somehow signified everything. It was from a young woman, and it said, in Russian: “Gotta sleep! Tomorrow I go to [face] peeling, then to meeting, and then to shopping.” All three words – peeling, meeting, and shopping – were in fact the English words, rendered in Cyrillic.
What this reveals is that the Russian protests – called “mitings” – are no longer just for old people, radical extremists, or jobless, unskilled, feral youth. They are for sociable people who have time and money not just for politics, but also for shopping and, yes, even cosmetic procedures.
That is a big change from just a few years ago. My Russian friends – many of them computer programmers, but also some shoppers and business executives – routinely dismissed politics as the province of the naive or the corrupt. Many of the older ones chose careers in science (and then software), because it was the only kind of desk job you could get where politics mostly did not matter (and where Jews were allowed). These people avoided politics on principle, but also because they were afraid of losing their state jobs, or of disappearing altogether.
The younger ones were not afraid; they were simply not interested in a spectator sport that seemed irrelevant to their lives. Of course, no one could affect the outcome of a football match, either, but at least it was fun to watch – and the rules were clear. In Russian politics, as the old joke has it, the outcome is fixed in advance, but the rules are unpredictable.
So, what changed? Everyone points to Facebook and its Russian analogue, V kontakte. And they do matter. But the point is not just organizing a “miting.” Protests have been organized before – in 1917, for example. The exciting difference is in people’s minds, not just in their tools.
I once wrote that “every time a user gets information, it reinforces a little part of the brain that says: ‘It’s good to know things. It’s my right to have information, whether it’s about train schedules, movie stars, or the activities of the politicians who make decisions that affect my life.’”
In the same way, every time someone posts on Facebook, they feel empowered to speak as well as to read. One of the slogans of the protests is, “We are not cattle.” On Facebook, people are not cattle; they can comment and like things, and their votes are counted.
Compare that to the old days, when the state ran everything. It even picked the public’s heroes: not just people like cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin, the first human in outer space, but wholly invented characters and achievements, like Pavlik Morozov, the child/martyr who allegedly denounced his traitorous father and was murdered by his family in 1932, and Alexei Stakhanov, who supposedly fulfilled fourteen times his production targets. Actors succeeded or failed not on the basis of popularity, but on the state’s direction; imagine a world with only one movie studio deciding which stars to promote.
Now, the kids are not afraid and they pick their own heroes. Yes, they have seen oil baron Mikhail Khodorkovsky imprisoned on questionable charges, and inconvenient journalists beaten or killed. But they have also seen their friends posting on Facebook with impunity, and can see their own comments there. They cannot imagine disappearing without a trace, as many of their ancestors did under the old regime, when it was dangerous even to mention those who were gone.
Indeed, they are also not worried about losing their jobs. By the standards of the protesters in the Middle East, for example, they are well off. Russia does not have the same demographic crisis – a large cohort of unemployed youth – that has catalyzed change in the Arab world. (Indeed, its demographic problem is just the opposite: not enough young people.) Today’s Russian crisis is not economic, but political.
But what does this all mean? How much more will things change, and how persistent will the changes be?
It is fairly clear that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected to the presidency in March; the votes will be counted properly, even though some may argue that the slate of candidates is unduly restricted. What is not clear is what will happen after that.
Today’s protesters do not want a traditional revolution. They are mostly educated enough about the past to fear blood in the streets. They want Putin gone, not punished (mostly); they realize that it is the system that produced Putin, who then reinforced the system. They want to reverse that cycle, putting an end to corruption, official impunity, and being treated like cattle.
Unfortunately, however, there is no obvious alternative to Putin. In the most benign scenario, Putin himself would evolve. After all, Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet president, managed to change the system that produced him (though perhaps he did not change it enough).
If Putin and his team were to start changing the system – genuinely fighting corruption, and perhaps releasing Khodorkovsky – the response would be positive. But that may be as much of a dream as Stakhanov’s legendary feats.
Esther Dyson, CEO of EDventure Holdings, is an active investor in a variety of start-ups around the world. Her interests include information technology, health care, private aviation, and space travel.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2012.
www.project-syndicate.org
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yalensis 11:44 27 Jan 12
Oh lordy lordy, Esther! You touched on every single Russophobic stereotype: Pavlik Morozov, Stakhanov, Khodorkovsky, etc etc. Even threw in a little jibe about Jews not being able to get jobs, except in software development (implying that Russia is anti-Semitic country). The only trope you missed was the Tatar Yoke. Next time please try to do a better job, Esther. The silly anti-Russian propaganda just doesn't cut it if you don't bash Tatars.
mikerobe 06:09 28 Jan 12
This is supposed to be an analysis of the Russian street protests... ?!!!
Because there are so few women's voices on PS I hesitate to criticize. But, please... there are some inetelligent and incisive woman critics out there. Find one. This is drivel.
Why stop at the Russian stereotypes Yelensis so clearly identifies? All the activist stereotypes are there in the second paragraph: "old people, radical extremists, or jobless, unskilled, feral youth." Hey, at least it's worth a good belly laugh! Of course, Dyson immediately contrasts all of these types with "sociable people." Oh yes, those not old, with jobs and skills, employed, well dressed, sitting in a cubicle and not feral. LMAO (as the sociable young ones like to text).
I guess this stream of consciousness stereotyping is a gift of Facebook thinking where, of course, we are not cattle but unique and special little snowflakes.
Ay, yi, yi, what garbage.
mikerobe (an old, sociable, radical, feral extremist)
Zsolt 10:18 26 Jan 12
We can project the Russian picture to other countries as well even to the western democracies.
Maybe in the western countries the situation is not as obvious as in Russia where the leading politicians can play with the political system in a way that they can secure long term dominion while in western democracies it is more difficult, but in our western countries the politicians serve rather as puppets in the hand of a small minority that using the politicians can adjust laws and regulations in their favour ensuring them getting wealthier and everybody else getting poorer dominating in the background.
2011 was a breakthrough year from two aspects both with the help of the Internet.
First of all due the relaively free information flow everything and everybody is becoming more transparent, it is much more difficult to hide things today.
As a result the huge inequalities, the constant background work of different lobbies and interest groups, the helplessness of financial and political leaders in the face of the deepening crisis has become much more obvious than ever.
On the other hand the Internet as the article suggest enpowered the public, causing a huge public awakening leading to the Middle East revolutions, world wide public demonstrations and this process really only starting.
We have two directions from here: if we are not wise, and especially the leading social circles do not pay attention to the developments we could arrive to violent and totally unpredictable scenarios even within this year.
If the separate parts of society take the signs seriously and the free information change continues, and the leading circles are open to honest, transparent round table like negotiations with the public, we could start building new social and economical structures which are more suited to the interconnected and mutual global world than our self destructing present structures.