Friday, November 28, 2014

The Gulf States’ Widening Gulf

ISTANBUL – President Barack Obama is arriving in Saudi Arabia at a critical moment for the country. Its recent decision to withdraw its ambassador from Qatar has revealed the gravity of the crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), composed of the Kingdom’s most immediate neighbors. Indeed, Gulf politics is shifting toward a new balance in the wake of the Saudi-UAE rapprochement and the recent attempt to isolate Qatar.

The UAE and Bahrain have joined Saudi Arabia in downgrading relations with Qatar. This is an unusual move, considering the Gulf states’ tradition of treating political disagreements as a family matter, to be handled behind the scenes. Oman is keeping its distance from the situation, while Kuwait has attempted to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Several factors are driving Saudi Arabia’s moves against Qatar, which include a ban prohibiting Saudi intellectuals from contributing to Qatari newspapers. There is Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood (in Egypt and elsewhere); the speeches by the Islamic theologian Yusuf al-Qardawi and the broadcasting policy of Qatar-funded Al Jazeera since the Arab Spring; and the credence given to the view that Qatar is hosting Western institutions with the intent of orchestrating a coup in the Kingdom.

That view reflects Saudi Arabia’s tough stance against the Muslim Brotherhood, which it has declared a terrorist organization. The Kingdom perceives the Brotherhood’s influence in Arab countries, particularly the Gulf states, as a serious threat to its internal stability and survival.

The voluntary abdication by Qatar’s Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani in June 2013, and his replacement as Emir by his son Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, failed to satisfy Saudi expectations of change in Qatari foreign policy. And now the Kingdom has made it clear that it has reached the limits of its patience.

But Saudi Arabia’s attitude toward Qatar may generate some difficulties for its own policy. There is considerable transnational movement of goods and services, and billions of dollars of cross-border investment, across the Gulf – economic activity that would be endangered by the GCC’s further disintegration.

The Muslim Brotherhood is not a violent organization, and it has not engaged in illegal activities in the Gulf countries. Other GCC states, eager to avoid escalating political tensions in their own countries, are unlikely to declare it a terrorist organization. Even Saudi Arabia’s special relationship with Jordan will not push its government to adopt such a declaration. For the time being, harsh policies toward the Muslim Brotherhood are likely to be confined to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The problem for the Kingdom is that simply “correcting” the Qatari position cannot change the political trajectory within the region – particularly in Syria and Egypt. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s imposition of its preferred policies on the GCC, together with the possibility of sanctions on Qatar, risks jeopardizing all that the GCC (which already has fallen into political decline in the wake of the Arab Spring) has achieved over the past 33 years.

Although Qatar’s rulers are concerned about the Kingdom’s growing antipathy toward them, they have shown no indications of submitting to Saudi demands that they change course. Moreover, given the impact on regional geopolitics of the recent interim nuclear deal between Iran and the West, Saudi Arabia’s alienation of its neighbors is all the more hazardous. Making matters worse, it is clear that disagreements within the GCC can no longer be resolved behind closed doors, and that member states are unable to air them publicly without risking a diplomatic rupture.

Across the region, minorities are feeling more empowered and citizens are making ever-stronger demands for better government. There is a burgeoning desire for a future that dispenses with traditional policies based on fear and anger.

In this context, Saudi policy seems to be stuck in the past, and the Kingdom has chosen to adopt a strategy of self-help in order to isolate itself from problems outside its borders, though it continues to regard itself as the region’s power broker. The sudden rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE resulted not from the attractiveness of Saudi policy, but from their rulers’ shared perception that there is a dearth of political options.

It would, of course, be wiser to address the real problems facing GCC governments, which range from embittered minorities to economies that are unable to create enough jobs for young people. But resolving these issues would require an inclusive and accommodating approach, both domestically and regionally, and Saudi Arabia, in particular, is not prepared to take that route.

The Gulf impasse will exacerbate the already-fragile situation in the Middle East. Regional political realities, transnational interaction, and the common search for a better future should, eventually, prevail over policies geared for repression, discipline, and order. The GCC should be accustomed to conflicting perspectives on regional design and differing degrees of cooperation across regional actors, and it should draw on these differences as a source of strength.

This crisis may create an opportunity to rethink and recalibrate GCC strategies, based on a more realistic view of regional interdependence, common security, and shared decision-making. A new mentality in GCC governance could result in the creation of mechanisms of constructive engagement in the region, while maintaining cooperation with international actors. Clearly, this policy would be more constructive than Saudi Arabia’s desire for a lone-wolf role that merely results in a deadlock within and around the Gulf.

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    1. CommentedDan Adams

      The Dubai Tower still stands unfinished on the Doha corniche since the 2008.

    2. Commentedj. von Hettlingen

      Mr. Bülent Aras doesn't see the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as "a violent organization". Indeed Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has relentlessly criticised Egypt for the overthrow of President Morsi and urged for his release.
      Amid turmoil in the Middle East, the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) has been widely seen as the sole regional body, that the West could rely on. Yet, since being formed in 1981, it has failed to achieve its most ambitious targets of economic integration and the establishment of a credible joint defence capability.
      In recent months an unprecedented discord hangs like a Sword of Damocles over the GCC's head, as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have withdrawn ambassadors from Qatar because of the latter's support for the MB in Egypt and elsewhere. Kuwait and Oman have remained neutral in this dispute.
      There are various camps in the Middle East, which are pointing the finger at each other. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain accuse Iran of stoking unrest within their Shia communities and supporting Iraq and Syria. Oman had angered other GCC states by brokering secret talks between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue, as well as recently hosting the Iranian foreign minister on an official visit.
      Iraq has accused Saudi Arabia of supporting Sunni Islamists fighting the Shia-led government. Relations between Egypt and Qatar are strained over the MB, designated as a terrorist group by both countries. Syria put the blame on Saudi Arabia and Qatar for supporting the different factions of the opposition. Lebanon is divided between those for and against the Hezbollah's military support for the Assad regime.
      Against this background unity within the GCC has been off the table in recent years. The aging autocrats have failed to deal with challenges facing the Middle East - youth bulge and high unemployment. While Qatar focuses on investing in their young people, other Gulf rulers are embroiled in fighting to stay in power and preserving their interests in the maelstrom of ideological disputes.
      Saudi Arabia certainly doesn't ejnoy playing its "lone-wolf role". On the contrary it is striving for regional hegomony. Yet its policies often alienate its allies. Even if "Qatar’s rulers are concerned about the Saudis' "growing antipathy toward them, they have shown no indications of submitting to Saudi demands that they change course". Indeed, Qatar has become self-assertive, due to its active role on the regional and world stage, having mediated in disputes in the Middle East and Africa. Unfortunately its efforts aren't overall appreciated.

    3. Commentedtony smith

      "The UAE and Bahrain have joined Saudi Arabia in downgrading relations with Qatar. "

      Considering Qatar bailed out UAEs basket case economy after the financial crisis, I would be intrigued to know how this works in practice. How do you go about downgrading your relationship with your creditor or the hand that feeds you?!