Commentaries

Stimulating Equality

Edward N. Wolff Series: Frontiers of Growth

2009-01-30

With unemployment climbing in the United States and other OECD countries, job creation is a key objective for policymakers. But, as they implement stimulus packages in the months ahead, they should recognize that the question of who benefits goes beyond the number of jobs created.... read

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Barack Obama’s Missing Freedom Agenda

Naomi Wolf Series: The Next Wave

2009-01-30

On his second full day in office, Barack Obama signed executive orders to close the prison at Guantánamo Bay and restore America to the company of civilized nations by reaffirming the illegality of state torture. That's a good start, but it is not enough to repair the damage to liberty caused by the previous administration.... read

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Four Ways Out

J. Bradford DeLong Series: Anatomy of the Global Economy

2009-01-29

When an economy falls into a depression, governments can try four tools – fiscal policy, credit policy, monetary policy, and inflation – to return employment to its normal level and production to its “potential” level. The problem today is that governments are down to two of these tools, and neither of them is ideal for the job.... read

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Trick or Treat?

Riccardo Rebonato Series: The Worldly Philosophers

2009-01-29

A new way of thinking about individual choice has taken the political landscape by storm, because it holds out the promise of "nudging" rather than coercing people into making optimal decisions, like enrolling in pension plans. But is tricking people into making choices that they otherwise wouldn't make really any better than forcing them to do so?... read

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The Death of Trust

Sin-ming Shaw Series: The World in Words

2009-01-29

Just as we obey our leaders’ orders to fight and die because we trust their judgment, we trust our careers and our money to those who run Citigroup and Goldman Sachs and other such banks, because we believe their leaders will be fair to their employees and clients, and honorable in their business practices. So now what?... read

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My Outlook for 2009

George Soros Series:

2009-01-29

DAVOS – The bursting of bubbles causes credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets, deflation, and wealth destruction that may reach catastrophic proportions. In a deflationary environment, the weight of accumulated debt can sink the banking system and push the economy into depression. That is what needs to be prevented at all costs.... read

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Renewing the International Financial System

George Soros Series:

2009-01-29

NEW YORK – The international financial system has been dominated by the United States and the so-called “Washington consensus” for decades. Far from providing a level playing field, it has favored the countries that are in control of the international financial institutions (IFIs), notably the US, to the detriment of the countries at the periphery of the world economy. ... read

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Europe’s Russia Problem

George Soros Series:

2009-01-29

NEW YORK – How should Europe react to the rise of a hostile Russia on its eastern flank? Different countries have reacted differently, influenced by their historical experience and their economic interests. Yet it is essential for the European Union to develop a unified policy, reconciling these divergent national interests and attitudes. ... read

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The Politics of Cheap Oil

George Soros Series:

2009-01-29

NEW YORK – The world’s oil-producing countries have suffered a sudden reversal of fortune. The vast surpluses that they have been running for much of the past decade have turned into deficits, and their sovereign wealth funds and currency reserves have suffered major losses. For the rest of the world, this is not necessarily bad news. But for the oil-producing countries, days of reckoning appear to be at hand.... read

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Can Russia be Saved?

Sergei Guriev and Aleh Tsyvinski Series: A Window on Russia

2009-01-29

The global economic crisis has finally forced Russia's government to adopt reasonable policies, thereby staving off disaster – at least for now. But the ossified, corrupt, inefficient economy built in the fat years of the oil boom may still prove impossible to save.... read

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Less Carbon Can Mean More Growth

Jeroen van der Veer Series: Earth in the Balance

2009-01-29

Although the global recession is serious and its duration uncertain, the world must nevertheless continue to focus on the far-reaching threat of climate change. Indeed, if we are smart, public policy can serve the twin goals of stimulating growth and fighting global warming.... read

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Why Do Smart People Live Longer?

