Commentaries

The Roots of China’s Rapid Recovery

2010-01-31

For much of the world, China’s ability to shrug off the global financial crisis and maintain a strong growth trajectory in 2010 and 2011 seems too easy. But, while aggressive stimulus certainly helped, China's real salvation was cautious macroeconomic management well before the crisis hit.... read

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Avatar and Empire

Naomi Wolf Series: The Next Wave

2010-01-29

James Cameron’s film Avatar is notable for two revealing themes: the raw, guilty template of the American unconscious in the context of the “war on terror” and late-stage corporate imperialism, and the film's very critical portrayal of America – for the first time ever in a Hollywood blockbuster – from the point of view of the rest of the world.... read

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Is Russia’s Economic Crisis Over?

Irina Yasina Series: A Window on Russia

2010-01-29

It is not yet certain whether the engine of the global economy will be able to run without additional liquidity, possibly undermining fiscal stability worldwide. Elsewhere, that will become clear in the first half of 2010; in Russia, signs of recovery, if they appear at all, will lag well behind the rest of the world.... read

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The Islamic Case for Religious Liberty

Mustafa Akyol Series: The Worldly Philosophers

2010-01-28

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of the Orthodox Church recently said on an American television broadcast that he feels “crucified” in Turkey, upsetting many Turks. Sadly, his Holiness is right, but his complaint is not with Islam; it is with the Turkish Republic's rigid nationalism and secularism.... read

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China’s Cyber-Warriors

Brahma Chellaney Series: China World

2010-01-28

China deploys tens of thousands of “cyber police” to block Web sites, patrol cyber-cafes, monitor the use of cellular telephones, and track down Internet activists. But China's real threat to cyberspace comes comes from the way in which it uses its know-how to engage in cyber intrusion across international frontiers.... read

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The Unbearable Lightness of Change

Shlomo Ben-Ami Series: War and Peace

2010-01-27

Barack Obama’s first year in office has been a sobering exercise in the limits of presidential power. It also carries lessons about how the resilient and impersonal forces of history can constrain any leader’s drive for change. ... read

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A Year of US-China Discord?

Ian Bremmer and David Gordon Series: The World in Words

2010-01-27

In 2009, Forbes magazine named US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao the "world’s most powerful people." In 2010, we will discover that neither has the power to keep US-Chinese relations on track. ... read

Comments: 2 Recommended: 1 Read: 11278

America’s Employment Dilemma

J. Bradford DeLong Series: Anatomy of the Global Economy

2010-01-27

Some countries – China, for example – implemented job-creation policies a year ago that relied on boosting demand for goods and services, and are now reaping the benefits in higher employment. Other countries, like the US, did not, and now face the need to fight unemployment directly, through government job programs or tax credits to businesses that hire new workers.... read

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Back to the Future in Finance

Harold James Series: Capitalism Then and Now

2010-01-27

While former US Fed Chairman Paul Volcker provided the central inspiration for Barack Obama’s recent proposal for overhauling banking, he has also been a prominent critic of the dangers of currency volatility. Returning to fixed exchange rates would run counter to almost every argument of modern economics, but, at a moment when we are looking to the past for financial solutions, it is no longer unthinkable.... read

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Africa’s Diaspora to the Rescue

Sanou Mbaye Series: Into Africa

2010-01-26

Official statistics for 2009 are likely to show that migrants’ remittances fell sharply, as the global recession severely eroded job opportunities abroad. That makes it all the more important that African countries, many of which have paid a strong groundwork for sustainable growth, have a financial system in place that can leverage remittances effectively as the global economy recovers.... read

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Inherited Malignancy

Brigitte Schlegelberger and Tim Ripperger Series: Health and Medicine

2010-01-26

Screening the human genome for breast-cancer susceptibility factors has led to the identification of novel genetic variants, and ongoing studies and further technical progress will certainly lead to additional significant findings. But the challenge today is to dig out the clinical relevance of these findings and translate them into daily health care. ... read

Comments: 0 Recommended: 0 Read: 13473

America’s Growth in the Decade Ahead

Martin Feldstein Series: The Magic of the Market

2010-01-25

Although the strength of the US economy in 2010 is still uncertain, it is important to look ahead to its likely performance in the coming decade. Adding up all the key components of GDP, annual economic growth is likely to be about 1.9%, or roughly the same as the average rate over the past ten years.... read

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Guilty Democrats

Ma Jian Series: Human Rights

2010-01-25

The Chinese government's imprisonment of the writer Liu Xiaobo is a blatant attempt to criminalize democratic thought, and the real criminal in this case is, of course, the Chinese state. But the world’s democracies are guilty as well, for they appear to have lost their willingness to stand up for their beliefs.... read

