Liberating NASA
Esther Dyson
NEW YORK – Let me disclose my biases up front: I did not dream of going into space as a child. I took it for granted. My father was a (genuine) rocket scientist, and I figured that just as airplanes had become commonplace over the course of his life, space travel would become commonplace over the course of mine.
People first landed on the Moon while I was a teenager, and I turned to other pursuits – journalism, the Internet, startup companies. But then, decades later, I woke up and discovered that space travel was still reserved for a small corps of astronauts and cosmonauts, and a tiny group of wealthy space tourists – six so far. The space business was the preserve of a few governments, plus a number of large cost-plus contractors who lived in symbiosis with their government customers.
Then there was Space Adventures, the private company that arranges the space tourist trips with Roskosmos, the Russian Federal Space Agency, for upwards of $35 million a flight. I invested in Space Adventures, and also in XCOR Aerospace, a rocket maker. As with the Internet, I could see the glimmer of the energy that results when commercial startups invade a market dominated by large, established organizations. I wanted to know more about space travel (not about startups!) and figured that six months of space training with Roskosmos, organized by Space Adventures, was the best way to get totally immersed.
After I returned, I had the opportunity to join the NASA Advisory Council, as chairman of its Technology and Innovation Committee. The Council has recently been shaken up, with its membership reduced from 50 to 10 and each member's role clarified. However, the Council's actual power is limited: NASA is told what to do – and is financed to to do it – by the United States Congress. We can only advise on what Congress decrees and funds.
This shakeup reflects a shakeup at NASA itself, under new Administrator Charlie Bolden, appointed by President Barack Obama. And it's a huge opportunity for NASA as well as for space exploration and science. Obama has proposed a new budget for NASA that directs it to focus on longer-term goals, and adds another $6 billion over the next five years (at a time when almost every other agency faces budget cuts).
Over the past four decades, NASA has matured, which has made it so process-ridden and cautious – so responsible – that it has lost much of its energy and innovativeness. With almost every US election cycle, it endured funding cuts, re-orientations, and the like.
Then NASA had two large and image-damaging space-shuttle accidents – the Challenger disaster of 1986, followed by the disintegration of the Columbia over Texas in 2003. These catastrophes stripped NASA of its appetite for risk. The astronauts themselves were eager to return to space, but the bureaucrats were unwilling to send them.
This is a persistent challenge for government agencies: they get hammered whenever something goes wrong. People are accustomed to the risks of driving cars or taking planes. But governments are not supposed to kill people.
I'm not suggesting that private companies should be allowed to kill people, but they can take risks (with people who understand the risks they are taking), which governments cannot. Of course, they are also incentivized not to take risks; any start-up space company that carelessly kills someone will probably also kill itself. But the industry will survive and prosper.
So, what does the new NASA budget do? And how is it relevant to other industries and other governments?
The new budget does two things. First, it acknowledges that the so-called Constellation project, which was focused on returning to the Moon, is behind schedule, over budget, and unambitious. So the budget cancels Constellation – though many of the specific projects and employees that comprised it will live on. The new budget will apply the freed-up funds and resources towards a still-to-be-defined program aimed at going beyond the Moon to asteroids, so-called “near-Earth objects,” and, eventually, Mars.
Obama did not, however, define the new goals tightly, leaving that up to NASA – a sensible and modest approach, but unfortunately a political mistake. It is never a good idea to replace something with vagueness. Politicians and lobbyists who care only about this year's jobs and next year's votes have jumped all over this lack of a plan.
Their scorn has also extended to the second part of the budget, a program that normally they would have liked: bringing back to the US jobs that currently go to Russians. For the budget proposes contracting with American startups to send astronauts and cargo to low-Earth orbit – mostly to the International Space Station. For the next few years, NASA will be buying those services from RosKosmos and sending astronauts up in Russian Soyuzes. But after that, under the new budget, they will be buying from the likes of start-ups SpaceX and Orbital Sciences (and eventuallly, I hope, XCOR).
Government should focus on long-term, risky research (where the risk is to projects, not to people), and the private sector should focus on delivering services that are already well understood and ready to be handled in a routine way. The irony of American politics right now is that normally pro-business Republicans are those most hostile to NASA’s new budget – which espouses the values of entrepreneurship and innovativeness that Republicans claim to hold dear.
NASA itself is a typical large organization. Most of its people would welcome a more entrepreneurial environment, but they have been beaten down by years of criticism, constraints, regulations, and arbitrary budget cuts. As a system, NASA is resistant to change, but inside there are thousands of people yearning to experiment and learn from both successes and failures. They want the liberation of a grand challenge. They want to take risks with technology, not with people.
Look around you. There are lots of organizations like that, waiting to be liberated, their employees yearning to breathe free.