Ian Deary Series: Health and Medicine

2009-01-28

People with higher intelligence test scores in childhood and early adulthood tend to live longer. There are several explanations for this, and once we know what intelligent people have and do that enables them to live longer, we will be able to share and apply that knowledge with the aim of achieving optimal health for all.... read

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The Real Che Guevara

Guy Sorman Series: The World in Words

2009-01-28

Hollywood history is often nonsensical, but filmmakers usually have the good sense not to whitewash killers and sadists. Steven Soderbergh’s new film about Che Guevara, however, does that, and more.... read

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The Crash of 2008

George Soros Series:

2009-01-28

Since the 1930’s, whenever the world came to the brink of a financial breakdown, the authorities came to the rescue. That is what I expected in 2008, but it did not happen. On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers was allowed to collapse. Within days, the entire financial system suffered what amounted to cardiac arrest and had to be put on artificial life support. The effect on the global economy was the equivalent of the breakdown of the banking system during the Great Depression, though the full impact has not yet been felt. ... read

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A Plan for Economic Recovery

George Soros Series:

2009-01-28

When financial bubbles burst, the resulting credit contraction, forced liquidation of assets, deflation, and wealth destruction may reach catastrophic proportions. In a deflationary environment, the weight of accumulated debt can sink the banking system and push the economy into depression. That is what needs to be prevented at all costs.... read

Comments: 0 Recommended: 0 Read: 4797

My Outlook for 2009

George Soros Series:

2009-01-28

DAVOS – The future of the global economy will depend greatly on whether President Barack Obama launches a comprehensive and coherent set of measures, and on how successfully he carries them out. How the Chinese, Europeans, and other major players respond will be almost as important. If there is good international cooperation, the world economy may start climbing out of a deep hole by the end of 2009. If not, we will face a much longer period of economic and political disorder and decline.... read

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Reflexivity as the New Paradigm

George Soros Series:

2009-01-28

The prevailing interpretation of financial markets – the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) – has been well and truly discredited by the Crash of 2008. The current financial crisis was not caused by some exogenous factor – like the formation or dissolution of an oil cartel – but by the financial system itself. This puts the lie to the assertion that financial markets tend towards equilibrium and deviations are caused by external shocks. But the alternative theory of how markets work that I am proposing – the theory of reflexivity – has not taken its place. It has not even received serious consideration by the economics profession.... read

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The Case for Fiscal Stimulus

Martin Feldstein Series: The Magic of the Market

2009-01-26

Governments around the world are now developing massive fiscal stimulus packages that will cause unprecedented budget deficits – a sharp change from the reliance on monetary policy that was used to deal with previous recessions. But the emphasis on fiscal policy is justified, because the current recession is much deeper than and different from previous downturns. ... read

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The Euro at Ten

Michael Boskin Series: Transatlantic Perspectives

2009-01-23

As the euro marks its tenth anniversary, low inflation, no currency risk, decreased transaction costs, and greater transparency have made the common currency a success. But euro-zone members' decreased flexibility in response to economic shocks will certainly test it in the months and years ahead.... read

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The End of the Two-State Solution?

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2009-01-23

Trying to extricate Israel and the Palestinians from the strategic dead-end they have maneuvered themselves into will be possible only from outside. If an imposed solution fails, the entire region will begin to slip into a dangerous confrontation – one that will not be limited to Israelis and Palestinians.... read

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Does Legalizing Prostitution Work?

Heleen Mees Series: Human Rights

2009-01-23

Prostitution is virtually the only part of the personal services industry in the Netherlands that works. But it hasn't worked for prostitutes themselves, who are routinely threatened, beaten, raped, and terrorized by pimps and customers.... read

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A Year of Anniversaries and Uncertainties

Wenran Jiang Series: China Stands Up

2009-01-22

For China, last year began with devastating snowstorms, followed by riots in Tibet, embarrassing protests against the Olympic torch relay, and, before the Games themselves, a devastating earthquake. If all that could occur in a year marked by the "lucky" number eight, 2009, littered with a host of extremely sensitive anniversaries, could prove even more dramatic and unpredictable.... read