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Rebuilding Haiti From Davos

Kanayo F. Nwanze Series: Frontiers of Growth

2010-01-25

When the captains of business and industry meet in Davos for the World Economic Forum this month, the devastation caused by the recent earthquake in Haiti will be near the top of their agenda. It should be, for there is much they can do to help.... read

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Reconstructing Haiti

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2010-01-25

Rebuilding Haiti will cost perhaps $10-$20 billion, and will require much of the coming decade. Getting started now will save countless lives and prevent a further tragic downward spiral of a society that stands at the very brink of survival.... read

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The Fiscal Crisis Down Below

Michael Boskin Series: Transatlantic Perspectives

2010-01-22

Sub-national governments – states, countries, cities, provinces, towns, and special districts – play different roles from country to country, but usually deliver important public services. In many countries, their fiscal position has collapsed under the combined weight of mismanagement and the global economic and financial crisis.... read

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Obamanomics: Year One and Beyond

Barry Eichengreen Series: The Next Financial Order

2010-01-22

The great strength of Barack Obama's economic policies - in health care, fiscal stimulus, and stabilizing the banking system - has been not to allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good. But, with the time for crisis management coming to a close, he now needs to aim higher if he is to fulfill his promise of a more economically just society.... read

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The UN to the Rescue on Climate Change

Michel Rocard Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2010-01-22

There is no unanimity requirement or veto in the UN General Assembly, which might well be why it has not been called upon in the effort to fight climate change. Yet the General Assembly is the only place where obstruction by major countries – for example, by China and the United States at December’s global climate talks in Copenhagen – can be bypassed.... read

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Is Bankers’ Pay Really the Root of Financial Evil?

Steven N. Kaplan Series: Frontiers of Growth

2010-01-22

Compensation practices at financial firms have been accused of being a primary cause of the recent global financial crisis, and restricting bankers’ pay is said to be the answer. But, before instituting such invasive regulation, we should examine more closely whether past compensation structures really were at the heart of our recent problems.... read

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Redesigning European Energy Security

William Martin and Jonathan Gillman Series: Earth in the Balance

2010-01-22

Every year, it seems, starts with the return of a noxious tradition: the annual dispute between Russia and Ukraine over energy, a dispute that left millions of Europeans shivering last winter. The EU can no longer afford its fragmented energy-supply system and lack of political cohesion, which undermines its ability to forge a long-term energy strategy.... read

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Sarkozy’s Three-Way NATO Bet

Camille Grand Series: Europe at Home and Abroad

2010-01-21

France’s return to NATO’s integrated military structure after a 43-year absence earlier this year brought to an end one of the exceptions françaises. It also helped frame the growing debate over whether to develop European defense more effectively or to seriously reform the Atlantic alliance.... read

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Off With Their Heads

Simon Johnson Series: The Hopeful Science

2010-01-21

WASHINGTON, DC – At last the Obama administration seems to be contemplating a decisive move against America’s banking elite. Following the recent electoral setback in Massachusetts the proposals laid down by former Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker, to reduce the market power of the banks, are being dusted off. ... read

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China’s Next Mountain to Climb

Michael Spence Series: The New Wealth of Nations

2010-01-21

After three decades of sustained growth and a remarkably successful policy response to the recent global crisis, Chinese self-confidence is soaring. But the lessons that China's government may draw from the crisis may not be the best guides for the long term.... read

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A Cool Head for the Hottest Issues

Chris Patten Series: History in Motion

2010-01-20

Recalling Hillary Clinton’s famous Democratic primary television advertisement, Barack Obama, it turns out, is exactly the sort of president that most of us would want to have in the post for that 3 a.m. phone call about an international crisis. He is not afraid to act, but he is prepared to think first.... read

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The Bogey of Inflation

Robert Skidelsky Series: Against the Current

2010-01-19

If inflation has succeeded recession as today’s main problem, as many conservative economists contend, governments should withdraw their stimulus policies as soon as possible. But the fact that there is no evidence of higher prices in the pipeline in Europe and the US means that there is no real evidence of economic recovery – and thus that officials there should increase spending.... read

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The CEO Pay Slice

Lucian Bebchuk, Martijn Cremers and Urs Peyer Series: The Rules Of The Game

2010-01-18

There is now intense debate about how the pay levels of top executives compare with the compensation given to rank-and-file employees. But, while such comparisons can tell us much about the dynamics of inequality, the distribution of pay among top executives also deserves close attention, because it may very well point to serious corporate governance problems.... read

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The Google that Can Say No

Esther Dyson Series: Net World

2010-01-18

Google's threat to leave China probably stems from a combination of – or rather, a changing calculus around – its business interests and its values. The censorship issue has long grated at the company, but so have the constraints on any foreign company's ability to make serious long-term profits.... read

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A Chinese Champion of Peace and Freedom

