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La nouvelle orientation de l’économie mondiale

WASHINGTON, DC – Le monde qui nous entoure évolue dans un état de changement constant, c’est une réalité. Ce qui est nouveau, en revanche, c’est que les tendances économiques récentes suggèrent qu’un changement d’orientation fondamental des choses pourrait bien s’opérer.

Prenons l’exemple des économies développées. Au cours des vingt dernières années, la croissance économique de ces pays a été alimentée par la consommation – tant et si bien que l’activité économique de ces pays a basculé de l’investissement vers la consommation, au total à hauteur de 10 points de pourcentage du PIB. Ainsi, en 2010, la part de la consommation dans leur PIB avait atteint 81,6%.

1990

2010

(en pourcentage du PIB)

Économies développées

Consommation

76,4

81,6

Investissement

23,7

18,4

Économies émergentes et en voie de développement

Consommation

73,4

67,1

Investissement

26,0

30,8

Dans le même temps, les marchés émergents et les économies en développement ont renvoyé une image presque miroir de cette tendance, accroissant leur investissement et boostant la fourniture de marchandises au reste du monde au détriment de la consommation dans leur propre pays. En 2010, la part de la consommation dans leur PIB était passée de 73,4% à 67,1%.

Quant à l’avenir, il est peu probable que la part de la consommation dans le PIB augmente davantage dans les économies développées. Les principaux moteurs de cette augmentation ont principalement été l’ingénierie financière et les effets de richesse dus au prix élevé des actifs. Aucun de ces facteurs ne joue actuellement dans le sens d’une hausse de la part de la consommation dans le PIB.

Seulement, la consommation dans les pays développés peut-elle être maintenue à son niveau actuel ? Il est possible que non. Les niveaux actuels de la consommation sont associés à des États et à des ménages ayant dépassé les limites du raisonnable, et dont le niveau d’endettement reste élevé, ce qui exige de réaliser davantage d’économies. Les banques elles-aussi sont confrontées à la nécessité de lever des capitaux. De manière générale, de nombreux agents économiques ont besoin d’une longue période de désendettement.

Or, les politiques actuelles adoptées par les principales économies avancées visent à maintenir les niveaux de consommation actuels afin de favoriser la croissance et l’emploi. Si la part de la consommation dans le PIB décline d’un autre côté, un simple calcul nous amène à conclure qu’il est nécessaire que l’investissement et les exportations soient plus élevés afin de maintenir la demande totale.

Doit-on s’attendre à ce que les marchés émergents et les économies en développement prennent le relais ? Pour maintenir une croissance forte dans ces économies tandis que la demande extérieure décline, la demande domestique doit devenir le moteur principal de la croissance. Ceci signifie une plus forte consommation domestique et des niveaux d’investissement appropriés, afin de soutenir une telle croissance de la consommation. Dans les pays où les niveaux d’investissement conduisent à une capacité excédentaire, les ressources de l’investissement pourraient être réorientées vers la consommation, à condition que les comptes extérieurs de ces États restent viables.

Il y a là un certain nombre de mouvements tectoniques majeurs dans la structure de l’économie mondiale, qui présentent plusieurs dangers potentiels. Le rythme du changement est voué à varier selon les secteurs et entre les économies, conduisant à une inadéquation de l’offre et de la demande à l’échelle mondiale.

Par ailleurs, compte tenu de la mondialisation, une difficulté économique frappant une partie du monde est susceptible de se transmettre au reste de la planète dans une mesure encore plus conséquente, compliquant de manière substantielle les mesures de réponse à la fois dans les pays développés et les économies en développement. Une étude menée par le Fonds monétaire international sur la question de ces effets d’entraînement affirme qu’avant la crise financière mondiale, les facteurs extérieurs expliquaient pour 36% la variation de la production des cinq économies les plus importantes en termes systémique (la zone euro, les États-Unis, la Chine, le Japon et le Royaume-Uni) ; cette part s’étant approchée de 60% après la crise. Dans le reste du monde, y compris sur les marchés émergents, la proportion de l’importance des facteurs externes dans la variation de la production est passée de 43% à plus de 60%.

Dans un tel environnement, il est nécessaire que nous menions avec soin une coordination des politiques au niveau mondial. Si nous entendons procéder à un réalignement ordonné de la consommation et de l’investissement sur le plan international, il est fondamental que les politiques qui boostent l’investissement dans une partie du monde soient en adéquation avec celles qui boostent la consommation ailleurs.

Il est en particulier nécessaire que les économies développées adoptent des réformes fondamentales d’optimisation de la productivité, que la zone euro renforce l’union monétaire, et que les marchés émergents et les économies en développement stimulent leurs sources domestiques de croissance. Il est également important que ces politiques s’inscrivent dans une stabilité budgétaire et externe. Par ailleurs, les politiques et mesures réglementaires cadre en matière de finance doivent être coordonnées au niveau mondial, afin de concevoir et de mettre en œuvre des règles fondées par le consensus  répondant ainsi aux problèmes que soulèvent des institutions mondiales très larges, considérées comme bien trop complexes ou d’une envergure trop importante pour échouer.

