The palm trees lining Managua's boulevards are painted in bright fuchsia. Large banners announce that “love is stronger than hate.” The man in the TV ads has the air of a preacher, while the refrain of his theme song chants: “A united Nicaragua, headed to the Promised Land.” One might think that it was some sort of religious campaign, or maybe the marketing of a new age product. But no, it's merely the electoral campaign of Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua's former revolutionary leader.

For the third time in a row, this onetime president who stood up to the United States during the Reagan-Bush era is the presidential candidate for the Sandinista Front. One very noticeable change is the replacement of his party's combative red and black by the more mystical fuchsia. The other main difference is that unlike the elections in 1990 and 1996 when Mr. Ortega was defeated by large margins, he has a real chance of winning the upcoming November 4th election.

As we enter the final weeks of the campaign, all polls are showing Mr. Ortega and Enrique Bolaños, the governing party's candidate, in a dead heat.

How can Mr. Ortega's resurrection be explained, when only three years ago following accusations of sexual abuse by his stepdaughter, Zoilamérica Narváez, his political career seemed to be in ruins? The undisputed opposition leader since 1990, his main merit is having kept firm control over his party during the past eleven years, while eluding any significant political renewal. But his resurgence, in reality, is due to events beyond his control.

One decade of representative democracy following the end of war in Nicaragua has brought lean economic results and extreme social deterioration. More schools and roads have been built in the countryside, but farmers and other agricultural workers emigrate to neighboring Costa Rica in search of jobs. New shopping centers have sprouted up throughout the capital, but more than 40% of the population survives on incomes of a mere $1 per day.

In Latin America, only Brazil has worse levels of inequality than Nicaragua. The wealthiest one percent of the nation's populace receives the same share of the pie as half of the country's entire population.

Added to this backdrop is the impact of natural disasters, the recent drop in coffee prices, and ongoing drought, which together have generated unprecedented hunger in the countryside and opened the way for Mr. Ortega's populist discourse.

Fear of Mr. Ortega and memories of war, hyperinflation and confrontation with the United States have gradually given way to nostalgia for the revolution’s benefits of health care and education. These memories contrast starkly with the current government’s lack of concern with the fate of the poor.
As usual, the United States is a key player in the Nicaraguan elections, making it clear that Mr. Ortega is not its candidate. In June, the State Department proclaimed that it would respect the electoral results, but strongly censured Mr. Ortega for his “dangerous friendships” with Colonel Qaddafi, Saddam Hussein and Fidel Castro. Mr. Ortega let the US charges slide, but has been energetically condemning terrorism since the September 11th attack, while his adversaries have been waging a smear campaign against him to instill fear among voters.

It's hard to know if these events will affect the 6% of voters who are still undecided, and who will determine the election results in the end. What is clear, however, is that Mr. Ortega's standing with the electorate has been bolstered by President Arnoldo Alemán's disrepute, and his administration’s unbridled corruption.

Two years ago, from their opposing camps, Mr. Ortega and President Alemán agreed on constitutional reforms that each hoped would work to his own political advantage. The resulting political shake-up led to the divvying up of control over the Supreme Court, the Comptroller's Office and the Elections Tribunal, greatly undermining and further eroding confidence in all state institutions. The “pact” between the nation’s two caudillos also served to shrink the political arena, decapitating a burgeoning “third way” movement that sought to create a political option to President Alemán and Mr. Ortega. Only one other party, the Conservatives, survived to take part in the election, but they will be lucky to get 3% of the vote.

Mr. Ortega's main rival is Liberal Party candidate Enrique Bolaños, a 73-year old businessman who was Alemán's Vice-President until last year. Mr. Bolaños entered government in 1997, as a sort of guarantor against corruption. But even some of his sympathizers acknowledge that despite his honesty, he did nothing to curb his own government's corruption. Thus Mr. Bolaños, who enjoys the open support of Nicaragua's business elite and the Bush Administration, is most plagued by the shadow of President Alemán.

So, what is to be expected if Mr. Ortega wins? Despite the moderation of his promises, the first effect will be economic and financial uncertainty. Local savings, private investment, and foreign cooperation will no doubt be put on hold, which could in turn affect monetary reserves if confidence isn't immediately regained. No one knows how long such a wait and see attitude could last, but Mr. Ortega will need to work quickly to show he is planning to adhere to the economic reforms already set out by the IMF.

In the case that Mr. Bolaños wins, the uncertainty will not be economic but rather political. Mr. Bolaños will have to govern with a parliament controlled by Mr. Ortega and Mr. Alemán. His lack of an independent political base could leave him hostage to the nation's two main strongmen.

The biggest concern today, however, is what will happen when the votes are in. The Elections Tribunal lacks credibility and this nation has no tradition of close elections. Moreover, neither contender is known for being a good loser.

As the countdown proceeds, the head of the OAS's election observers in Nicaragua has predicted the likelihood of a “nightmarish scenario.” Mark the date on your calendar: Monday, November 5th. I'm crossing my fingers that electoral chaos won’t put Nicaragua back in the news again.