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Blind in Gaza and Jerusalem

Chris Patten Series: History in Motion

2009-01-22

However tough things looked in the past for Palestine and Israel, it seems that reason has now been drowned in blood. The politics of hope have given way to the politics of the cemetery.... read

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The Sarkozy Option

Dominique Moisi Series: European Observer

2009-01-21

France under Nicolas Sarkozy is attempting to incarnate what might be called “the West by default,” making maximum use of the opportunity created by America’s long presidential transition. More importantly, in a world where the rise of China and India means that there is less America and less Europe, France, according to Sarkozy, must clearly define itself as part of the West.... read

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African Misrule on Trial

James A. Goldston Series: Into Africa

2009-01-20

Just as Barack Obama's inauguration is a milestone in the struggle for racial equality, recent developments in The Hague mark progress in the struggle to end impunity for mass crimes. Judges at the ICC will decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir for genocide, and then will begin trying Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, a former Congolese warlord.... read

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A Breakthrough Against Hunger

Jeffrey D. Sachs Series: Economics and Justice

2009-01-20

Nearly one billion people today are trapped in chronic hunger – perhaps 100 million more than two years ago. In such circumstances, even a little aid – directed toward providing small farmers with better seeds, fertilizers and irrigation systems – can go a long way.... read

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Turkey’s Middle Eastern Road to Europe

Sinan Ülgen Series: Europe at Home and Abroad

2009-01-20

While EU membership looks more distant than ever to Turkey's leaders and public, the country has boldly stepped up its engagement with the Middle East, scoring some notable diplomatic successes. Indeed, Turkey is now firmly set to become a regional power - a development that the EU would be wise to use to its advantage by reviving the accession process.... read

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The Information State

Esther Dyson Series: Net World

2009-01-19

The new US administration is planning to appoint a chief technology officer, following the lead of most large corporations nowadays. But what most countries need is a chief information officer – someone who thinks about information as an agent of change, not just as an agent of efficiency.... read

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The Obama Surprise

Richard N. Haass Series: The Statesmen's Debate

2009-01-19

Now that George W. Bush is gone, other countries will find that genuine multilateralism requires their willingness and ability to commit resources to deal with pressing challenges. Obama is likely to be more diplomatic than Bush, but he is also likely to be more demanding.... read

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American Retreats

Bennett Ramberg Series: The World in Words

2009-01-19

As Barack Obama’s incoming administration debates the pace and consequences of withdrawal from Iraq, it would do well to examine the strategic impact of other American exits in the final decades of the twentieth century. In case after case, despite immediate costs to America’s reputation, disengagement ultimately redounded to America’s advantage.... read

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The Unreality of the “Real” Business Cycle

Robert Skidelsky Series: Against the Current

2009-01-19

Testifying recently before a United States congressional committee, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the recent financial meltdown had shattered his “intellectual structure.” That structure turns out to be based on a bastardized version of the great economist Joseph Schumpeter's concept of "creative destruction" as the driving force of capitalism.... read

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Will Hamas Win the Peace?

Mohammed Yaghi Series: Islam

2009-01-19

While Palestinians will remember today’s horrific war in Gaza with pain and bitterness for generations to come, what cannot be foreseen is how they will view Hamas. How the fighting ends will determine whether Hamas can claim a victory – and whether Palestinians will believe them.... read

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A Relationship Strengthened by Crisis

David H. McCormick Series: The Asian Century

2009-01-16

The US and Asia will be at the center of any effective multilateral action to stabilize the global financial system and economy, and to address the root causes of the current crisis. So both sides must seek to enhance cooperation and leverage regional, multilateral, and bilateral dialogues and relationships to ensure the integrity and efficacy of these efforts.... read

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Recession Insurance

Robert J. Shiller Series: Finance in the 21st Century

2009-01-15

The IMF's Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, and several IMF economists have recent proposed that governments offer businesses and/or individuals “recession insurance.” This might work, since it would reduce uncertainty, which has placed a lot of spending decisions – by businesses (on higher output) and by consumers (on the items that businesses produce) – on hold.... read