Václav Havel et al Series: The World in Words

2010-01-18

On Christmas Day last year, one of China’s best-known human rights activists, Liu Xiaobo, was condemned to 11 years in prison. For his bravery and clarity of thought about China’s future, Liu deserves the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize.... read

Comments: 17 Recommended: 1 Read: 51601

Iran’s Republic of Fear

Mehdi Khalaji Series: Islam

2010-01-18

Iran’s clerical regime governs by a simple formula: he who is the most frightening, wins. But cultivating fear in others also makes one more susceptible to fear, and nothing is more frightening to the Islamic Republic's leaders than the social dynamism unleashed by the democratic movement brewing inside the country.... read

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The Risky Rich

Nouriel Roubini Series: After the Storm

2010-01-18

Traditionally, sovereign risk has been concentrated in emerging-market economies. But ratings downgrades, a widening of sovereign spreads, and failed public-debt auctions in countries like the UK, Greece, Ireland, and Spain provide a stark reminder that unless advanced economies begin fiscal consolidation, investors, bond-market vigilantes, and rating agencies may turn from friend to foe. ... read

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Engineering Financial Stability

Robert J. Shiller Series: Finance in the 21st Century

2010-01-18

The severity of the global financial crisis that we have seen over the last two years has to do with a fundamental source of instability in the banking system, one that we can and must design out of existence. To do that, we must advance the state of our financial technology. ... read

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Rescuing Yemen

Mai Yamani Series: The World in Words

2010-01-18

Following Al Qaeda's failed Christmas Day attack on a Detroit-bound airliner, Barack Obama and Gordon Brown jointly proposed a conference in London to propose solutions for the previously overlooked crises in Yemen. But, unless they grasp the fact that Yemen’s problems go well beyond Al Qaeda’s presence in the country, the conference will do more harm than good.... read

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Heroes Cross Swords in Sri Lanka

Brahma Chellaney Series: The Asian Century

2010-01-15

Two celebrated heroes who, as president and army chief, helped end Sri Lanka’s long and brutal civil war last year are now crossing political swords. Whichever candidate wins Sri Lanka’s presidential election on January 26 will have to lead that small but strategically located island-nation in a fundamentally different direction.... read

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Rethinking Poverty Reduction

Jomo Kwame Sundaram Series: Frontiers of Growth

2010-01-15

The United Nations’ biennial Report on the World Social Situation (RWSS 2010), entitled Rethinking Poverty, makes a compelling case for rethinking poverty-measurement and poverty-reduction efforts. But there will be no real poverty eradication without equitable and sustainable economic development, which deregulated markets have proved unable to deliver on their own.... read

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Europe’s Fearful Natives

Dominique Moisi Series: European Observer

2010-01-14

More than ever before in recent decades, fear is becoming the dominant force in European politics. And it is not an abstract, undefined fear: it is above all the fear of the non-European “other,” perceived by a growing numbers of “white” Europeans as a threat to their identities and ways of life, if not their physical security and jobs.... read

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Managing China’s Crisis Management

Yu Yongding Series: China World

2010-01-14

The Chinese government has signaled that it is beginning its exit from expansionary measures aimed at mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis and recession. A change of policy can't come soon enough: China’s long-term growth prospects may be seriously affected if the authorities fail to tackle the economy’s structural problems head on. ... read

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Sudan between Peril and Hope

Lakhdar Brahimi and Desmond Tutu Series: The World in Words

2010-01-13

With the right international support, Sudan could move decisively towards peace and democracy in the coming months. But, if the international community fails the challenge, conflicts and tensions that have already cost hundreds of thousands of lives will continue and worsen.... read

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How to Undermine an Alliance

Yuriko Koike Series: Asia Watch

2010-01-13

2010 marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-United States Security Treaty. But, instead of celebrating an agreement that has helped stabilize East Asia for a half-century, the treaty is now at serious risk, as much from Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's indecision as from his government's deep strains of anti-Americanism.... read

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Two Cheers for China’s Climate Obstruction

Bjørn Lomborg Series: Global Warning

2010-01-13

Since the Copenhagen climate summit’s failure, many politicians and pundits have pointed the finger at China’s leaders for blocking a binding, global carbon-mitigation treaty. But the Chinese government’s resistance was both understandable and inevitable.... read

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Will China Rule the World?

Dani Rodrik Series: Roads to Prosperity

2010-01-12

Americans and Europeans blithely assume that China will become more like them as its economy develops and its population gets richer. But a world order centered on China will reflect Chinese values rather than Western ones - that is, if China can continue its rapid economic growth and maintain its social cohesion and political unity. ... read

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Latin America’s Military Factor

Juan Gabriel Tokatlian Series: Latin America

2010-01-12

Although the global economic crisis did not affect Latin America as dramatically as it did other regions, the continent's political and institutional weaknesses and perils worsened. The greatest cause of concern is that the military question – supposedly resolved after the transition to democracy, the end of the Cold War, and efforts to achieve regional integration – has reappeared. ... read

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An Antitrust Counter-Revolution?

