China’s $3.2 Trillion Headache

BEIJING – While the downgrade of United States government debt by Standard & Poor’s shocked global financial markets, China has more reason to worry than most: the bulk of its $3.2 trillion in official foreign reserves – more than 60% – is denominated in dollars, including $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds.

So long as the US government does not default, whatever losses China may experience from the downgrade will be small. To be sure, the dollar’s value will fall, imposing a balance-sheet loss on the Peoples’ Bank of China (PBC, the central bank). But a falling dollar would make it cheaper for Chinese consumers and companies to buy American goods. If prices are stable in the US, as is the case now, the gains from buying American goods should exactly offset the PBC’s balance-sheet losses.