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Hamas’s Real Enemies

Barry Rubin Series: The World in Words

2009-01-14

Virtually all Arab states – other than Iran’s ally, Syria – and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority want Hamas to be defeated in the Gaza Strip. Given their self-interest in thwarting Islamist revolutionary groups, especially those aligned with Iran, few leaders are inclined to listen to the “Arab street” – which in any case is far quieter now than during previous conflicts with Israel.... read

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Thirty Years of “Test-Tube” Babies

Peter Singer Series: The Ethics of Life

2009-01-14

Many, including the Catholic Church, still oppose in vitro fertilization on ethical grounds. However, as the recent birth of a baby to a 70-year-old woman shows, the real ethical issue is not IVF itself, but the limits of its use.... read

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Deflation and Democracy

Harold James Series: Capitalism Then and Now

2009-01-13

The current financial crisis, like all those that preceded it, has undermined the sense that we can put an accurate price on assets. But, while many people are now convinced that this shortcoming is inherent in the financial system, uncertainties about value also expose deep problems in the political order. ... read

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One Crisis, One World

Kemal Derviş and Juan Somavia Series: Frontiers of Growth

2009-01-12

Any crisis is also an opportunity. The current economic crisis has demonstrated that the destinies of countries around the world are linked, which means that policy coordination and a global strategy that instills confidence and creates hope will bring a quicker and stronger recovery to us all.... read

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The Climate Change Safari Park

Bjørn Lomborg Series: Global Warning

2009-01-12

Many people – including America’s new president – believe that global warming is the preeminent issue of our time, and that cutting carbon emissions is one of the most virtuous things we can do. In fact, cutting emissions is more like maintaining safari parks: an indulgence that makes rich people feel good about themselves, but that poor people can't afford.... read

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A Squandered Golden Opportunity

Henry Miller Series: Science and Society

2009-01-12

Nine years after its creation, despite its vast potential to benefit humanity – and a negligible probability of harm to human health or the environment – genetically modified "Golden Rice" remains hung up in regulatory red tape, with no end in sight. In the absence of comprehensive regulatory reform, the same fate awaits more recent creations, like cancer-fighting tomatoes.... read

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A Time to Experiment

Dani Rodrik Series: Roads to Prosperity

2009-01-12

As the global economic crisis deepens and spreads, policymakers need to shed received wisdom and forget useless dichotomies such as “markets versus government” or “nation-state versus globalization.” The more pragmatically and creatively they act, the more quickly the world economy will recover.... read

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India’s Israel Envy

Shashi Tharoor Series:

2009-01-12

As Israeli planes and tanks exact a heavy toll on Gaza, India’s leaders and strategic thinkers have been watching with an unusual degree of interest – and some empathy. When Indians watch Israel take the fight to the enemy, some cannot resist wishing that they could do something similar in Pakistan. ... read

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Neighbors

A.B. Yehoshua Series: The World in Words

2009-01-12

Israelis must begin to realize a simple fact: Arabs are not metaphysical creatures, but human beings who have it within themselves to change. They will also continue to be Israel's neighbors, so, when Israelis decide to fight a war against them, they must consider very carefully the character of that war, its duration, and the effect of its violence.... read

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The Dark Side of Self-Determination

Joseph S. Nye Series: Of Might and Right

2009-01-09

National self-determination, the rallying cry of post-Habsburg Europe and post-colonial Africa, has turned out to be an ambiguous moral principle. Today, with less than 10% of the world’s states being homogeneous, treating self-determination as a primary moral principle could have disastrous consequences in many regions.... read

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Reviving Muslim Democracy

Charles Tannock Series: The Asian Century

2009-01-09

As fears about the Islamization of politics in the Muslim world grow, Bangladesh, with the world’s fourth-largest Muslim population (114 million), has moved, stunningly, in the opposite direction. Indeed, the decisive defeat of the country’s Islamists in the recent parliamentary election may have revived the viability of “Muslim democracy” around the world.... read

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The End of the Monroe Doctrine