Xavier Vives Series: European Economies

2010-01-12

The current crisis, with its government bailouts and subsidies, has placed tremendous pressure on competition policy on both sides of the Atlantic. As a result, whereas antitrust policy had come to focus on efficiency since its inception in late nineteenth-century America, it may revert to its original populist focus on the size of firms.... read

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Can Energy Be Governed?

Ann Florini Series: Earth in the Balance

2010-01-11

Energy lies at the heart of the world’s most pressing global governance challenges. Yet at both the global and national levels, energy governance is far from being able to bring about the desperately needed transition to a system of secure and sustainable provision of energy services.... read

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Is Military Power Becoming Obsolete?

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2010-01-11

When people speak of military power, they tend to think in terms of the resources that underlie the hard-power behavior of fighting and threatening to fight – soldiers, tanks, planes, ships, and so forth. But in today’s world, there is much more to military resources than guns and battalions, and more to using them than fighting or threatening to fight.... read

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A Dissident in China

Ian Buruma Series: Crossing Cultures

2010-01-07

With China's economy still roaring ahead and success following success in foreign policy, the Chinese government, under the Communist Party, has every reason to feel confident. So why did a gentle former literature professor named Liu Xiaobo have to be sentenced to 11 years in prison, just because he publicly advocated freedom of expression and an end to one-party rule?... read

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Europe’s Troublesome Neighbors

Nick Witney Series: Europe at Home and Abroad

2010-01-06

Geography has dealt Europe a mixed hand. While Europeans can congratulate themselves on being a relatively safe distance away from whatever tensions may accompany the rise of powers like India, Brazil, and, especially, China, they are bordered to the south and east by two great regions that give cause for significant concern.... read

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The Wild West of Electronic Waste

Oladele A. Ogunseitan Series: Science and Society

2010-01-06

For more than a decade, the precious metallic component of discarded electronic devices has been fueling a polarized international trade in potentially hazardous materials. In countries where labor is cheap, the prospect of recovering trace amounts of gold or platinum entices communities to discount heavily the toxic risks and health effects of chronic exposure.... read

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Overcoming the Copenhagen Failure

Joseph E. Stiglitz Series: Unconventional Economic Wisdom

2010-01-06

Underlying the failure of the climate change summit in Copenhagen last month is the failure of the idea that carbon-emission rights can be allocated fairly. Perhaps it is time to try another approach: a commitment by each country to raise the price of emissions (whether through a carbon tax or emissions caps) to an agreed level, say, $80 per ton.... read

Comments: 3 Recommended: 1 Read: 29338

Israel and NATO – Between Membership and Partnership

Shlomo Ben-Ami Series: War and Peace

2010-01-05

Israel's accession to NATO has frequently been proposed as a way to encourage it to make the necessary concessions for an Arab-Israeli peace settlement, and some Israeli leaders, like Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, believe that NATO accession would deter Iran. But, despite important steps toward closer cooperation, full Israeli membership can be ruled out for the foreseeable future.... read

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Why Big Banks Will Get Bigger

Harold James Series: Capitalism Then and Now

2010-01-05

From banks’ perspective, the most obvious lesson of the financial crisis was the need for a strong national government to bear the potential costs of a rescue. It is no longer best to be where the most favorable regulatory regime prevails, but to be where the state has the deepest pockets.... read

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Grandmasters and Global Growth

Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy

2010-01-05

As the global economy limps into a new one in 2010, what will be the next big driver of global growth? Evidence from the world of chess suggests that it will be artificial intelligence, the uses of which will multiply, generating an economic impact on par with the emergence of India and China.... read

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Europe’s Latest Revolution

Carl Bildt Series: The World in Words

2010-01-04

History often moves with small steps, but such steps sometimes turn out to have big implications. This could well be true of the new EU institutions being established this year under the Lisbon Treaty, but whether the EU will be seen as a model for the future or as a museum of the past depends on whether it remains committed to an open Europe in an open world.... read

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Asia’s Changing Power Dynamics

Brahma Chellaney Series: The Asian Century

2010-01-04

Never before have China, Japan, and India all been strong at the same time. But there can be no denying that these three leading Asian powers and the US have different playbooks: America wants a uni-polar world but a multi-polar Asia; China seeks a multi-polar world but a uni-polar Asia; and Japan and India desire a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world.... read

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How to Keep a New Year’s Resolution

Peter Singer Series: The Ethics of Life

2010-01-04

We are not yet far into 2010, but studies show that fewer than half of those who make New Year’s resolutions manage to keep them for as long as one month. But there are steps that you can take to increase your chances of succeeding.... read

Comments: 2 Recommended: 1 Read: 21564

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