World oil prices crossed $40 a barrel in mid-summer, and have since climbed to the mid-$50's. Today's oil prices are still only two-thirds the real peak reached during the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and future markets expect the oil price to fall back and settle at perhaps $45 a barrel. But the current high level of oil prices has led forecasters to start reining in their expectations for economic growth.
"Higher oil prices are here to stay," says the American economic forecaster Allen Sinai. "[T]hat has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up." Indeed, according to Sinai, higher oil prices are "the biggest risk...since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001."