Juan Gabriel Tokatlian Series: Latin America

2009-01-08

The Monroe Doctrine – which in 1823 proclaimed all of Latin America to be a zone of exclusive US interest – is withering away. With hostility to US leadership and interests rife in the region, the best thing Barack Obama's incoming administration can do to improve relations is to declare the doctrine dead once and for all.... read

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South Asia at War

Hassan Abbas Series: The World in Words

2009-01-07

Last month’s terrorist assault in Mumbai targeted not only India’s economy and sense of security. Its broader goal was to smash the India-Pakistan détente that has been taking shape since 2004. ... read

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China’s Best Hope

Ian Buruma Series: Crossing Cultures

2009-01-07

On December 10, the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, more than 300 Chinese citizens, – law professors to businessmen, farmers, and even some government officials – put their names to a remarkable document, entitled Charter 08. Predictably, the government has responded to the latest homegrown demand for democracy with arrests and harassment.... read

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Bush’s Dying Days in Gaza

Álvaro de Vasconcelos Series: Europe at Home and Abroad

2009-01-07

In the days before Barack Obama takes office, while a power vacuum persists in the US, the EU has a unique role to play in international initiatives to end the violence and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza. To succeed, it must pursue the policy launched by the French presidency, giving priority to a ceasefire and distancing itself from Israel’s disproportionate use of force.... read

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An Answer to the Russian Challenge

Joschka Fischer Series: The Rebel Realist

2009-01-06

For 19 years, the West (America and Europe) has been putting off answering the critical strategic question of what role post-Soviet Russia should play globally and in the European state order. But there is simply too much at stake to procrastinate any longer: Russia belongs in NATO.... read

Comments: 1 Recommended: 0 Read: 11349

The Rocky Road to Recovery

Joseph E. Stiglitz Series: Unconventional Economic Wisdom

2009-01-06

A consensus now exists that America’s recession – already a year old – is likely to be long and deep, and that almost all countries will be affected. Still, there is insufficient appreciation of some of the underlying problems facing the global economy, without which it is unlikely that the current global recession will give way to robust growth.... read

Comments: 2 Recommended: 0 Read: 19383

Breaking the Windows Barrier

H. T. Goranson and Ryuji Takaki Series: Science and Society

2009-01-05

The new year is beginning with Microsoft previewing its next-generation operating system, Windows 7, which is remarkable only in that it is almost the same as every previous version. But if we place form, in its broadest sense, at the heart of the user interface, we can begin to imagine designs that enable multiple levels of understanding and thus convey complex subtleties.... read

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Has America Lost its Mojo?

Kenneth Rogoff Series: The Unbound Economy

2009-01-05

You know that American self-confidence is shaken when even George Bush starts expressing fear that the financial crisis may turn out worse than the Great Depression of the 1930’s. But it will require a lot more bad luck and policy blunders before the world gets to that point.... read

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A Czech Moment

Karel Schwarzenberg Series: Europe at Home and Abroad

2009-01-05

As the Czech Republic takes over the EU presidency, no one in Europe should fear that it has some nostalgic or idiosyncratic agenda that it wants to impose on the Union. On the contrary, events have imposed an agenda on Europe that we cannot escape and for which solidarity – true union – will be needed.... read

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Central Asia’s Waking Giant

Marcel de Haas Series: The Asian Century

2009-01-02

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization brings together almost half the world’s population, several members own nuclear weapons, many are big energy suppliers, and it includes some of the world’s fastest growing economies. But few outside Central Asia have heard much about it, and the West is missing an important opportunity by not engaging it.... read

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Hamas’s Zero-Sum Game

Fania Oz-Salzberger Series: The World in Words

2009-01-02

While theories of just war instruct us not to hurt non-combatants, Hamas and its military arm have made a conscious decision, banking on global humanitarian concerns, to ensure that Israel hits as many civilians as possible. Indeed, no regime has ever used its citizens so deliberately as tools to arouse world sympathy, as hostages to modern sensitivities.... read

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