Ce n’est qu’à condition d’une telle coordination mondiale que nous pourrons réduire – et si possible éliminer – l’instabilité économique et les ajustements désordonnés, tant sur le plan national qu’international, alors même que nous cherchons à maximiser les avantages des changements inévitables qui se dessinent dans l’économie mondiale.

Traduit de l’anglais par Martin Morel

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  1. Commented
    100%

    Vincas Andriusis

    Process of Globalization has no option to stop, because it is natural progress of the Humanity development. But it will be not enough just to unite the economic and political structures into the Global structures. In order to solve the problems of the economy we will need to change direction, and not a little bit – we’ll need to change it 180-degree angle. This means that the consumereconomy, which is generally opposite to the concept of the economy will have to change their economy, focused on the natural and common humanity needs. Thus, in particular, will need to change the thinking of mankind.

  2. Commented
    100%

    Edward Ponderer

    The nations of this planet must indeed be proactive in adjusting the global economy into homeostasis, and this will require a watershed breakthrough -- the realization that the dominant concern of every nation must be directed beyond ones own borders -- just as a loose colony has evolved into a single body when the dominant concern of the limbs and organs is the body as a whole. And this happens because it must as the interactive conditions of the whole have become greater than the sum of the parts, and the cohesiveness of the parts must follow suite in order to thrive -- or even survive.

    Difficult as this transition sounds, the consequences of not doing so are far more difficult to deal. Consider Zhu Min's observation that: "These are major tectonic shifts in the structure of the global economy, and are fraught with potential dangers. The pace of change will vary between sectors and across economies, leading to mismatches of demand and supply worldwide." Indeed -- but not merely that. Are there simply two monoliths: "emerging market and developing economies" and "the advanced economies," or is there really a distribution that might be better modeled by three or more?

    Even at three, there appears to open up a "fractal basin," which in the basis of a chaotic pendulum. That is, a metal pendulum swinging between three magnets below, placed at the vertices of an equilateral triangle. Near the border of any two magnets, the third more distant magnet provides the weakest field. However, because the two closer magnets largely cancel each other, that third magnet paradoxically becomes dominant. This is the simplest construction of an effect that proves a fractal pattern throughout.

    Anyone who has ever toyed around with a chaotic pendulum know how wildly unpredictable the thing can swing in every which way -- and how long. Its a fun toy dynamic, but it would not prove a very fun global economic dynamic.

  3. Commented
    100%

    Zsolt Hermann

    The article is spot on with its recommendation of global coordination and policy making.
    Today the world has evolved into a completely closed and interdependent integral network, thus even the greatest, stronger countries could be imbalanced, even in a fundamental change by changes in seemingly unconnected regions or small countries.
    We already saw this through the example of Greece last year and that was only a scare (so far) and Greece is not really a dominant country.
    But global coordination is not enough until we accept the other, even greater problem the article touches upon, the unsustainable nature of the present consumer society, the illusion of infinite growth and endless profit in a closed and finite natural system.
    Using this article's first line, "whether we like it or not" we exist in a natural system regulated by strict natural laws, thus we also have to adapt to those laws of general balance and homeostasis in order to survive and have a future.
    Thus mutual global coordination, cooperation, and living by the fundamental natural laws governing our reality is the path towards a predictable future.

  4. Commented

    Joshua Ioji Konov

    Mr. Min, under the currently used economics the probability for substantial economic growth by most developed economies is very low, indeed; however, if the market effectiveness is improved to boost business activities that could not be succeeded just by using monetary or fiscal approaches, these economic growth (i.e. market development) could be empowered... http://joshuakonov.wordpress.com/

  5. Commented

    Frank O'Callaghan

    One of the core issues in the global change is constantly neglected. Inequality in wealth distribution causes insecurity. A redistribution will stimulate the whole world. The greac concentration of wealth in few hands it the root cause of the crisis.

  6. Commented

    Robert Pringle

    Zhu Min makes a fundamental point that is often neglected: the need both for coordination of macro policies and a simultaneous implementation of financial sector policies with rules to address the inbuilt instability of present arrangements including the too-big-fail problem. At present, these are discussed in separate fora with distinct groups of experts - in fact the first is hardly discussed at all since the failure of the G20. It is the function of a proper international monetary system to provide a benchmark for good monetary policies together with an overarching framework of rules to ensure a sustainable market-based banking and financal system. Creditor countries such as China should go on pressing for both sets of reforms; a variety of options is analysed in www.themoneytrap.com. Until we reestablish a proper international monetary system that promotes such coordination, the world will remain ensnared in the money trap. The tragedy is that the US is under the illusion that it can get out of the trap all by itself. The US must rediscover multilateralism.

  7. Commented
    Portrait of Pingfan Hong

    Pingfan Hong

    According to the table, for advanced economies, the share of investment plus the share of consumption equals exactly 100%, for both 1990 and 2010, implying a balanced current account for this group. This is in contradiction to the fact that there has been a constant net transfer of financial resourses every year for the past decade from the developing countries to the developed countries as a whole, in the form of foreign exchange reserves accumulation of the former.

  8. Commented
    Portrait of Pingfan Hong

    Pingfan Hong

    It sounds like you are advocating for a central planning for consumption and investment in the world economies at the global level: turn the IMF into a global planning commission?

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