Esther Dyson, chairman of EDventure Holdings, is an active investor in a variety of start-ups around the world. Her interests include information technology, health care and private aviation and space travel.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2010.
www.project-syndicate.org
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ryanscole 06:50 22 May 10
6 billion is the budget for the entire commercial crew program, and definitely not for "human rating the Falcon 9"--or more accurately stated, developing the crewed version of the Dragon spacecraft. These funds are awarded as COTS incentives to spacecraft makers like they did previously with cargo. With Boeing and Lockheed, amongst others expected to be participating this time, SpaceX's share should be much smaller this time around.
This type of development has already proven to come at a huge cost and time savings compared to conventional cost plus methods. Furthermore, Constellation has proven to be far more expensive than first expected, and is no longer cost effective.
Bridwell 10:45 22 May 10
NASA, ATK, ULA, Orbital Sciences, SpaceX, Scaled Composites, XCOR... all deserve credit for significantly pushing the envelope. As Bolden recently stated before Congress, NASA employees do not just want a job. They want to make a difference. The same can be said for commercial aerospace engineers who have also devoted so much of their lives to taking the fiction out of science.
The biggest problem at the moment is that Obama, despite his many good qualities, just doesn't get manned space exploration. This was first evident in Obama's 2007 campaign promise to boost education by specifically targeting the total elimination of NASA's manned space exploration programs for 5 years, rather than financing it with a distributed tiny (0.004) budget reduction across all federal departments.
This problem has been compounded by the realities of election politics in Florida and Colorado. Like other politicians, Obama has felt compelled to make promises in Florida that he has no intention to fulfill and to make proclimations (such as his "unwavering" support for NASA) that do nothing for his credibility.
Should Congress successfully reverse his attempted demoliiton of American's Vision for Space Exploration Moon exploration program, there will remain serious concerns about the extend to which his apointees will be in a position to sabotage NASA's progress.
OnToMars 04:22 26 May 10
There are some fundamental problems with Obama's approach to human space exploration. The primary one is that you can't redirect a 10 year development program every 5 years and ever get anything that works.
The second is that you can't just ignore hard lessons that came from Challenger and Columbia accident reports and go back to re-learn the same lessons over again. There were specific recommendations made, and the Constellation program addresses those safety concerns far better than anything else on the table right now.
Third, we have had times when NASA was tasked to "just develop cutting edge technology" before and the result has always been very mediocre. Necessity is the mother of invention, and Apollo generated much more cutting edge technology than was achieved under Dan Golden's leadership as NASA director. Technology development for its own sake just doesn't work, and sandbox projects get cut one by one, as well they should. This is not a brilliant new idea.
Forth, going to an asteroid by 2025 is so far out beyond current funding and programmatic horizons that it's not effective. We can't even sustain commitment to a program like Constellation, so how can we sustain commitment to a notion with no program at all.
OnToMars 04:24 26 May 10
Going to the Moon should not be a goal in itself, but developing the means to go to the Moon, with an eye toward making the hardware compatible with going to Mars, ensures that we regain a capability that we gave up during the Nixon administration.
Commercial space development has been encourages all along. The distinction between 'commercial' and 'contracted' is whether there is enough non-government demand for a capability to justify a business case. It's the difference between having an military officer buy a commercial ticket to fly to Europe, or trying to buy an in-flight tank of fuel from the commercial market. If the US sees a need for in-flight refueling, it needs to contract the construction and purchase of a KC-130 to fly from a military base with a load of fuel. When the commercial capability to fly cargo to ISS emerges, NASA will buy it. Likewise for manned access to ISS.
In the mean time, it is a huge waste to scrap $9 billion and 5 years of development to start over with new players. Augustine had no complaints about the technical or managerial aspects of Constellation. None. The 'unsustainable trajectory' was attributed specifically to underfunding the program. Engineers are directed by politicians, but sometimes politicians need to listen to the engineers.
OnToMars 04:40 26 May 10
"Obama did not, however, define the new goals tightly, leaving that up to NASA..."
If Obama left it to NASA, the answer would probably be "build hardware capable of going to Mars, and try it out first by going to the Moon". That sounds a lot like the Constellation program. Obama is clearly not leaving it up to NASA.
Bridwell 06:09 26 May 10
OTM: Well spoken.
Armstrong is probably correct that Obama's motivation is to put his stamp on NASA by scrapping everything accomplished under the previous WH administration and then directing it to do the exact opposite, which, as originally announced on Feb 2nd, was literally to boldly go NOWHERE.


Bridwell 07:35 19 May 10
Esther:
I would like to commend you for taking the personal risk of making significant investments in FOR-PROFIT space ventures such as Space Adventures, XCOR, and Zero-G, and trust that these investments are becuase you belive in opening up space, rather than because you think that microgravity is the best place to make a quick buck.
Nevertheless, you should mention this in your article, because it can create the appearance of a conflict of interest if taxpayers pay 6 billion to human-rate and test the Falcon 9 that could significantly reduce operational costs and improve revenues for Space Adventures.
I agree with Armstong that there is much in the Obama proposal that does not deserve any consideration, although I feel that we should cautiously pursue a COTS follow-on ISS crew-launch.